Former U.S. President Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election surged on Polymarket after he survived a shooting at a Pennsylvania rally. The incident also led to the creation of new Trump-themed meme coins and led to a 30% rise in the largest meme coin, MAGA. However, these coins are experiencing a lot of volatility. The dollar also strengthened in the wake of the shooting.
Trump's Popularity Soars After Shooting
Former U.S. president Donald Trump's probability of retaking the White House jumped to an all-time high on Polymarket after he was injured from a shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday. A Secret Service spokesman said the Republican presidential candidate was "safe" after the shooting. According to The New York Times, a suspected gunman was killed, and a spectator passed away as well.
Photos and video footage of Trump with blood on his face pumping his fist in the air are circulating on social media, after two weeks of conversations that were focused on the frailty and gaffes of his opponent, President Joe Biden. Binden’s odds of becoming president took a dive after the shooting, and Polymarket traders believe he has only an 18% chance of being reelected.
"Yes" shares in Polymarket's contract on whether Trump will win the presidency climbed ten cents after the incident, to 70 cents, meaning the market saw a 70% chance that he will win the November presidential election. At press time, this number stood at 71%.
Presidential election winner odds (Source: Polymarket)
Each share pays out $1 if the prediction comes true, and zero if not. Bets are programmed into a smart contract on the Polygon blockchain and settled in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency that trades 1:1 for dollars.
According to writer Noah Kumin, the shooting also inspired the creation of a number of new meme coins, many of them in poor taste, on the Solana token creation site Pump.fun. "Resurrection of Trump" (ROT) and "Hero Trump" (HERO) were just two of the many that reared their heads.
Trump has been very vocal about his wholehearted support for crypto on the campaign trail. He is even set to speak at a Bitcoin conference in Nashville this month.
Polymarket was founded four years ago by Shayne Coplan, and has seen some very impressive trading volumes in 2024, mostly because of the enthusiasm for political betting ahead of the U.S. election. The U.S. presidential winner contract already has a total of $252 million in bets placed, a record for the company and for all crypto-based prediction markets.
PredictIt, a more traditional betting site where wagers are settled in fiat, showed a very similar trend. Trump shares ended up climbing from 59 cents prioir to the shooting to 66 cents, before leveling off at 65 cents.
Many people consider prediction markets a more reliable gauge of sentiment and prefer it as a method of forecasting rather than polls or pundits because the people making predictions are putting money on the line. In other words, people believe they are much more reliable because people have some skin in the game by making bets, which means that they are far more likely to do thorough research and express their honest opinions.
MAGA Has a Big Reaction to the Shooting
In addition to Trump’s reelection odds, political meme coins also surged after the shooting. The price of the largest Donald Trump meme coin, MAGA (TRUMP), surged by more than 30% after the assassination attempt on the former United States President while he was speaking on stage at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.
The Ethereum-based MAGA meme coin spiked very quickly from a price of $6.31 to $10.36 immediately after the assassination attempt, seeing its total market capitalization jump from $293 million to $469 million in less than 45 minutes, according to DexScreener data.
However, MAGA experienced a big drop over the past 24 hours. At press time, MAGA is trading hands at $8.24 after its price fell by more than 13% throughout the past day, according to CoinMarketCap. Zooming out to the longer-term timeframes shows that the meme coin is still in the green by over 41% over the past week.
MAGA 7d chart (Source: CoinMarketCap)
MAGA’s performance is closely tied to news surrounding Trump. After the assassination attempt, the heightened volatility that was seen could be attributed to several factors, including increased uncertainty and a shift in market sentiments.
On social media, reactions to the event have been very different but still very intense. Supporters of Trump are outraged and many theories have been making the rounds on platforms like X, suggesting that the attempt was politically motivated. Some high-profile figures like Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene believe that the Biden administration and the FBI were involved, but this theory has been widely debunked by fact-checkers.
Other users are just relieved that Trump actually survived the attempt, and are sharing their well-wishes and hopes for his continued safety. The assassination attempt itself is also shrouded in some controversy. There are many online discussions about the security measures in place and the potential implications for Trump’s political future.
Other Trump Memes See Sharp Gains and Losses
The price of several other Trump-themed meme coins also rallied after the shooting. Solana-based meme coin Tremp (TREMP) jumped more than 63% in the hour after the news, while another meme coin called MAGA Hat (MAGA) briefly spiked 21% in the same timeframe.
TREMP 1d chart (Source: CoinMarketCap)
As was the case with MAGA, TREMP’s price also took a hit in the past 24 hours. TREMP saw its price decline by about 6% since yesterday to trade hands at $0.4435 at press time.
MAGA Hat suffered a very similar fate to the rest of the Trump meme coins as its price plummeted by almost 30% over the past day to trade at $0.0008583. The token is, however, still up by 31% on its weekly time frame.
Dollar Also Picks up Steam
Interestingly, Reuters reported that the dollar also rose broadly on Monday in the wake of the attempted assassination of the former U.S. President. The euro fell 0.2% against the dollar to $1.0888, while sterling dipped 0.13% to $1.2973.
Vishnu Varathan, chief economist for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Bank, stated that a bias for a supported, possibly even stronger, USD is likely to play out if the U.S. heads into Trump 2.0. This is attributed more to other major currencies being undermined by antagonistic U.S. trade and geopolitical posturing rather than the undisputed allure of USD.
Long-dated U.S. bond yields ticked higher on expectations that a Trump win would lead to policies driving up government debt and stoking inflation. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last up roughly three basis points at 4.2158%.
Headlines from China also grabbed investors' attention, as data showed the world's second largest economy grew way slower than expected in the second quarter, weighed down by a protracted property downturn and job insecurity squeezing domestic demand.
