Ark Invest’s projections are based on growing institutional adoption, Bitcoin’s finite supply, and its expanding role as a safe haven in emerging markets. The firm also increased its base and bear case projections to $1.2 million and $500,000 respectively. The firm's report was released amid a record exodus of Bitcoin from crypto exchanges, which signals that there is a shift toward long-term holding. Publicly traded companies have aggressively accumulated Bitcoin, and contributed a lot to this trend.
Outside the US, Asian firms like Japan’s Metaplanet and Hong Kong’s HK Asia Holdings are also building substantial reserves. Meanwhile, the town of Fornelli in Italy recently announced on Facebook that it will honor Bitcoin's creator with a public monument. Fornelli holds the unique distinction of having the highest density of Bitcoin adoption in the world.
Bitcoin Could Outgrow Gold and Rival Global Economies
ARK Invest, the leading asset manager, recently raised its long-term Bitcoin price forecasts, and projected a bullish case of $2.4 million per BTC by the end of 2030. The firm’s research was released on April 24, and outlines an updated model built on Bitcoin’s total addressable market, projected adoption rates, and its fixed supply trajectory.
Bitcoin price projections (Source: ARK Invest)
The bullish scenario sees Bitcoin achieving a 6.5% penetration of the $200 trillion financial market, excluding gold. This alone could drive massive capital inflows, according to ARK analyst David Puell, who believes that institutional investment is the strongest growth driver in their model.
In addition to the bull case, ARK adjusted its base and bear case predictions to $1.2 million and $500,000 respectively, up from $710,000 and $300,000 earlier this year. Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold” is another pillar of ARK’s projections, and the firm estimates that Bitcoin could capture up to 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap. The third major driver, accounting for 13.5% of the bull case projection, is Bitcoin’s adoption as a safe haven in emerging markets. Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
Bitcoin potential use cases (Source: ARK Invest)
Other contributing factors include nation-state and corporate adoption of Bitcoin for treasury reserves, as well as the growth of Bitcoin-based financial services. If Bitcoin were to hit ARK’s bullish projection, it would command a market cap of $49.2 trillion based on an estimated circulating supply of 20.5 million coins by 2030. That valuation would surpass the combined GDP of the United States and China and place Bitcoin ahead of gold as the largest asset class globally.
Even in the more conservative scenarios, Bitcoin will need to keep up extraordinary growth rates. The $500,000 bear case implies a 32% annual growth rate, while the $1.2 million base case will require a 53% annual increase. These levels are very rarely seen for trillion-dollar assets.
These projections were made after Bitcoin showed some renewed strength in 2025, and rebounded from a low of $75,160 to trade near $94,000. This momentum was boosted by renewed investor confidence and the Trump administration’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
BTC’s price action over the past week (Source: CoinMarketCap)
Bitcoin Leaving Exchanges at Record Rates
Supporting BTC’s current momentum is the fact that Bitcoin reserves on crypto exchanges fell to their lowest level since November of 2018, driven largely by accelerating accumulation from publicly traded companies. According to a recent report from Fidelity Digital Assets, the amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges declined to approximately 2.6 million BTC.
This sharp decrease means that more than 425,000 BTC was moved off exchanges since November. It could also mean that there is a growing preference for long-term holding over active trading among investors.
Most of the buying activity has been attributed to public companies, which acquired close to 350,000 BTC during this period. Fidelity pointed out that this trend is expected to gain even more momentum in the near future.
The firm’s digital asset subsidiary, which launched in 2018, said that the shift of Bitcoin from exchanges into corporate treasuries is a key signal of maturing institutional adoption. As the issuer of one of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in the US, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, the firm plays a central role in the growing infrastructure supporting institutional Bitcoin exposure.
(Source: X)
The largest buyer by far has been Strategy, the business intelligence firm-turned-Bitcoin holding company founded by Michael Saylor. Since November, Strategy purchased 285,980 BTC. This is 81% of all Bitcoin acquired by publicly listed companies over that timeframe. More recently, the company shared that it added another 6,556 BTC to its holdings.
Outside the United States, public firms in Asia are also embracing Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. Japan’s Metaplanet now holds 5,000 BTC and plans to double that figure by year’s end, according to CEO Simon Gerovich. In Hong Kong, HK Asia Holdings is looking to raise over $8 million to potentially expand its own Bitcoin reserves.
The rapid drawdown of exchange-held Bitcoin, paired with increasing corporate accumulation, proves that there is a major shift in investor behavior. With institutions treating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and safe-haven asset, the supply available for trading continues to shrink, which could have far-reaching implications for the market’s long-term price dynamics.
Italian Town Dedicates Statue to Satoshi
It is not just companies that are embracing Bitcoin. The small Italian municipality of Fornelli, located in the Molise region, is set to unveil a monument honoring Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin.
In an announcement that was posted to Facebook on April 23, the local government revealed that the artwork, created by artist Mattia Pannoni, will be officially presented on May 1 in the town’s central Piazza Umberto I. The monument is being financed by the municipality itself.
(Source: Facebook)
Fornelli Mayor Giovanni Tedeschi believes it is important to support forward-thinking ideas, particularly those championed by the younger generation. According to the local administration, Fornelli holds the unique distinction of having the highest density of Bitcoin adoption in the world, despite its modest population of just 1,800 residents.
The decision to honor Nakamoto was made after a trend seen in other regions that have embraced cryptocurrency to varying degrees, like El Salvador’s Bitcoin Beach and the crypto-friendly Swiss city of Zug. Though the true identity of Nakamoto is still very much a mystery, artists have long attempted to portray the enigmatic figure through faceless sculptures and symbolic depictions.
Statue of Satoshi Nakamoto, creator of Bitcoin, unveiled in Lugano
In keeping with that tradition, the new monument in Fornelli is expected to reflect Nakamoto’s anonymity, a hallmark of previous artistic tributes in the crypto world.
