Bitcoin is facing a complex market landscape this week, marked by increasing exchange inflows and uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election. Over 63,000 BTC, worth approximately $1.83 billion, were transferred to exchanges, raising concerns about potential sell-offs. Meanwhile, industry experts suggest that the outcome of the US election may have little impact on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, as the cryptocurrency continues to show resilience despite broader market pressures.
Bitcoin’s Bullish Trajectory to $100K: Why the US Election May Not Matter
As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, investors and market analysts are closely watching how political outcomes might affect major financial markets. However, for Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market, the outcome of the election may have little impact on the bullish trends that have driven prices higher in recent months.
Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings, recently shared his thoughts at the Permissionless conference in Salt Lake City, Utah, suggesting that Bitcoin is on a path to hit $100,000, regardless of which candidate wins the election. According to Tapiero, Bitcoin is a proxy for the cryptocurrency market at large, and its upward momentum seems unstoppable.
"I don’t think it really matters. Everything is going up now. The election will pass," Tapiero said during the panel discussion on Oct. 10. "Bitcoin is a proxy [for cryptocurrency generally], and I believe it will head to $100,000 relatively soon, and other [assets] will follow."
This optimistic forecast aligns with Bitcoin’s historical price action, especially as the asset has shown significant quarter-on-quarter returns since 2015. As of October 2024, Bitcoin hovers around $60,000, and many experts are confident that it is primed for another surge.
The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be highly contentious, with Republican nominee Donald Trump facing off against Democrat Kamala Harris. While Trump has voiced support for making America "the crypto capital of the world," Harris has taken a more reserved approach, only recently mentioning blockchain technology in her campaign.
Despite their different approaches, neither candidate seems to be a determining factor in Bitcoin’s projected growth, according to Tapiero and other industry leaders. The cryptocurrency sector has shown resilience amid regulatory crackdowns, particularly from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Under the current administration, led by President Joe Biden and SEC Chair Gary Gensler, the agency has aggressively pursued alleged violations by crypto companies. This has fueled the perception that Democrats are "anti-crypto," especially when compared to Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
However, it’s not all clear-cut for Trump’s side either. His recent debut of a Trump-affiliated crypto project in September received widespread criticism from the crypto community, causing some of his previous supporters to question his understanding of the space.
Political Uncertainty and Bitcoin’s Resilience
Regardless of who wins the election, many in the industry believe that Bitcoin is poised to benefit from the political and economic uncertainty surrounding the event. CK Zheng, the investment chief at ZX Squared Capital, pointed out that neither party is addressing the growing US national debt or deficit, which could lead to more investor interest in decentralized assets like Bitcoin.
"As both Republican and Democratic parties do not appropriately address the ever-increasing US debts and deficits during this election, this will be very bullish for Bitcoin, especially post the US election," Zheng said.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s next halving event in April 2024 is expected to further fuel the bullish momentum. Historically, halving events have led to significant price increases, as the reduction in Bitcoin’s supply creates scarcity, driving up demand.
While much of the current focus is on US regulations and election outcomes, the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to expand globally. Tapiero emphasized that the growing institutional interest in blockchain technology and cryptocurrency is much larger than any single election cycle. Billions of dollars in institutional capital have flowed into Bitcoin and Ethereum funds throughout 2024.
"This move toward putting all value on a Blockchain is bigger than one election," Tapiero said. "And so I think it [...] the tide continues and it rolls, and it’s also global."
Indeed, major corporations and financial institutions have increasingly embraced blockchain technology as a secure and efficient way to manage value transfers, financial transactions, and even real-world assets. From tokenized assets to decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, blockchain technology is reshaping the financial landscape in a way that transcends national borders.
The 2024 US election may introduce some policy changes, but the overall trajectory for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market appears unaffected by political swings. With the halving event on the horizon, institutional interest at an all-time high, and growing global acceptance of blockchain technology, the path to $100,000 for Bitcoin seems well within reach.
Bitcoin Faces Turbulent Week: Exchange Inflows and Silk Road Fears Cloud Price Outlook
Bitcoin’s price action has been under significant pressure throughout the week, with market data showing large inflows of BTC into crypto exchanges, signaling potential future sell-offs. As of Oct. 9, 2024, over 63,000 BTC, valued at approximately $1.83 billion, were transferred to exchanges, raising concerns about heightened selling pressure in the near term.
Data from CryptoQuant reveals that these exchange inflows were staggered over a three-day period, beginning on Oct. 7, 2024. On that day alone, roughly 28,000 BTC made its way to exchanges. The next two days saw similar trends, with an additional 23,500 BTC transferred on Oct. 8 and 12,000 BTC on Oct. 9.
Historically, large inflows of Bitcoin to exchanges are often viewed as a precursor to sell-offs. Investors typically transfer their assets from cold storage or private wallets to exchange wallets when they intend to liquidate. However, the inflows do not necessarily translate into immediate sales. The possibility of selling lingers, but timing remains uncertain, leaving market participants anxious about a potential dip.
The price of Bitcoin has seen steady declines since the beginning of the week. Starting at over $64,000 on Oct. 7, BTC fell to approximately $58,895 by the end of yesterday’s trading day. This was only the beginning of its bearish momentum. Over the next few days, Bitcoin recorded further declines, marking four consecutive red candles and breaking below a critical technical support level: the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) on Oct. 10.
The 200-day EMA is often regarded as a dynamic level of support for Bitcoin. A breach of this level tends to signal further downside risk, as it suggests that the prevailing bullish trend may have weakened. Bitcoin’s struggle to hold above this technical level has sparked fears that its recent downturn could extend further, potentially leading to a more significant correction.
In addition to exchange inflows and technical weaknesses, macroeconomic factors have contributed to Bitcoin’s slump this week. Rising inflation data, coupled with an uptick in jobless claims in the United States, has dampened investor sentiment across financial markets. This has added to Bitcoin’s volatility, as inflation concerns drive speculation on future monetary tightening policies that could negatively affect risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.
As these factors weigh on Bitcoin’s price, analysts have expressed differing views on where the market could head next. Glassnode analyst James Check believes that Bitcoin must break out of its current trading range around $60,000 to spark renewed investor interest and to potentially reach new all-time highs. However, Check and other analysts caution that a short-term pullback to prices below $50,000 remains a real possibility before a meaningful rebound occurs.
Bitcoin’s current slump comes in the context of its inability to reclaim its all-time high of approximately $74,000, which was set in March 2024. Since then, Bitcoin has traded sideways, failing to generate the bullish momentum necessary to revisit those previous highs. This stagnation has led to frustration among some market participants, who had anticipated Bitcoin to push beyond $100,000 following its halving event earlier in the year.
While Bitcoin has managed to stay resilient for much of 2024, its failure to break new highs has led some to question whether the next leg of its bull run is imminent. For now, Bitcoin continues to hover around the $60,000 mark, with investors looking for clearer signs of direction.
The Looming Shadow of Silk Road Bitcoin
Adding to the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s price action is the specter of the Silk Road Bitcoin stash. On Oct. 7, the United States Supreme Court declined to hear the case of Battle Born Investments vs United States, effectively allowing the US government to proceed with the potential sale of over 69,000 BTC seized in connection with the infamous Silk Road marketplace.
The confiscated Bitcoin, valued at approximately $4.38 billion, has yet to move from government-controlled wallets, according to data from Arkham Intelligence. However, the potential for a large-scale government sell-off of these holdings has cast a shadow over the market, as any sudden sale could introduce significant downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
The possibility of the US government liquidating these assets has prompted concern among investors, who fear that such a sell-off could coincide with other bearish factors, leading to a deeper correction in Bitcoin’s price. Despite these fears, the government has yet to signal any immediate plans to sell the Silk Road Bitcoin holdings.
With exchange inflows rising, key technical support levels breaking down, and the potential for a Silk Road sell-off looming, Bitcoin faces considerable headwinds in the short term. However, market sentiment remains divided on whether Bitcoin’s price will continue its downward trajectory or if it can stage a recovery in the coming weeks.
