Donald Trump, however, has positioned himself as a very strong advocate for the crypto industry, and publicly vowed to support Bitcoin mining, self-custody, and deregulation by firing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler. The election also recently sparked increased crypto investment inflows, with Bitcoin leading the charge. There was also a massive 500+% surge in prediction market activity with the presidential election around the corner. Additionally, Trump's family-backed World Liberty Financial (WLF) is preparing for its token presale, and attracted a lot of attention from investors.
Harris vs. Trump on Crypto Policy
United States presidential candidate Kamala Harris seems to be a lot more open to cryptocurrency than President Joe Biden, but not as supportive as her rival, Donald Trump, according to a report from Galaxy Research. Harris has shared plans to improve the regulatory landscape for US-based crypto firms, yet her stances on other key issues, like Bitcoin mining, self-custody, and taxes, are viewed more unfavorably by the crypto community.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, shared on X that although Trump presents a more favorable approach to the crypto industry, there is still cautious optimism that Harris could provide more support than Biden has so far. While Biden's administration has taken a very strict stance on crypto, which is proven by the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) many regulatory actions against crypto firms, both Harris and Trump offer a potential shift in approach.
Trump, who is the Republican nominee, has made some very bold promises to turn the US into the “crypto capital of the world” and stated that he plans to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler if he gets elected. His pro-crypto positions also include advocating for Bitcoin mining in the US and defending the right to self-custody. This makes it possible for people to hold their crypto assets directly without relying on third-party custodians.
In contrast, Harris has been a lot quieter about the crypto space. However, she has shown increased interest in blockchain technology since September, which could indicate that she sees it as a critical area for the US to maintain global dominance. Galaxy Research suggests that Harris could take a more constructive approach to crypto regulation than Biden, particularly after the resignation of SEC enforcement head Gurbir Grewal.
It is important to remember that Harris is still critical of certain aspects of the industry, particularly on the issue of taxes. Galaxy pointed out that Harris plans to roll back Trump’s tax cuts, which would likely increase capital gains taxes on crypto holders. Unlike Trump, who supports Bitcoin mining and self-custody, Harris has not embraced these positions at all.
Both candidates are still in favor of maintaining certain financial sanctions against adversaries using crypto, limiting their support for decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols that circumvent Know Your Customer (KYC) or Anti-Money Laundering (AML) regulations.
US Elections Boost Crypto Inflows
It is getting harder and harder to ignore the fact that crypto is becoming a major factor in the upcoming presidential election in November. In fact, crypto investment products had another strong week last week. Bitcoin led the way, and posted weekly inflows of $419 million.
According to CoinShares' latest Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report, digital asset investment products saw a total of $407 million in inflows between Oct. 5 and 11. This happened after a smaller sell-off of $127 million the previous week. The previous week’s decline was mainly attributed to stronger-than-expected economic data from the US, but last week's inflows seem to have been driven by political factors.
James Butterfill, CoinShares' head of research, suggested that the increase in crypto investment inflows was likely tied to the upcoming US elections rather than changes in monetary policy. He believes that the now polling favoring Republicans, who are generally seen as more supportive of crypto, contributed to the boost in inflows and prices. Additionally, reports from major publications like The New York Times indicated that the US Senate may shift from Democratic to Republican control after the upcoming November elections.
Flows by asset (Source: CoinShares Fund Flow Weekly Report)
Bitcoin was the main beneficiary of the recent political developments, with $419 million in inflows, while short-Bitcoin investment products saw outflows of $6.3 million. Blockchain equity ETFs also saw inflows totaling $34 million, which made it one of the largest weekly inflows for these products in 2024.
The surge in Bitcoin’s price, which rose from around $61,900 on Oct. 6 to close to $63,300 by Oct. 12, also supported the positive trend. Multi-asset investment products saw minor inflows of $1.5 million, continuing a 17-week streak of positive inflows. These inflows build on a broader trend that started in mid-September. Almost $2 billion was added to crypto investment products between Sept. 7 and Sept. 28, according to CoinShares reports.
Prediction Markets Surge as US Elections Fuels Bets
Prediction markets also saw some impressive growth in the third quarter of 2024, which was mainly driven by bets on the upcoming US presidential election. Betting volume on the largest prediction markets surged by 565.4% to reach $3.1 billion. This is up from the $463.3 million in the previous quarter. This rapid increase was largely due to the increased interest in the US elections as they draw closer, according to a report by CoinGecko.
Decentralized prediction markets allow users to bet on specific outcomes, which could offer more accurate predictions for the election than traditional polling methods, according to billionaire Elon Musk. Polymarket is the largest decentralized platform in the space, and accounted for more than 99% of the market share as of September.
Top prediction markets’ betting volume & number of bets (Source: CoinGecko)
A big portion of its volume is driven by bets on the outcome of the US presidential election. So far, $1.7 billion in bets have been placed on the "US Presidential Election Winner" in 2024, making it the most popular event on the platform.
During the third quarter, Polymarket experienced huge growth, with betting volume rising by 713% and transactions increasing by 848%. The platform holds more than $175 million in total value locked (TVL), according to DefiLlama data.
Presidential election odds (Source: Polymarket)
So far, former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in Polymarket’s betting odds. Trump has a 55.3% chance of winning the election, while 44.4% of users placed their bet on Harris. The odds shifted in Trump’s favor on Oct. 4, and by Oct. 12, Trump was leading by over 10 points.
Over 100K Investors Whitelisted for Trump-Backed WLF
Meanwhile, the Trump-family-backed World Liberty Financial whitelisted over 100,000 accredited US investors ahead of its WLFI token presale. The presale launches today, just three weeks before the presidential election. Trump is the "chief crypto advocate" for the project, with his sons Eric and Donald Jr serving as "web3 ambassadors," and Barron as the "DeFi visionary."
The project plans to raise $300 million through token sales, valuing the platform at $1.5 billion. WLFI will serve as the governance token, and will allow users to vote on protocol changes while complying with US regulations. World Liberty Financial plans to offer services like borrowing and lending cryptocurrencies, creating liquidity pools, and transacting with stablecoins.
Non-US investors were subject to local regulations before being whitelisted. The platform's founders, Zachary Folkman and Chase Herro, pointed out the participation of some well known crypto figures, including Stani Kulechov of Aave, during a spaces call on Monday.
