Analysts’ predictions of an “altcoin ETF summer” are gaining traction as the SEC accelerates its review of spot funds tied to Solana, Dogecoin, SUI, and other major altcoins. The SEC has asked issuers to update their S-1 filings by mid-June, with a 30-day comment window pointing to a likely decision by mid-to-late July.
This fast-tracked process is seen as a bullish signal, especially for Solana, which now holds a 90% probability of approval, according to Bloomberg’s James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas
Analysts predict 'Altcoin ETF Summer' as SEC mulls July approvals
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is quietly progressing toward approving a lineup of altcoin ETFs, with Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and SUI leading the charge.
Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart now estimate 90% probability for Solana and Litecoin ETFs making it through regulatory approval by October, followed closely by Dogecoin and XRP at 75-85% probability. Below is what you need to know about the filings, timelines, and market-shaking implications.
“Get ready for a potential altcoin ETF summer with Solana likely leading the way.”
— Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg ETF Analyst
SEC's Altcoin ETF Timetable: Decisions in July Loom
The SEC has a hectic July agenda before it:
July 2: Deadline for filing crypto index/basket ETFs (90% likelihood of approval).
July 17: First tranche of Solana ETF proposed amendments arrives, with a focus on cash-only creations and staking mechanisms.
October 2025: Final deadline for VanEck, 21Shares, and Grayscale's SOL ETF filings.
Interactive Calendar:
| Asset | Key SEC Deadline | Approval Odds |
| Solana (SOL) | Oct 2025 | 90% |
| Litecoin | Oct 2025 | 90% |
| XRP | Nov 2025 | 85% |
| Dogecoin | Dec 2025 | 80% |
| SUI | Mar 2026 | 60% |
Cash vs. In-Kind: SEC's New Gold Standard
The SEC has seemingly pushed issuers to cash-only creation models—a first tested in Bitcoin ETF approvals. This forces issuers like VanEck and 21Shares to deal with direct crypto transactions, reducing broker-dealer risk. Non-compliant ETFs (e.g., in-kind redemption proposals) are postponed or denied.
Who's Compliant?
- 21Shares SUI ETF: Employs CME CF Sui pricing data and cash-only settlements.
- VanEck Solana Trust: Copies Bitcoin ETF format, avoiding in-kind redemptions.
- Grayscale XRP ETF: Negotiating custody conditions with SEC still ongoing.
Surveillance-Sharing: The SEC's Quiet Mandate
SEC warns that lawyers will need more aggressive surveillance arrangements to detect market manipulation. For Solana ETFs, this would probably include collaborations with CME (already hosting SOL futures) and cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase.
“Surveillance-sharing is non-negotiable. The SEC wants to see real-time data from both futures and spot markets.”
— anonymous ETF attorney (Blockworks, 2023)
Market Impact: Altcoin ETF Race Winner?
Approvals could drive a $50B flood of liquidity into altcoins, renaming crypto dominance charts:
- Solana: VanEck expects SOL to hit $500 post-ETF.
- SUI: Nasdaq's 21Shares filing has already injected $300M into European ETPs.
- Dogecoin: Meme coin's 80% chance of approval rests upon Elon Musk's Twitter integration rumors.
The Bottom Line
SEC altcoin ETF spree represents tectonic shift in crypto regulation. While Solana blazes the trail and niche tokens like SUI soar, July approvals can ignite a summer rally—or expose the covert weaknesses of the SEC's "cash-only" model. Either way, Bitcoin dominance is on notice.
