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A recent CoinGecko survey revealed some mixed feelings about the crypto market, with only 49.3% of the people who took part in the survey feeling bullish. Bitcoin's recent deep correction and short-term holders' unrealized losses could be some of the factors that fueled the negative sentiment. However, there are still a few positive developments like the fact that whales have been accumulating Bitcoin, and new leveraged Bitcoin ETFs have launched. Additionally, the CFTC Chief recently reaffirmed Bitcoin and Ether as commodities.
Survey Reveals Mixed Feelings About Crypto Market
A recent CoinGecko survey that involved more than 2,500 participants revealed that only about half of crypto investors and enthusiasts currently hold a bullish outlook on the crypto market. The survey was conducted from June 25 to July 8, and the survey's results were published on July 10.
The survey included responses from 2,558 people, 94% of whom are either holders of crypto or workers in the crypto sector. It showed that 49.3% of respondents felt either "bullish" or "somewhat bullish" about the crypto market. About a quarter of the participants were split between "bearish" and "somewhat bearish," while another quarter stayed neutral, indicating that they have no strong feelings about whether the market would move up or down.
How participants are feeling about the crypto market (Source: CoinGecko)
CoinGecko research analyst Lim Yu Qian suggested that the neutral sentiment might reflect participants' uncertainty about market conditions or a wait-and-see approach for further developments before forming a market view.
The survey categorized participants into four groups: investors, traders, builders, and spectators. Among these, spectators—those with no direct involvement in crypto—were the most bearish, with two in five expressing pessimism about the crypto market. This group also had the highest proportion of neutral sentiment, almost 30%.
Yu Qian pointed out that spectators' views might represent people who have taken profits and temporarily exited the market. On the other hand, long-term crypto investors were the most bullish, followed closely by people working in the crypto space.
This survey was conducted in the middle of a period of market fluctuation for Bitcoin (BTC). Since its Apr. 20 halving, Bitcoin has seen a price drop of close to 9.5%. Historically, Bitcoin halvings have led to price rallies in the months after the event. However, the market has recently been unsettled by potential sell pressure from billions worth of BTC being repaid to creditors of the defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox, as well as a recent sell-off of Bitcoin by the German government.
Short-Term Holders Hit Hard by Bitcoin Slump
The crypto market sentiment might be a bit more negative than most people anticipated because Bitcoin recently experienced its "deepest correction" in 24 months, which had a huge impact on short-term holders (STHs) with unrealized losses, according to Glassnode. Bitcoin's price dropped by more than 16.5% from a high of $63,801 on July 1 to a swing low of $63,499 on July 5, making it the "deepest correction since late 2022."
Glassnode's The Week On-chain report pointed out that between May and July, the market underwent a cycle correction exceeding 26% from the all-time high (ATH). Despite this downturn, the correction is notably shallower compared to past cycles, which indicates a strong market structure and reduced volatility as Bitcoin matures as an asset class. The 2023-2024 market has behaved very similarly to the last two cycles, which provides a valuable framework for analysts to understand cycle structure and duration.
With the recent sell-off, 83% of the supply controlled by STHs, addresses holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days, has fallen into unrealized losses. Around 2.9 million BTC (worth close to $166.75 billion at current rates) of the 3.2 million BTC ($184 billion) held by STHs fell below their cost basis when Bitcoin's price dropped to $53,000, placing serious pressure on Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.
As long as Bitcoin's price remains below $58,000, the long-term outlook will remain bearish, as this level is a tough resistance zone. At press time, BTC’s price stood at $57,628.61 after its price took a more than 2% tumble over the past day of trading.
The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $58,180 is the first resistance line for bulls, with another barrier potentially emerging at the $63,880 level, where the 50-day and 100-day EMAs converge. Aggressive selling from this congestion zone could limit any attempts to push the price higher as investors book profits or break even. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades believes that reclaiming the 200-day EMA and holding above $59,000 would be a "good start" for Bitcoin bulls.
REX Shares & Tuttle Capital Launch New ETFs
For the more spirited traders, investment managers REX Shares and Tuttle Capital Management launched two new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on July 10 that allow high-conviction Bitcoin traders to take long or short positions with 200% exposure to Bitcoin's price volatility. The two funds, the T-REX 2X Long Bitcoin Daily Target ETF (CBOE: BTCL) and the T-REX 2X Inverse Bitcoin Daily Target ETF (CBOE: BTCZ), use financial derivatives to deliver 2x leveraged or inverse exposure to spot BTC rather than holding Bitcoin directly.
Bitcoin ETFs have seen some impressive inflows recently, with almost $650 million flowing into BTC ETFs since July 5.
The new ETFs will boost REX Shares’ existing suite of "T-REX" products, which includes funds offering leveraged exposure to mega-cap technology stocks like Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA). In June, REX Shares surpassed $5 billion in assets under management, with its T-REX funds pulling in over $1 billion since last year.
However, leveraged ETFs tend to underperform relative to the underlying spot asset and other leveraged exposure strategies. This is mostly due to the constant leverage trap, where funds must buy low and sell high to maintain fixed leverage.
Leveraged ETFs underperform in the long run (Source: GSR)
They also charge relatively high management fees, which just ends up adding further drag on performance. REX Shares' new ETFs each charge management fees of 0.95%, way higher than spot BTC ETFs like the Franklin Templeton Digital Holdings Trust (EZBC), VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL), and iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which will charge fees averaging around 0.2% once promotional discounts expire.
Whales Accumulate Bitcoin
It seems like BTC trading below $60,000 has prompted whales to accumulate the cryptocurrency, in the hopes of future price increases. CryptoQuant analysts reported that Bitcoin whales and long-term holders have been increasing their balances at a 6.3% monthly rate.
This is the fastest accumulation spree since April of 2023, when Bitcoin traded around $30,000. The report from CryptoQuant was released on Wednesday, and revealed that whale activity is supporting BTC's price amid recent sell pressure.
CFTC Chief Reaffirmed Bitcoin and Ether as Commodities
Another factor that could give a bit of a boost to the current sentiment in the crypto market is the fact that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chief recently reiterated that Bitcoin and Ethereum are commodities and that his agency should oversee them. On July 9, Chair Rostin Behnam referenced a recent Illinois court ruling that reaffirms Bitcoin and Ether as commodities. The ruling was part of a $120 million Ponzi case, and also classified Olympus (OHM) and KlimaDAO (KLIMA) as commodities.
Behnam also referred to a 2022 Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) report that sheds light on a regulatory gap in the spot market for digital assets not considered securities, advocating for increased CFTC oversight of digital commodities. He argued that inaction from other regulators will not diminish public interest in digital assets but would only increase financial market and investor risks. Behnam believes it is very urgent for federal legislation to create a regulatory framework protecting American investors and the financial system from future risks.
The CFTC Chair pointed out five key legislative priorities for better regulating digital commodities: tailoring rules to the unique risks of cryptocurrencies, establishing a permanent fee-for-service funding model, requiring comprehensive disclosure from registrants, enhancing KYC and AML capabilities, and developing a balanced framework to classify tokens as commodities or securities.
