In This Article
Several positive developments could have a positive impact on the Bitcoin price in the coming years. Most notably, BTC’s fixed supply and increased institutional adoption could lead to a surge in the crypto’s price over the medium to long term. Several analysts and experts are also basing their Bitcoin price prediction on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election. Pro-crypto Republican Donald Trump is facing off against Democrat and Vice President Kamala Harris, who many believe will carry on the anti-crypto policies put forward by the Biden administration. This article will take a look at all of the short, medium and long term factors that could influence BTC’s price.
Current Market Standing
Bitcoin is trading above $62K at $62,460.96 as of Sept. 19, 2024. This follows a 4% pump over the past 24 hours and a more than 7% increase on the weekly timeframe. Much of this short term performance is due to the 50 bps interest rate cut that the Federal Reserve announced on Sept. 18. BTC also has a market cap of over $1.23 trillion, and boasts a market dominance of 57.24%.
Fundamental Analysis
From a short-term fundamental analysis, there are several factors that could have a positive impact on BTC’s price.
Firstly, the outcome of the US election is predicted to have a heavy weighting on Bitcoin’s value. Analysts believe that a Trump victory could lead to BTC rallying by the end of the year. On the other hand, a Harris victory is also expected to give Bitcoin a boost. However, the positive effect of a Harris victory is expected to happen over a longer time frame. Standard Chartered believes that BTC might soar to $125K by the end of the year if Trump takes the White House, while Harris gaining the majority of the votes could be followed by Bitcoin rising to around $75K by the end of 2024. The reason that either candidate winning is expected to push BTC higher is because investors and experts believe a new President will introduce more favorable crypto policy than that of the Biden administration.
Another big factor that is bullish for BTC is the increased institutional adoption through the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) in the US at the start of 2024. Just recently, the CEO of BlackRock, the asset management giant that holds over $10 trillion in assets under management, said that he was “wrong” to dismiss Bitcoin. Analysts from the firm also labeled the leading crypto as a “unique” portfolio identifier that is not fundamentally linked to other asset classes.
The upcoming US election and the uptick in institutional adoption, coupled with BTC’s fixed supply and increased mining difficulty, could lead to a skewed supply and demand ratio that will favor the largest crypto by market cap.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin continues its consolidation within a well-defined range on the 1-week chart. The closing prices over the past five weeks show a gradual but steady increase, with Bitcoin closing at $62,406.01 in the most recent week. This bullish momentum is reflected in the technical indicators, providing a positive outlook for further upside potential.
Weekly chart for BTC/USD (Source: TradingView)
Resistance and Support Levels to Watch
Currently, BTC is hovering near key resistance levels. Immediate resistance lies at $63,437.69, with stronger resistance at $64,220.00 and $64,315.00. These levels represent potential barriers that could slow down the upward momentum if bulls fail to generate sufficient buying pressure. A clear breakout above $64,315 could open the door for new highs, potentially signaling a shift in market sentiment towards further bullish action.
On the downside, support levels are placed at $60,898.32, with stronger support found at $60,308.00 and $60,246.00. If BTC retraces, these levels may provide stabilization, offering a potential entry point for traders looking to ride the broader bullish trend. A breakdown below these supports could suggest a more extended correction, though current technical indicators suggest this scenario is less likely.
The 9-period and 20-period EMAs provide insights into the ongoing bullish trend. The 9 EMA has consistently remained above the 20 EMA, with the most recent readings at $61,198.25 and $60,399.22, respectively. This bullish crossover pattern, where the shorter EMA outpaces the longer one, indicates the presence of strong buying interest in the market. Moreover, the steadily rising nature of the EMAs suggests that the trend is firmly in place, with little sign of reversal.
Given this data, traders might view the current price action as a buying opportunity, particularly if the price manages to remain above the 9 EMA. As long as Bitcoin stays above the $60,000 support area, the uptrend is likely to remain intact.
The MACD indicator paints a strong bullish picture for Bitcoin. The MACD line is well above the signal line, with the histogram expanding in favor of the bulls. The MACD histogram has risen from 30.93 to 265.83 over the past few weeks, signaling increasing momentum and buying pressure. The divergence between the MACD and the signal line further confirms that the market's upward trend is gaining strength.
If the MACD continues to widen in this manner, it suggests that the bullish momentum is likely to persist, potentially driving Bitcoin to test and surpass the key resistance levels highlighted earlier. As the histogram remains positive, traders should expect further upside movement unless significant bearish signals emerge.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen steadily from 55.28 to 67.59 in the past five weeks, approaching the overbought territory. While the current RSI reading does not yet suggest that Bitcoin is overbought, it is moving towards levels that may trigger a correction in the near future. An RSI above 70 would indicate overbought conditions, often signaling a potential pullback or consolidation phase.
However, until the RSI crosses into overbought territory, the trend remains bullish. The RSI currently supports the continuation of the upward movement, though traders should monitor it closely for any signs of exhaustion.
Conclusion: Bullish Momentum Prevails, Eyes on Resistance
Overall, the technical indicators on the weekly chart suggest that BTC is in a strong bullish phase, with the MACD and EMAs confirming the upward trend. Resistance at $63,437.69 and $64,315.00 is key, and a breakout above these levels would likely accelerate the uptrend. Support at $60,898.32 and $60,246.00 provides a cushion for any pullbacks.
Traders should keep an eye on the RSI as it nears overbought conditions, as this could trigger a short-term correction. Nonetheless, the broader market sentiment remains positive, with strong bullish momentum driving Bitcoin’s price action in the near term.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2024
If the Bitcoin price breaks above the resistance level at $64,315, BTC might revisit its all-time high at around $73.7K by the end of the year. This surge could happen within the weeks after the US election. Thereafter, continued buy pressure could either push the leading crypto’s price higher or the crypto kind might end up stabilizing around $75K, depending on the outcome of the US election. Referring to the prediction by Standard Chartered, Trump winning could lead to the Bitcoin price breaking above $100K. Conversely, a Harris victory could see BTC hover around $70K to $75K by the end of the year.
In a bearish scenario, the Bitcoin price could test the psychological $60K mark. A drop below this point might then lead to BTC falling below $50K. Extreme pressure from sellers could then bring the crypto’s price down to around $48K by the end of the year.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025
BTC breaking above $100K by the first or second quarter of 2025 could launch the crypto into a price discovery phase towards the upside. The Bitcoin price might subsequently rise another 40% to potentially reach as high as $140K in 2025. This bullish thesis could be invalidated if the crypto fails to break above $100K by the second quarter of 2025.
In an alternative scenario, BTC could test the $40K support. Analysts and experts are concerned that the Fed’s September 2024 interest cut of 50 basis points has made it easier for the government to borrow money, which is concerning given the high spending by the US government and the increased dollar issuance in recent months.
Some analysts also predict that the interest rate cut could have a domino effect on the rest of the markets, which could lead to a recession. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes said at Token2049 this year that the market could come under pressure similar to when the Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar earlier this year. This might potentially impact the yen carry trade, which could have devastating effects for risk-on assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2030
Predicting what the Bitcoin price will be in 2030 is near impossible. However, there is a strong possibility that BTC will rise from its current level in the long term. Asset manager Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, released a report this year that found that BTC generates a return for investors after 5 years, regardless of whether they invested during a peak or during a crypto winter. If this is the case, BTC could rise to $200K by 2030. A more conservative prediction is around $120K.
Is Bitcoin A Good Investment?
Bitcoin appears to be a strong investment, especially when considering the long-term potential. Factors such as BTC’s fixed supply, rising institutional adoption, and the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election are likely to influence its price positively. Pro-crypto policies, particularly if Donald Trump wins, could lead to a significant rally. Additionally, the increasing launch of Bitcoin ETFs, such as those led by major asset managers like BlackRock, adds to BTC's appeal. While short-term corrections could occur, Bitcoin’s market fundamentals and bullish momentum suggest it remains a viable investment option for those with a long-term outlook.
Bottom line
Are you ready to invest in Bitcoin? Very few if any analysts forecast its value going down to zero, although you can’t be sure these days, so make sure you always do your own research before making investment decisions. And keep in mind that cryptocurrency prices can be extremely volatile, so trading crypto always involves a high degree of risk.
You can buy BTC from many crypto exchanges, including Binance
Disclaimer: Coinpaper does not recommend that any cryptocurrency should be bought, sold, or held by you. Always conduct your own research and consult your financial advisor before investing in any digital asset.
FAQs
What are the recent landmark developments in the crypto market influencing Bitcoin's price?
The recent approval of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States and the anticipation of the Bitcoin halving event are two major developments. The former signals increased institutional acceptance, potentially bringing more investment into cryptocurrencies, while the latter, a pre-programmed reduction in mining rewards, tends to reduce the new supply of Bitcoin, historically leading to price increases.
How does the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs affect the crypto market?
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs is seen as a pivotal moment for the crypto market, marking a significant milestone in the mainstream adoption of Bitcoin. It is expected to facilitate an influx of institutional capital into the cryptocurrency sphere, enhancing its legitimacy, accessibility, and potentially leading to an increase in Bitcoin's price.
What is the Bitcoin halving event and how does it influence Bitcoin's price?
The Bitcoin halving event is a scheduled reduction in the reward for mining new blocks, effectively halving the rate at which new bitcoins are generated. This event tends to exert upward pressure on Bitcoin's price by reducing its new supply while demand continues to grow, historically leading to significant price movements.
