Analysts believe potential capital flight from China and a weakening US dollar could drive further BTC gains. Meanwhile, institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow, with major financial players preparing to embrace crypto. At Paris Blockchain Week, experts pointed out recent regulatory progress and predicted a surge in traditional finance adoption. Supporting this trend, Cboe announced a new Bitcoin futures product.
Bitcoin Gains Momentum as Yuan Falls
Tensions between the United States and China escalated once again after President Donald Trump imposed a 104% tariff on Chinese imports. In response to this, Beijing allowed the yuan to weaken significantly against the US dollar, reaching its lowest point since 2023.
This move is seen as a strategic counter to rising trade pressures,and it is fueling speculation that China is preparing to devalue its currency even more. This could have far-reaching consequences for global markets and digital assets like Bitcoin.
Dollar-to-Yuan exchange rate (Source: Bloomberg)
Analysts believe that expectations for yuan devaluation are rising rapidly. Ju Wang of BNP Paribas stated that the pressure on the Chinese currency is unlikely to ease anytime soon. The weakening yuan also reignited conversations about capital flight from China, with investors potentially moving their wealth into hard assets like Bitcoin. Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, suggested that such a capital shift is likely, which was a view shared by Bybit CEO Ben Zhou. He believes Bitcoin stands to benefit from Beijing’s currency strategy.
Bybit has stepped up as a key platform for Chinese crypto investors. The exchange recently confirmed that users in mainland China can access its services without a VPN, although trading in yuan is still prohibited. Still, its growing accessibility and popularity, particularly among derivatives traders, positions it well to absorb an influx of capital seeking refuge from traditional markets.
As the trade war deepens, volatility in currency markets is becoming the new norm. Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra FX Solutions, recently talked about the potential for extreme fluctuations in foreign exchange markets as a result of geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, the US dollar itself showed considerable weakness since Trump’s return to office, with the DXY Dollar Index plunging from nearly 110 to below 103. Julien Bittel from Global Macro Investor said that the drop between late February and early March was one of the biggest declines in a decade.
Given Bitcoin’s historical inverse relationship with the US dollar, a continued decline in the greenback could provide more momentum for the current bull market. With both the yuan and dollar under pressure, Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a safe haven for capital navigating the chaos of global macroeconomic shifts.
Big Banks Ready to Embrace Bitcoin
Despite the turbulence caused by US trade tariffs and the broader market meltdown, industry leaders at major crypto firms are still very optimistic about institutional Bitcoin adoption in 2025. At Paris Blockchain Week on April 8, Messari CEO Eric Turner and Sygnum Bank co-founder Thomas Eichenberger shared a bullish outlook on how traditional finance will increasingly embrace Bitcoin and crypto services later this year.
Turner pointed out that while the second quarter of 2025 might stay a bit subdued, he anticipates major developments in the latter half of the year. He pointed to a broader wave of regulatory acceptance, not only in the United States but globally, as a major driver of this shift. With key advancements in market structure and stablecoin regulation gaining traction, Turner is confident that the crypto space is on the brink of a major transition toward institutional legitimacy and integration.
Rather than focusing only on the pro-crypto narrative surrounding President Donald Trump, Turner said that the collective stance of regulatory bodies like the SEC is what truly matters. He argued that the convergence of supportive policies across various government agencies is really laying the groundwork for sustainable growth in the crypto market.
Paris Blockchain Week
Eichenberger fully agreed with this, and stated that international banks with a presence in the US are closely monitoring the regulatory landscape and are preparing to roll out crypto services. These banks, he said, have long had strategic plans for offering services like crypto custody and spot trading but were previously hesitant because of fears of regulatory pushback.
Now, with a more transparent and favorable regulatory environment emerging, Eichenberger believes that banks no longer have any reason to hesitate. He expects that many global financial institutions will act on their plans and begin launching crypto services in earnest throughout 2025.
Cboe Unveils New Bitcoin Futures Product
Turner and Eichenberger’s predictions might not be so far fetched, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) recently unveiled plans to launch a new Bitcoin futures derivative product later this month. According to an April 7 announcement, the exchange plans to introduce FTSE Bitcoin Index futures on April 28, pending regulatory approval.
Part of Cboe’s April 7 announcement
The futures will be based on the VanEck Bitcoin Strategy ETF (XBTF) and will be cash-settled, representing one-tenth of the value of the FTSE Bitcoin Index. Contracts will settle on the last business day of each month.
Crypto futures trading is a type of trading where you agree to buy or sell a cryptocurrency, like Bitcoin, at a set price on a future date. Instead of owning the actual crypto, you're speculating on its price going up or down.
This is the first product developed through Cboe’s collaboration with FTSE Russell, the index division of the London Stock Exchange Group. It is expected to complement the exchange’s existing suite of Bitcoin derivatives, including the recently launched Bitcoin US ETF Index Options (CBTX) and MBTX. Cboe’s global head of derivatives, Catherine Clay, pointed out that there is a growing market demand for flexible, capital-efficient exposure to crypto. She also believes that the launch comes at a pivotal time for the industry.
Cboe is a longstanding institution in financial markets, and played a foundational role in Bitcoin’s integration into traditional finance, dating back to its first Bitcoin futures launch in December of 2017. The exchange also took recent steps to modernize its approach by including a February announcement to implement weekday 24-hour trading to align even more with the crypto market's nonstop activity.
While Bitcoin ETFs gained a lot of traction, futures are still a significant part of the ecosystem. In March, open interest in Bitcoin futures took a major hit, with $10 billion wiped out because of excessive leverage. Despite this volatility, innovation in the futures market continues to grow.
Coinbase announcement regarding 24/7 trading (Source: Coinbase)
Coinbase, for instance, revealed plans to offer round-the-clock trading of Bitcoin and Ethereum futures to US customers. Additionally, Singapore Exchange (SGX) is preparing to roll out Bitcoin perpetual futures in the latter half of 2025.
