Arthur Hayes Says Trump Tariffs Could Cause Major Bitcoin Rally

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that President Donald Trump’s new tariffs could destabilize global markets but ultimately boost Bitcoin.

Bitcoin

He predicted that monetary easing in response to economic issues may weaken the dollar and drive investors toward crypto. Meanwhile, Chinese firm Cango is betting big on Bitcoin by selling its traditional business to Bitmain-linked entities and shifting fully into mining. On the flip side, Singapore’s Genius Group is facing legal hurdles in the US that prevent it from expanding its Bitcoin holdings.

Trump’s Tariffs Will Push Investors Toward Bitcoin

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that US President Donald Trump’s newly announced tariffs could disrupt the global economy but ultimately prove bullish for Bitcoin. In an April 3 post on X, Hayes stated that while global imbalances may be shaken by the move, the resulting monetary responses—particularly money printing—will serve as a tailwind for BTC. “Global imbalances will be corrected, and the pain papered over with printed money, which is good for BTC,” he said, adding, “Some of y’all are running scurred, but I LOVE TARIFFS.”

The Trump administration revealed that it will implement a 10% tariff on all countries starting April 5, with even steeper rates for specific nations. In fact, China is facing 34%, the European Union 20%, and Japan 24%. 

Hayes pointed to several reasons why this could trigger a Bitcoin rally. Chief among them is the weakening of the US Dollar Index (DXY), as global investors begin offloading US stocks and repatriating funds. This shift in capital, he argued, will be very favorable for Bitcoin.

Supporting his case, Hayes pointed out that April 3 saw the largest single-day point drop in history for the Nasdaq 100, with a loss of 1,060 points. According to The Kobeissi Letter, the index came within just 1.5% of activating the first market circuit breaker since the March 2020 crash. Hayes interpreted this market turmoil as a medium-term positive for both Bitcoin and gold.

He also mentioned the potential impact of the tariffs on the Chinese yuan (CNY), and suggested that Beijing may allow the currency to weaken beyond 8.00 in response to the punitive trade measures. According to Hayes, a weaker yuan could encourage Chinese investors to look for shelter in risk-on assets like Bitcoin to preserve their wealth.

Adding another layer to his analysis, Hayes pointed to a drop in the two-year Treasury yield after the tariff news, and suggested that markets are now pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts and possibly a return to quantitative easing. Lower interest rates and increased liquidity typically make riskier assets like cryptocurrencies more appealing to investors.

Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies at Bitwise Invest, shared very similar thoughts earlier this year. On Feb. 3, Park predicted that in a scenario of a weakening dollar and declining US interest rates, risk assets will surge significantly. Overall, both Hayes and Park suggest that while tariffs may start some economic instability, they could also be the spark that drives Bitcoin into its next major rally.

Cango Goes All-In on Bitcoin Mining

Cango, a publicly traded Chinese conglomerate, also believes in Bitcoin’s potential. The company even reportedly decided to pivot entirely toward Bitcoin mining by offloading its traditional China-based operations. 

According to a report by The Miner Mag, the company agreed to sell its legacy auto financing business for $352 million to Ursalpha Digital Limited. This is an entity linked to Bitmain, which is one of the world’s leading Bitcoin mining hardware manufacturers.

Mining

As part of the deal, Bitmain will transfer 32 exahashes per second (EH/s) of computing power to Cango, effectively bringing a portion of its mining infrastructure into the public market through Cango’s listing. Exahashes measure the total computing contribution a miner provides to secure the Bitcoin network. Ursalpha Digital shares the same corporate address and founding director as Antalpha, yet another Bitmain-controlled entity. This means that there are some very strong ties between the parties involved.

This move is taking place as Bitmain navigates increased regulatory scrutiny in the United States, particularly after its AI subsidiary Sopghgo was blacklisted by the US government, according to Bloomberg. Bitmain also still has ties with American Bitcoin, a mining venture linked to President Donald Trump’s family

American Bitcoin was formed through a partnership with Hut 8, and was created in March. Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump are among its founders. Hut 8, a Canadian infrastructure provider, recently transferred its mining equipment to American Bitcoin and is expected to focus on data centers while American Bitcoin pursues mining operations and a potential IPO.

Unfortunately, market conditions for Bitcoin miners are not the best. A JPMorgan note revealed that mining stocks suffered in 2025 because of declining crypto prices and profitability pressures after Bitcoin’s most recent halving event in April of last year. This reduced mining rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. 

Hut8 stock

Hut8 stock price YTD (Source: Google)

The halving is designed to control Bitcoin’s supply but often forces miners to reevaluate their strategies and cost structures. 

US Court Blocks Genius Group’s Bitcoin Expansion

On the other hand, some companies want to take advantage of Bitcoin’s long-term price potential, but are unable to do so. Singapore-based artificial intelligence company Genius Group is temporarily blocked from expanding its Bitcoin treasury after a US court order that bans it from selling shares, raising capital, or using investor funds to buy more Bitcoin.

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(Source: X)

The order was issued by a New York District Court on March 13, and it is part of a broader legal dispute linked to the company's recent merger with Fatbrain AI. Although the two firms completed their merger in March of 2024, Genius Group later moved to terminate the deal in October because of alleged fraud by Fatbrain AI executives.

In February, Fatbrain AI executives Michael Moe and Peter Ritz requested a temporary restraining order and a permanent injunction, claiming that Genius Group’s financial actions could harm investors while arbitration was ongoing. As a result, the court-imposed restrictions forced Genius Group to shut down some of its business divisions, halt marketing operations, and sell 10 of its 440 Bitcoins to sustain its operations. The company warned that it may need to sell even more Bitcoin in the coming months if the restrictions stay in place.

Announcement

(Source: Genius Group)

The dispute escalated even more when Fatbrain AI shareholders filed two lawsuits in April of 2024 against both Fatbrain AI executives and Genius Group. The lawsuit allege violations of federal securities laws. However, Genius Group was voluntarily dismissed from the lawsuits on Feb. 14. The company now claims that adhering to the US court order is causing it to violate Singaporean law, specifically by preventing it from issuing shares to employees under preexisting agreements.

Genius Group CEO Roger James Hamilton is very frustrated at the court’s ability to override corporate decision-making. He believes that decisions like raising capital or buying Bitcoin should rest with the shareholders or the company’s board, not a foreign court. 

Genius Group first began building a Bitcoin treasury in November of 2024 by purchasing 110 BTC for $10 million. It later announced a broader strategy to allocate more than 90% of its reserves into Bitcoin.