US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen record-breaking inflows of more than $17 billion, driven mainly by BlackRock's IBIT. Meanwhile, Bitcoin whales have reduced selling pressure, contributing to Bitcoin's recent price stability above $67,000. However, some analysts like Peter Brandt predict a more bearish trend for the crypto king. Regardless of whether the price of BTC will go up or down, the German government already ended up missing out on huge profits by selling its Bitcoin holdings too soon.
Bitcoin ETFs Attract Massive Investments
US Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have cumulatively netted over $17 billion in inflows, setting a new record. According to data from Farside Investors, these inflows were driven mostly by BlackRock's IBIT, which alone accumulated $18.968 billion. Fidelity’s FBTC also contributed a lot, with net inflows of $9.962 billion. On the other hand, Grayscale’s GBTC experienced a huge net outflow of $18.694 billion.
Bitcoin ETF Flow (Source: Farside Investors)
On July 17, the 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total daily net inflow of $53.35 million, making it the ninth consecutive day of positive inflows. However, this figure was still much lower than the $422 million net inflows seen on July 16.
Despite this, BlackRock's IBIT continued to lead, posting the largest net inflows of the day at $110.37 million and achieving a trading volume of $1.21 billion. Fidelity’s FBTC was the only other fund to report net inflows on July 17, adding $2.83 million.
In contrast, Grayscale’s GBTC and Bitwise’s BITB faced net outflows of $53.86 million and $6 million, respectively. Seven other funds, including ARK Invest and 21Shares’ ARKB, reported zero flows for the day. The total trade volume for US spot Bitcoin funds on July 17 was $1.79 billion, which is a big drop from March’s peak when daily volumes exceeded $8 billion.
This record-setting inflow certainly proves the increasing acceptance and integration of Bitcoin into mainstream investment portfolios. BlackRock's Bitcoin holdings have surged above $20 billion in value, driven by the firm’s recent purchase of 4,004 additional Bitcoin and a slight increase in Bitcoin’s price since the market closed on Monday.
The fund initially surpassed $20 billion in assets under management in late May, coinciding with Bitcoin’s climb toward $70,000, earning it the distinction of being the most prominent Bitcoin ETF globally.
Bitcoin Whales Reduce Selling Pressure
Meanwhile, Bitcoin whales are also easing off their selling pressure as Bitcoin gained some strength over the past week, and was able to hold above $67,000. According to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, large BTC sellers are exhausted, and valuation metrics suggest positive momentum.
Moreno pointed out that realized profits are minimal compared to March or May when Bitcoin exceeded $71,000 in both months. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $73,679 on Mar. 13, and is currently trading at $67,913, up 8.32% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Traders are closely monitoring whether Bitcoin can hold above the critical support level of $65,000 and speculating on its potential to reach $69,000. Crypto trader Milkybull Crypto claimed that Bitcoin's next point to complete the weekly megaphone price pattern is $69,000, with the megaphone price pattern target within $84,000-$88,000. A move to $69,000 would erase $261.9 million in short positions, according to CoinGlass data.
Despite not reaching the $67,000 level since June 12, traders are noticing several bullish indicators suggesting that the uptrend may actually continue. Quinten Francious, host of the YouTube channel Young and Investing, revealed that weekly Bollinger Bands are at their lowest levels ever recorded, which measures the strong momentum and volatility in a certain range.
Philip Swift added that Bitcoin’s price has returned to the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, which is an important indicator for traders as it represents the aggregate cost basis of more speculative Bitcoin holders, or wallets storing Bitcoin for 155 days or less.
This comes after a turbulent month for Bitcoin where its price dropped sharply below the $60,000 mark to $53,905 on July 5, before making a recovery.
Crypto trading account On-chain College pointed out that Bitcoin breaking above a key level indicates strong momentum and highlighted a nice area of support at $64,000. This is likely attributed to a period of Bitcoin moving from weak hands to stronger hands. On-chain College also mentioned that Trump and others speaking at BTC Nashville could also give the Bitcoin price a nice boost.
Analyst Predicts Bearish Trend for Bitcoin
Not everyone is very optimistic about what is next for BTC. Despite the relatively neutral sentiment in the crypto market, some renowned analysts believe Bitcoin is far from an uptrend and currently exhibits a more bearish dynamic. It could even potentially dive down in the foreseeable future.
Seasoned trader Peter Brandt recently shared his opinions on Bitcoin's price, and pointed out that the current consolidation phase does not resemble a bullish flag pattern. Instead, Brandt saw a downward channel indicating a potential bearish trend.
Bitcoin / US Dollar weekly chart (Source: Peter Brandt)
Brandt's analysis is based on classical charting methods developed by Schabacker, Edwards, and Magee. According to Brandt, the current Bitcoin pattern is similar to a down channel, which often indicates further potential downside.
Bitcoin has been setting lower highs and lower lows, which is consistent with a down channel. This pattern gradually lowers BTC’s price, and if the downward trend continues, increased selling pressure on Bitcoin may push prices far below current levels.
Overall, it is still unclear if the bullish rally will continue in the upcoming week. A fresh inflow of funds is needed to see Bitcoin reach $70,000 or above.
German BTC Sales Miss Serious Profits
The German government recently missed out on an extra $124 million in Bitcoin gains by cashing in its holdings too soon. On July 13, Germany’s Saxony state completed the sale of the 50,000 BTC stash it seized from the movie piracy website movie2k, generating around $2.87 billion. This sale secured a profit of more than $740 million compared to their acquisition cost of $2.13 billion in January.
However, right after their sale, Bitcoin prices skyrocketed by up to 16.55%, driven higher by the assassination attempt on former United States President Donald Trump.
The Saxony government's best chance of maximizing returns was in March when BTC hit a record high of around $74,000. A theoretical sale of 50,000 BTC in March could have secured $1.5 billion in profits for the state.
BTC’s 12% decline during the German government’s sales also led to missed profits. The Dresden Public Prosecutor's Office ordered the "emergency sales" of Bitcoin in June due to fears that the cryptocurrency's value might drop by more than 10%. They clarified that the sale of valuable items before the conclusion of ongoing criminal proceedings is legally required whenever there is a risk of big loss.
The office also clarified that enforcement agencies are not allowed to speculate on the value of seized items by waiting for prices to increase before selling. Their intention behind the emergency sales of 50,000 BTC was to secure funds for criminal proceedings against movie2k. Despite the urgency, the office ensured that a fair market price was achieved.
This statement coincides with a rising demand for Bitcoin among ETF and other fund investors during the German government's BTC sales. James Butterfill, a researcher at asset management firm CoinShares, shared that Bitcoin saw the fifth largest weekly inflows on record with $1.35 billion, while short-Bitcoin saw the largest weekly outflows since April at $8.6 million. He believes that price weakness because of the German government’s Bitcoin sales and a turnaround in sentiment due to lower-than-expected CPI in the US prompted investors to add to positions.
Last year, the US government sold a portion of its Bitcoin stash that was seized from Silk Road, while nations like El Salvador are officially accumulating BTC as a strategic reserve asset. Recently, there has been more talk of the US using Bitcoin for its own strategic reserve as soon as 2028.
