Wintermute’s recent launch of the OutcomeMarket US presidential election prediction market and Donald Trump’s introduction of a new cryptocurrency token through his World Liberty Financial project have drawn significant attention from both the crypto and political communities. Wintermute's permissionless, cross-chain market backed by Chaos Labs’ AI-driven oracle introduces new tokens tied to the 2024 election, while Trump's WLFI token has sparked debate among crypto users ahead of the election.
Wintermute Launches OutcomeMarket: US Presidential Election Prediction Market Tokens Set to Launch with Chaos Labs' Edge Proofs Oracle
Algorithmic cryptocurrency trader and liquidity provider Wintermute has announced the launch of the OutcomeMarket US presidential election prediction market, which will be powered by Chaos Labs’ Edge Proofs Oracle. This innovative market is expected to introduce two key tokens—HARRIS and TRUMP—which will become available on multiple blockchains, including Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum. The tokens are slated to go live in the fourth week of September, allowing users to engage with a new decentralized prediction market without the need for bridging assets across chains.
Wintermute’s prediction market will leverage a permissionless smart contract, which ensures accessibility for users across different chains. By eliminating the need to bridge assets, participants on Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum will have a direct entry point into the market, providing a seamless experience. This level of interoperability across popular blockchains marks a key development in simplifying user participation in prediction markets.
The market will support two tradable tokens: HARRIS and TRUMP, each representing the likelihood of election outcomes for the 2024 US presidential race. These tokens will be available for trading on both centralized and decentralized exchanges, making them versatile assets within the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. Furthermore, the tokens can be integrated into DeFi applications, giving users the flexibility to engage with them beyond traditional trading.
Notably, Bebop, WOO, and Backpack are set to be the first cryptocurrency exchanges to list the HARRIS and TRUMP tokens. This early adoption by major exchanges highlights growing institutional interest in blockchain-based prediction markets. Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy explained the significance of this launch, noting the widespread interest from both centralized and decentralized trading venues:
“There has been significant interest from both centralized and decentralized trading venues to list such prediction market contracts, but no one had developed them in a permissionless manner and without imposing minting or transaction fees.”
Chaos Labs' Oracle: AI-Powered Precision
One of the standout features of the OutcomeMarket prediction market is the integration of Chaos Labs’ Edge Proofs Oracle. This cutting-edge oracle leverages advanced artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs), combining them with risk models to deliver precise, tamper-proof data feeds for the market. Omer Goldberg, CEO of Chaos Labs, emphasized the oracle's unique ability to provide real-time risk assessments within the protocol:
“Our oracle is a unique integration of advanced AI and LLMs with risk models that delivers highly precise, tamper-proof data feeds while embedding real-time risk assessment directly into the protocol.”
This partnership between Wintermute and Chaos Labs strengthens the market’s credibility, ensuring users have access to reliable and accurate data feeds for making informed decisions. Wintermute’s role as an investor in Chaos Labs further cements the collaboration and highlights the growing importance of robust data infrastructure in prediction markets.
While the launch of OutcomeMarket presents an exciting opportunity for global participants, prediction markets have faced significant regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the United States. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has expressed concerns about the susceptibility of prediction markets to manipulation and recently proposed a rule in August to ban event contracts, which include prediction market tokens. This has raised questions about the long-term viability of these markets in the US.
In one high-profile case, the CFTC attempted to block Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market, from allowing bets on the outcome of the US presidential election. Although Kalshi’s attempt to proceed was initially overturned in court, a subsequent stay prevented it from moving forward with election-related betting.
Polymarket, another major player in the prediction market space, has proactively restricted access for US users to avoid regulatory issues. In reference to OutcomeMarket, Wintermute’s Gaevoy acknowledged these challenges, stating:
“It will be up to the trading venues that will list the market on how they manage the US exposure, but I’m pretty sure most of them, if not all of them, don’t allow US customers already.”
Wintermute’s entry into the prediction market arena, combined with Chaos Labs’ AI-driven oracle technology, could signal a new era for blockchain-based prediction markets. With the integration of permissionless smart contracts, cross-chain compatibility, and AI-enhanced data feeds, OutcomeMarket is poised to offer a more flexible, accessible, and secure platform for global users.
However, the looming regulatory scrutiny from the CFTC and the uncertain legal environment in the US may temper the market’s adoption among American participants. Despite these challenges, the global reach of decentralized platforms and the increasing interest from exchanges indicate that prediction markets could still flourish outside of the United States, offering users a novel way to engage with high-stakes events like the US presidential election.
Donald Trump’s WLFI Token Sparks Controversy Amid 2024 Election Campaign
Less than 24 hours after Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump announced the launch of a new cryptocurrency token through his World Liberty Financial (WLFI) project, the move has already stirred controversy across the crypto community. Following the announcement, social media platforms lit up with mixed reactions, ranging from cautious optimism to outright criticism.
In August, Trump and his sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, began teasing a decentralized finance (DeFi) initiative on X, leaving many intrigued yet puzzled due to the lack of details. Trump’s Sept. 12 announcement that he would host an X Spaces event to discuss World Liberty Financial set the stage for a major reveal, drawing attention from both crypto enthusiasts and political pundits.
Scheduled for Sept. 18, the X Spaces discussion was intended to clarify Trump’s vision for the WLFI token and its role within the broader financial landscape. However, some of Trump’s supporters in the pro-crypto community began expressing skepticism about the project’s direction even before the event took place.
While some saw Trump’s entrance into the DeFi space as a potentially groundbreaking move, others viewed it as a misstep. Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter was one of the early critics, referring to the project as a “huge mistake.” Carter suggested that Trump’s campaign was attempting to capitalize on his recent embrace of cryptocurrency in a “naive” manner, which could alienate some of his base.
Adding to the skepticism, some pro-crypto Trump supporters voiced concerns about the project’s timing and execution. In particular, the pre-mined nature of the WLFI token drew backlash from certain quarters of the crypto community. One vocal critic, Mitchell Askew, shared his frustrations on X:
“Trump launching a shtcoin may have been the final straw to lose my vote,” Askew said. “It’s one thing for him to be ‘pro Crypto’ instead of just ‘pro Bitcoin’ – not everyone is a maxi, I get it. But it’s another thing to drop a 70% pre-mined token on his followers 7 weeks before the election.”
Askew’s criticism echoed the sentiments of others who felt that the WLFI token was more of a political gimmick than a serious DeFi initiative. The decision to release the token so close to the 2024 election also raised concerns that Trump’s campaign was attempting to capitalize on the hype surrounding cryptocurrencies without fully considering the potential ramifications.
When the much-anticipated X Spaces event took place, many were left underwhelmed. While Trump and his team unveiled plans to launch the WLFI token, the event revealed few details about the project’s logistics or its purpose. The campaign made clear that they did not consider the WLFI token to be a security under the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) purview, but this statement did little to quell concerns.
The absence of clear information led many to speculate that the project was more focused on generating headlines than building a robust DeFi platform. Some participants on X voiced their disappointment, suggesting that Trump’s involvement with WLFI might alienate portions of his base, particularly those who were looking for more concrete plans from the candidate’s campaign.
Professor Tonya Evans from Penn State Dickinson Law, who authored Digital Money Demystified, offered a nuanced take on the situation, highlighting the potential pitfalls of focusing on a single-issue voter base:
“Before the voter who is not a staunchly single-issue Bitcoin or, more broadly, crypto voter, there are so many other issues […] I can’t say that there’s proof of pivot,” Evans said. “Those who are not single-issue voters have to take a second look at the reality. [Trump] did not speak clearly or well [about] the logistics of the plan. This was built up as the moment that we get a plan and not ‘concepts of a plan.’”
Evans’ remarks pointed to a broader issue: while Trump’s move into the DeFi space might appeal to a niche audience, it could alienate more traditional voters. For single-issue crypto voters, the WLFI token may be exciting, but for many, the lack of clarity could prove to be a deterrent.
The Political and Regulatory Backdrop
Trump’s announcement came at a particularly sensitive time for both his campaign and the broader political landscape. Less than a week before the WLFI token launch, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, was widely seen as having won a televised debate against Trump. Polls indicated that Harris and Trump were in a tight race, with battleground states likely to determine the outcome of the election.
In the broader context, Trump’s WLFI token could be seen as a way to differentiate his campaign from Harris’. While Harris has not made cryptocurrency a cornerstone of her platform, she has indicated her willingness to support policies that would promote industry growth. One of her campaign advisers said in August that the Democratic candidate would back policies to foster innovation within the crypto sector. Additionally, a political action committee supporting Harris, Future Forward, accepts cryptocurrency contributions.
Despite Trump’s strong backing from many Republican lawmakers, some prominent figures from his party, including former Vice President Dick Cheney, have declared their intention to vote for Harris. This growing divide within the Republican Party could add pressure on Trump to solidify his support base—something the WLFI token launch may or may not help with.
As Trump’s WLFI token enters the market just weeks before the election, it remains to be seen how much of an impact it will have on his campaign. On one hand, the move could galvanize his crypto-supporting followers who view the token as a symbol of his forward-thinking policies. On the other hand, the controversy surrounding the token’s pre-mined structure and the timing of the release could turn away more traditional voters.
Professor Evans suggested that the token launch may not cost Trump significant support, particularly among single-issue crypto voters, but noted that the broader electorate may be less enthusiastic. While the WLFI token may create buzz in the short term, its long-term success—and impact on the election—remains uncertain.
