Bitcoin is still trying to recover, but two charts now point to rising risk around that move. One shows a possible repeat of a headline driven rally that later failed, while the other suggests the market may first need a pullback before any stronger upside attempt.
Bitcoin Chart Revives War Time Pattern, but Similarity Alone Does Not Confirm a New Drop
The weekly Bitcoin chart shared by Ted Pillows compares two geopolitical periods and argues that BTC may be repeating the same structure. In both cases, the chart marks a war related shock, a price bottom on the same day, and then a rebound after a government signaled openness to Bitcoin for specific payments. Based on that sequence, the analyst argues that the current recovery could still end in another sharp decline.
BTCUSD Weekly Chart. Source: Ted Pillows on X
The comparison is visually clear, but it remains a pattern based analogy rather than confirmation of direction. In the 2022 section, the chart shows Bitcoin rebounding after the Russia Ukraine war began and then rising further after Russia said it could accept Bitcoin for oil exports. Later, the rally failed and price dropped hard. In the 2026 section, the chart shows a similar setup after the US Iran war started, followed by a rebound and then Iran’s reported plan to accept BTC for toll fees.
That parallel may explain why the analyst sees risk in the current move. However, the chart by itself does not prove that Bitcoin must repeat the same outcome. It only shows that the market reacted in a similar order around two major headlines. Therefore, the main takeaway is not that a new low is certain, but that the current rally may be vulnerable if it is being driven more by sentiment than by lasting strength.
In that sense, the chart supports a cautious reading. Bitcoin has bounced sharply from the marked low, and sentiment appears to be improving. Even so, the analyst’s point is that euphoria after headline driven recoveries can fade quickly. So while the comparison is notable, traders would still need more evidence than historical similarity alone to confirm that another major selloff is ahead.
Bitcoin Risks Pullback Toward 50 Day Average After Losing Channel Midline
Bitcoin’s daily chart shared by SuperBitcoinBro shows price slipping below the center line of a rising channel, a sign that short term momentum may be weakening. The setup now points to a possible pullback toward the upward sloping 50 day simple moving average, which the analyst also says lines up with an open CME gap.
BTCUSD Daily Chart. Source: SuperBitcoinBro on X
The chart shows Bitcoin recovering inside a rising channel after a sharp selloff earlier in the period. However, the latest move failed to hold above the channel midpoint, which often acts as a near term strength marker. When price loses that area, it can shift focus toward lower support inside the same structure rather than toward an immediate breakout higher.
That is why the lower half of the channel now matters more. The 50 day moving average is rising underneath price and appears close to the area where the market could retest support. In addition, the chart notes a CME gap in roughly the same region. When a technical support level and a gap align, traders often watch that zone more closely because it can attract price during a retracement.
At the same time, the broader channel is still intact. So this chart does not show a full breakdown. Instead, it suggests Bitcoin may pause or pull back before deciding whether the larger recovery can continue. If buyers step in around the moving average and lower channel support, the structure could still remain constructive.
Overall, the chart points to a near term test rather than a confirmed reversal. Bitcoin lost the center of the channel, and that raises the chance of a move lower toward support, with the 50 day average and CME gap now standing out as the key area to watch.
