Tech billionaire Elon Musk and American computer scientist Nick Szabo have recently found themselves at the center of major speculation within the cryptocurrency world. Musk, in a social media post, endorsed the decentralized prediction market Polymarket as a more accurate gauge of the 2024 US presidential election than traditional polls. Meanwhile, Szabo has emerged as the frontrunner on the same platform to be named as the mysterious creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, in an upcoming HBO documentary.
Elon Musk Endorses Polymarket as Accurate Predictor of 2024 US Presidential Election
Technology magnate Elon Musk has reignited public interest in the decentralized predictions market Polymarket, suggesting that it could predict the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election with more accuracy than traditional polling. Musk’s endorsement of the platform adds a new dimension to his growing support for former President Donald Trump, whom he has been publicly backing in recent months.
The comments came via a post on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, which Musk owns. In the post, Musk argued that Polymarket’s predictive capabilities stem from the fact that users place financial stakes on the outcomes of political events, in contrast to traditional polls, which rely on voluntary and non-financial participation. According to Musk, the presence of real money on the line may incentivize more accurate predictions.
Polymarket is a decentralized predictions market where users can wager on the outcome of various events by staking USD Coin (USDC). The platform’s decentralized nature ensures that outcomes are not controlled or influenced by any central authority. As of Musk’s post on Oct. 6, Polymarket data showed that Trump led Democratic candidate Kamala Harris by about three percentage points. This margin—though small—was enough for Musk to claim that Polymarket was a more reliable predictor than traditional polling.
"Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line," Musk posted, sparking discussions about the potential of decentralized prediction markets to upend traditional polling models.
Supporters of prediction markets like Polymarket argue that when people place actual money on their forecasts, they are incentivized to think more carefully about their choices. In this sense, a bet can serve as a more sincere indicator of belief, offering a more accurate picture of likely outcomes. In contrast, traditional polls, while useful, are often criticized for reflecting only voter intention at a specific moment, which can shift as campaigns progress.
Musk’s support for Trump has become increasingly public. At a recent campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania, Musk gave a speech in favor of Trump, further solidifying his alignment with the former president. While Musk has been known for his varied political leanings in the past, his alignment with Trump signals his growing interest in influencing political discourse through technology platforms like X and decentralized systems like Polymarket.
Musk’s endorsement of Polymarket comes at a time when traditional polling methods are facing increased scrutiny. With the rise of online misinformation and the polarization of political views, polling data has been criticized for inaccuracies. The question of whether or not polling can truly capture the pulse of the electorate is a point of contention for many political analysts.
Polymarket’s growing popularity has led some analysts to suggest that prediction markets could serve as a “public good,” providing a real-time, crowd-sourced snapshot of how people believe events will unfold. The US presidential election has proven to be the platform’s most active event to date, with thousands of users staking their USDC on the outcome.
Yet, while Musk and others believe in the accuracy of markets like Polymarket, there are limits to how reliable these platforms can be. Critics argue that the ability to financially predict an election outcome may not perfectly align with how individuals vote in the real world. For instance, someone may predict a Trump victory on Polymarket but still vote for Kamala Harris, creating a dissonance between market predictions and actual electoral outcomes.
Moreover, prediction markets are vulnerable to the same biases that can affect traditional polls. Those with significant financial resources may be able to influence markets by placing large bets, while others may intentionally bet against their own political preferences for financial gain. This introduces the possibility of market manipulation, which could undermine the very accuracy Musk praises.
Polymarket's Rise to Prominence
Polymarket has continued to gain momentum as a go-to platform for speculative betting on current events. While its accuracy in political forecasting is still up for debate, the sheer volume of bets being placed on the 2024 US presidential election has made it a focal point for discussions about the future of prediction markets. The site also allows users to bet on a wide array of events beyond politics, including sports, cultural moments, and even cryptocurrency developments.
Prediction markets like Polymarket represent an intriguing intersection of technology, finance, and politics. As they grow in popularity, they could significantly disrupt how the public think about forecasting and data analysis. However, questions remain about their long-term accuracy and whether they can truly serve as a replacement for traditional methods of polling and forecasting.
Nick Szabo Emerges as Frontrunner in Polymarket’s Satoshi Nakamoto Bets Ahead of HBO Documentary
The race to uncover the true identity of Bitcoin’s enigmatic creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, has taken an unexpected turn as American computer scientist Nick Szabo has overtaken cryptographer Len Sassaman as the frontrunner in Polymarket’s betting pools. This shift comes in anticipation of HBO’s upcoming documentary Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery, which claims to finally name the person behind the pseudonymous inventor of Bitcoin.
As of the latest Polymarket odds, Szabo now has a 27.9% chance of being named Nakamoto, outpacing Sassaman, who once led the field but has since dropped to 14%. Trailing behind are Blockstream CEO Adam Back with 4.3%, while other well-known figures such as Hal Finney and controversial software programmer Paul Le Roux have even slimmer odds.
Polymarket bettors have been closely following developments surrounding HBO’s documentary, and Szabo’s rise to the top of the odds board is a significant development. Initially, Sassaman held a commanding 68% odds when the betting market first opened on Oct. 4. However, those odds plummeted following remarks by the documentary’s producer, Cullen Hoback, who in an interview with CNN on Oct. 7 hinted that he had confronted who he believes is the real Satoshi Nakamoto in person. This key detail, according to market analysts, likely led to a reassessment of Sassaman’s odds, given that he passed away in 2011.
“We make a strong case [...] and I think their reaction is in some ways more telling than even the evidence itself,” Hoback said, adding fuel to speculation that the real Nakamoto may still be alive and active in the cryptocurrency world.
Hoback's suggestion that Nakamoto might still be involved also cast doubt on other deceased figures previously believed to be Bitcoin’s creator, including American software developer Hal Finney, who died in 2014. Finney, who famously received the first Bitcoin transaction from Nakamoto, now holds just 2.7% odds on Polymarket.
Adding to the intrigue, Sassaman’s widow, Meredith Patterson, disclosed to DL News on Oct. 8 that HBO did not approach her during the production of the documentary, further diminishing the likelihood that Sassaman will be named as Nakamoto in the upcoming reveal.
Nick Szabo’s prominence in the Satoshi Nakamoto debate is not new. The computer scientist is widely credited with the creation of Bit Gold, an early precursor to Bitcoin. While Bit Gold never launched as a fully realized cryptocurrency, many of its foundational principles—including peer-to-peer networking, proof-of-work mining, and cryptography—became essential elements in Bitcoin’s design. This connection has led many to suspect that Szabo could be the mysterious Nakamoto, despite his consistent denials of any involvement in Bitcoin’s creation.
Other Contenders and the “Other/Multiple” Option
As Szabo takes the lead, other prominent figures remain in the running, albeit with lower odds. Blockstream CEO Adam Back, a key figure in the cryptographic community, holds a 4.3% chance of being named Nakamoto, while notorious figures like Paul Le Roux, who is currently serving a prison sentence for drug trafficking and cybercrime, have a 2.8% chance according to Polymarket bettors.
One of the more intriguing options in the betting market is the “Other/Multiple” category, which currently boasts the highest odds at 37%. This reflects the ongoing uncertainty among Polymarket users about whether Nakamoto’s identity will ever be definitively tied to a single individual or if Bitcoin’s creation was the result of a collaborative effort. This theory has persisted for years, fueled by the intricate nature of Bitcoin’s design, which some believe could have required the expertise of more than one person.
Additionally, figures like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, controversial former Nakamoto claimant Craig Wright, and others such as Dorian Nakamoto and David Kleiman remain long-shot contenders, though their odds continue to dwindle as the documentary’s air date approaches.
The anticipation surrounding HBO’s Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery has reached a fever pitch, particularly after Hoback confirmed in an Oct. 5 post on X that his documentary would “land on a specific name.” This statement has led many to believe that Hoback is confident in naming one person as Nakamoto, a revelation that could have far-reaching implications for the cryptocurrency world.
If Szabo, Sassaman, or another prominent figure is definitively linked to Bitcoin’s creation, it could end one of the most enduring mysteries in modern finance. However, the reveal could also raise new questions, particularly about Nakamoto’s potential influence on the future of Bitcoin. Hoback’s cryptic comments about confronting Nakamoto in person suggest that the inventor—or someone claiming to be them—may still be involved in the project or in other blockchain-related endeavors.
As speculation continues to build, the crypto community remains divided on whether HBO’s documentary will provide the closure many are seeking or if it will merely add to the lore surrounding Nakamoto’s identity.
