Although the theory is interesting, nothing has been confirmed just yet. Meanwhile, theories about BTC’s next move are also running rampant, especially after the crypto’s recent rally. Some analysts predict Bitcoin will hit a six-figure valuation by the end of 2024, boosted by inflows into ETFs. VanEck also recently reaffirmed its $180K price prediction for Bitcoin. AI-driven fund Intelligent Alpha is also exploring BTC’s potential, and predicted a rise to $140K under favorable conditions.
Theory Suggests Satoshi Is Selling Old Stash
A new theory surrounding the identity of Bitcoin’s mysterious creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, has emerged. The theory suggests that Nakamoto might have been strategically liquidating Bitcoin holdings from early wallets since 2019.
According to a Nov. 19 post by Bitcoin research firm BTCparser, several Bitcoin wallet addresses from 2010, each holding 50 BTC, stayed dormant until what they referred to as the “2010 megawhale” began moving coins in November of 2019. The researchers propose that Nakamoto may be behind these wallets, and has been carefully selling the holdings while avoiding transactions from the original 2009 wallets. This was likely done to stay anonymous and to avoid drawing attention to the primary stash.
BTCparser’s theory paints a picture of a well planned effort by Nakamoto to preserve privacy. By using the 2010 wallets instead of the original 2009 addresses, the Bitcoin creator could effectively liquidate funds without risking identification.
The coins were reportedly pooled into a single P2SH address before being distributed to multiple bech32 addresses, known for their efficiency and low transaction costs. The first recorded sale happened in November of 2019, and involved $5 million worth of Bitcoin. More sales followed, and included transactions ranging from $6–8 million in March of 2020, $11–13 million in October of 2020, and a larger $176 million liquidation on Nov. 15 of 2024. These increasing sales volumes seem to align with Bitcoin's rising market value, which suggests that the whale is taking a strategic approach to cashing out.
BTCparser indicated that Coinbase, which was the exchange used to liquidate these funds, might hold critical information about the individual or entity behind the transactions unless intermediaries were used to obscure the trail.
This theory is the latest development in the ongoing speculation about Satoshi’s identity, which has included figures like Peter Todd, Nick Szabo, Adam Back, and Hal Finney. While a recent HBO documentary controversially claimed Todd invented Bitcoin, he and others dismissed these conclusions as baseless. For now, the debate over Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity remains unresolved.
Bitcoin on Track for a Six-Figure New Year?
While theories about Bitcoin’s creator are still being debated, BTC’s next move is also being theorized about. Bitcoin’s price trajectory recently captured a lot of attention as prediction markets suggest a strong likelihood of the crypto reaching six figures by the end of 2024.
(Bitcoin price predictions on Kalshi)
Data from the betting platform Kalshi indicates an 87% probability that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 by Dec. 31, with a median forecast placing the price at $125,000. There is also a 7% chance of Bitcoin climbing to $150,000, and even an outside prediction of $250,000 or higher. The Kobeissi Letter revealed that figures like these imply a potential Bitcoin market cap of $2.5 trillion by Jan. 1.
Bitcoin has already seen remarkable gains this quarter after rising close to 40% in November alone and 55% in Q4 overall, according to CoinGlass. These gains happened with minimal consolidation or retests of support since the crypto broke its previous all-time high in March. While some analysts argue that a price retracement is necessary to sustain further growth, Bitcoin still defied expectations.
Institutional inflows played a crucial role in Bitcoin’s performance, and were fueled largely by the rise of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Onchain analytics firm Glassnode shared that ETFs absorbed over 90% of sell-side pressure from long-term holders who started distributing coins that were held for years as unrealized profits reach higher levels.
Bitcoin ETF flow (Source: Farside Investors)
Despite this, ETF inflows managed to offset a lot of the selling pressure, and U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded their most successful inflow week since launch. Assets under management for these ETFs even surpassed $100 billion.
VanEck Reaffirms $180K Bitcoin Forecast
Global investment manager VanEck also recently reaffirmed its ambitious $180,000 price target for Bitcoin, and even predicted that the next phase of the crypto bull market is only beginning. In a Nov. 21 report, VanEck digital asset analysts Nathan Frankovitz and Matthew Sigel attributed their bullish outlook to an increasingly favorable regulatory landscape in the United States, as well as heightened institutional interest. They believe these factors could propel Bitcoin to $180,000 in the next 18 months.
The report also mentioned that Trump’s recent election victory acted as a catalyst for Bitcoin's latest surge, which saw its price reach a peak of $99,800. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $98,286 after its price managed a small 0.10% increase over the past 24 hours. This means that BTC is still close to the psychological milestone of $100,000.
Bitcoin’s price action over the past month (Source: CoinMarketCap)
The analysts noticed that Bitcoin entered a new market phase on Nov. 11, marked by funding rates on perpetual futures contracts exceeding 10%. Historically, elevated funding rates indicated stronger short- to medium-term momentum and higher returns over the next 30 to 90 days. However, they warned that sustained high funding rates could lead to underperformance for longer-term returns. Purchases made during periods of funding rates above 10% shoed diminishing performance over the 180-day, one-year, and two-year timeframes.
While many market experts anticipate Bitcoin to surpass $100,000 by year-end, some analysts suggest that the milestone could be reached in the next week, especially considering the current bullish sentiment and market momentum.
AI-Powered Fund Predicts Bitcoin's Path to $140K
Intelligent Alpha is a unique $30 million investment fund that adopted a groundbreaking approach by delegating all major investment decisions to artificial intelligence (AI). The firm is led by founder and CEO Doug Clinton, and operates with a small human team of programmers and contractors, while the core investment committee consists of three AIs: OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, and Anthropic’s Claude. These AIs collaboratively analyze data, and make strategic investment decisions.
The AI-driven fund delivered some impressive results so far, particularly in shorting stocks. In fact, the AIs accurately predicted quality issues with Boeing’s 737 MAX and shorted the stock before a serious incident earlier this year.
Boeing 737 MAX door blowout (Source: BBC News)
While the fund predominantly focused on traditional finance, Clinton recently introduced Bitcoin trading into the mix. In exploring bitcoin’s potential, the AI models have considered a range of scenarios. In a bullish case involving favorable regulatory conditions and a Trump presidency, the models projected Bitcoin could potentially rise to $140,000.
The firm provides the AIs with curated datasets, like historical revenue and earnings projections for large-cap U.S. equities. To guide decision-making, the AIs are asked to adopt the philosophies of renowned investors like Warren Buffett and Cathie Wood. Once the AIs generate a portfolio, humans step in to validate it to make sure no errors or “hallucinations” have occurred.
Clinton acknowledges the surprising and sometimes counterintuitive picks made by the AIs, but shared that the process is improved when AIs articulate their reasoning. This not only clarifies their logic but also results in improved portfolio quality. The firm has experimented with other AI models like Grok and Lama AI but found the current trio to be the most effective and efficient team.
