While ADIC sees Bitcoin as a digital form of gold, IBIT has faced heavy outflows thanks to Bitcoin’s decline below key cost-basis levels. At the same time, analysts expect the end of the US government shutdown to pave the way for a surge of new crypto ETF approvals in 2026. Even though current ETFs are dealing with major outflows and pressure on prices, some analysts believe a new regulatory cycle could lead to renewed institutional participation and innovation in the sector.
ADIC Expands Bitcoin Position
The Abu Dhabi Investment Council (ADIC) escalated its exposure to Bitcoin by almost tripling its holdings in BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) during the third quarter, according to a Bloomberg report. The move is being interpreted as a strong signal that institutional appetite for digital assets is still strong across the United Arab Emirates, even during a turbulent period for Bitcoin’s price.
ADIC is an investment arm of Mubadala Investment Company, and reportedly increased its IBIT position from 2.4 million shares to nearly 8 million by the end of September. At the time, the position was valued at around $520 million based on IBIT’s closing price of $65 per share.
The buying spree happened just before a dramatic surge in Bitcoin that pushed the asset to an all-time high of above $126,000 on Oct. 5. Since then, Bitcoin has retreated sharply, and recently even fell below $90,000 before stabilizing close to $92,089. This downturn dragged IBIT’s price down as well, with the ETF closing Wednesday at $50.71, This is roughly 23% lower than its value at the end of Q3.
iShares Bitcoin Trus ETF price (Source: Google Finance)
Despite the pullback, many in the industry see ADIC’s aggressive accumulation as a clear sign of long-term conviction. The council told Bloomberg that it views Bitcoin as the digital equivalent of gold, which is a narrative that is increasingly embraced by institutional allocators looking for alternative stores of value. M2 treasury manager Zayed Aleem described the move as “fantastic to see,” and argued that it is a big step forward for the UAE to become a global digital-asset hub. Crypto commentator MartyParty also called ADIC’s position a strategic play on Bitcoin’s long-term store-of-value role.
However, IBIT’s recent performance raised eyebrows. ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that the fund is currently undergoing an “ugly stretch,” and pointed to a wave of outflows that has intensified alongside Bitcoin’s price correction. On Tuesday, IBIT logged its largest single-day outflow since launch at $523.2 million, which contributed to $3.3 billion in outflows from Bitcoin ETFs over the past month. Despite this, year-to-date flows are still strong at +$25 billion, and since its January 2024 launch, IBIT has accumulated over $63 million in net inflows.
For now, analysts are still split on Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Some warn of sustained volatility, while others argue that the current range represents a prime accumulation opportunity.
Analysts See ETF Boom Ahead
Meanwhile, the end of the US government shutdown and the return to a normal legislative calendar could open the door to a wave of new crypto ETF approvals in 2026, according to several market analysts. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan told CNBC that demand for crypto ETFs and exchange-traded products is “huge,” and he expects a major expansion of offerings once the SEC resumes a full regulatory pace.
Hougan predicted a surge of more than 100 new products, ranging from single-asset funds to index-based crypto ETPs. He explained that index-focused products will likely become especially popular as investors look for simple, passive ways to gain exposure to the digital asset market.
Matt Hougan’s interview with CNBC
However, the current ETF environment is still a bit challenging. Despite strong investor interest, crypto ETFs have been facing major outflows that are adding even more pressure to already-weakened cryptocurrency prices.
Canary Capital’s new XRP ETF, XRPC launched on Thursday with $58 million in first-day trading volume, but XRP still fell roughly 13% over the past week. Bitcoin ETFs are showing similar strain, with around $1.1 billion in outflows so far in November, putting them on track for their worst month since launch. Bitcoin’s drop below the average ETF cost basis of roughly $89,600 left many ETF investors holding unrealized losses.
Analysts noticed that Bitcoin ETF holders largely stayed resilient through October’s market crash, with only about $1 billion in outflows following the sell-off. Eric Balchunas said long-term Bitcoin whales, rather than ETF retail investors, were responsible for most selling pressure in October and early November.
Since then, the market downturn has deepened and ETF outflows have continued to accelerate. Despite this, some analysts are still optimistic that renewed regulatory activity in 2026 could unlock a fresh phase of ETF innovation and institutional participation.
