Since the announcement of "liberating" duties, bitcoin has slightly sagged - as, indeed, have global stock indexes. At one point, the volatility of the S&P 500, considered the "barometer of the U.S. economy," even preceded the fluctuations of the first cryptocurrency.
It would seem that in the face of uncertainty and falling profitability, the capitulation of miners is only a matter of time.
However, reality paints a different picture: hash rates are storming records, network complexity is growing. All these are signs that market participants believe in the long-term potential of digital gold.
Hashrate vs bitcoin price
Despite the unconvincing price dynamics, the hashrate of the first cryptocurrency continues to "fly into space" - the metric updates historical highs, ignoring macroeconomic shake-ups and market turbulence;
There is usually a close correlation between these metrics: when the exchange rate falls or remains unchanged, the profitability of mining decreases and hashrate either stagnates or begins to decline.
Inextricably linked to the previous figure, mining complexity rose by almost 7% on April 5 at once.
This indicator is automatically adjusted to maintain a stable interval between blocks, and only increases in response to a noticeable increase in computing power in the network.
Apparently, miners are going all-in: they are actively increasing resources and investing in infrastructure, although the current price of bitcoin clearly does not promise a quick payback.
At first glance, such a strategy seems irrational. However, it may indicate a strong belief in the long-term potential of the first cryptocurrency and a solid reward for network participants.
Betting on the future
Recently, the Tape of Difficulty indicator gave a bitcoin buy signal, adding intrigue to the current market picture.
The intersection of the ascending 30-day moving average (blue line) with the 60-day moving average (purple line) indicates the completion of the miners' capitulation and the restoration of their "vitality". Visually, this is accompanied by a change in the chart background from red to white.
"Historically, such crossovers have often been turning points for the bitcoin price," explained lead Bitcoin Magazine Pro analyst Matt Crosby.
In his view, the current dynamic is particularly notable: the steady pullback of the faster moving average is not just a sign of recovery for miners, but "a major bet on the future."
Not everything is so clear-cut
Many are used to seeing hashrate growth as a bullish signal, but "the reality is much more complicated," noted Bitcoin Magazine Pro and Blockware Solutions analyst Mitchell Askew.
"In the short term, an increase in the index could be bearish as it leads to increased competition among miners and the sale of more bitcoins to cover energy costs. However, in the long term, the increase in hash rate reflects increased investment in infrastructure and improved network security," the expert explained.
CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten is also inspired by the rise in hash rate and complexity amid sluggish onchain activity and relatively low prices.
"For miners to remain profitable, to cover operating costs and capital expenditures, high bitcoin prices, full blocks and high transaction fees are important," he emphasized.
Straten likened the bitcoin blockchain to "a powerful train rushing down the tracks, but with no passengers."
"I hope bitcoiners realize that this space is more than just podcasts, audio rooms in X and 'constant growth' on the digital gold narrative. If we don't get people to use bitcoin for real commerce, it's game over," said former Nasdaq board member Nicholas Gregory.
A more optimistic viewpoint was expressed by a CryptoQuant author under the nickname Yonsei_dent. In his view, the steady rise in hashrate and difficulty against a declining price points to powerful fundamentals - primarily in the context of the intrinsic value of the asset and network security.
According to the Hashrate Index, hashrate is stagnating near a low of ~$40 per PH/s per day. The current figure is $44.3.
According to Yonsei_dent, the growth of technical metrics of the network may seem like a negative factor due to the increase in mining costs, but it only confirms the favorable prospects of bitcoin. The expert referred to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Yong Ju, who, analyzing the hash rate dynamics, allowed the potential capitalization of the first cryptocurrency to soar to $5 trillion.
Tariff context
What is fueling the excitement of miners in conditions that are far from favorable for the industry? According to Crosby, one of the reasons is the attempt of players, especially from the United States, to get ahead of the negative consequences of the upcoming "liberation" duties.
"Bitmain, the largest producer of mining equipment, may be hit. Against the background of changes in foreign trade policy, prices for ASIC devices may increase by 30-50%, and in the worst case - more than twice as much," the specialist said.
More than 40% of bitcoin's hashrate comes from U.S.-based pool giants like Foundry USA, MARA Pool and Luxor.
"This makes miners particularly vulnerable to rising costs: even a small increase in costs can severely impact profitability. Perhaps that's why there's a lot of capacity expansion going on right now - as long as equipment remains (relatively) affordable and accessible," Crosby said.
A shot in the foot?
Many industry experts expect the "exemption" duties announced on April 2 to negatively impact bitcoin miners in the U.S.
The majority of cryptocurrency mining devices are imported into the country from Malaysia (the new duty rate is 24%), Thailand (36%) and Indonesia (32%), noted Blockware Solutions founder and CEO Mason Jappa.
"Installations already delivered in the US will become more expensive," he stated.
BitMars general manager Summer Meng added China (54%) to the list. She emphasized that all factories of Bitmain, the largest manufacturer of bitcoin mining equipment, will be affected.
The Mining Pod analysts estimate that the China-based company controls about 80% of the global ASIC miner market. Its closest competitor and "compatriot" - MicroBT - holds about 7%, while the production facilities of both firms are concentrated in the same jurisdictions.
Both companies have previously announced the launch of production lines in the US. However, there is still no word on the actual scope of these projects. Moreover, chips for the equipment continue to arrive from overseas.
According to Lauren Lin, head of the equipment department at Luxor Technology, a service company, some suppliers in a hurry are trying to "jump on the last train" by urgently sending large shipments of ASIC miners from Asia to the United States.
The cost of equipment makes up a significant part of miners' expenses, and a more than 20 percent increase in procurement costs will significantly affect the profitability of the business, she added.
Synteq Digital CEO Taras Kulik believes that the announced tariffs will "suppress further development of the sector".
Hashlabs CEO Jaran Mellerud predicted a short-term increase in mining equipment imports amid a temporary "tariff reprieve."
Ahead of the reciprocal duties going into effect, US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day delay, leaving the base tariff of 10% in place.
According to Mellerud, such a levy is "significant but not fatal."
The cost of equipment makes up a significant part of miners' expenses, and a more than 20 percent increase in procurement costs will significantly affect the profitability of the business, she added.
Synteq Digital CEO Taras Kulik believes that the announced tariffs will "suppress further development of the sector".
Hashlabs CEO Jaran Mellerud predicted a short-term increase in mining equipment imports amid a temporary "tariff reprieve."
Ahead of the reciprocal duties going into effect, US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day delay, leaving the base tariff of 10% in place.
According to Mellerud, such a levy is "significant but not fatal."
For these reasons, miners will rush to import equipment to the United States in an attempt to get ahead of possible price increases in the future, the expert added.
Earlier, Mellerud calculated the consequences of the fees announced by Trump for American miners of the first cryptocurrency. According to his estimates, they will lead to a 24% increase in the price of equipment. The payback period for Bitmain's latest generation Antminer S21 miners will increase to 23 months versus 18 for companies outside the United States.
"The U.S. share of the global bitcoin mining industry is likely to decline because of the duties. The country will remain a major player, but the dominance will weaken, leading to a greater global distribution of hashrate," concluded Mellerud.
Mining continues
"Bitcoin mining has never been so unprofitable per terahash," Crosby said.
According to his observations, the hash price usually starts to rise at the end of the bear market: competition weakens and weak participants leave the market.
"But here the situation is completely different. Despite low profitability, miners are not only staying online, but also increasing their computing power. This may indicate two likely scenarios: either they seek to accelerate the accumulation of digital gold against the backdrop of declining margins, or, more optimistically, they are confident in the future profitability of bitcoin and actively buy on the decline," the expert noted.
As before, new, more energy-efficient and productive devices are appearing on the market. For example, Bitdeer has successfully tested the SEAL03 bitcoin mining chip, which demonstrated an energy efficiency of 9.7 J/TH. This matches the efficiency of Bitmain's flagship Antminer S21XP Hydro.
The firm plans to introduce a next-generation chip with 5 J/TH power consumption.
A spoonful of tar
Bitcoin sales by small-scale miners grew steadily in the first quarter, reported Coin Metrics.
Analysts estimate that after the halving of the April 2024, larger-capitalization miners were in a better position. They were able to upgrade to more efficient equipment and deploy in regions with cheap electricity. Some large firms like Core Scientific have diversified into the highly profitable field of AI computing.
Analysts at TheMinerMag revealed sales pressure from publicly traded mining companies - in March, coin sales volume hit its highest since October 2024.
15 major players "dumped" a total of more than 40% of their mining volume last month. At HIVE, Bitfarms and Ionic Digital, the figure exceeded 100%.
Experts attribute the March shift toward sales to a decrease in the profitability of mining amid stagnating hashprices near minimum levels and growing uncertainty due to trade wars.
"Miners are holding up well. Even despite the recent price drop, their sentiment is improving - a clear sign that they still believe in bitcoin's long-term potential," the analyst said.
Conclusion
Despite the unconvincing price dynamics, the hashrate of the first cryptocurrency continues to grow. The indicator updates historical maximums despite macroeconomic instability and market volatility.
Sharp changes in the US trade policy are not insignificant in the current situation: high duties on imports of mining equipment can significantly increase the cost of ASIC devices. U.S. miners and large pools risk facing higher costs, which partly explains the active build-up of capacity at still affordable prices for equipment.Sales pressure caused by economic uncertainty due to "liberation" tariffs remains a significant factor. However, many experts don't see what is happening as a sign of capitulation or panic. On the contrary, a rising hashrate with a stagnant price is a signal of innovation and confidence in bitcoin's long-term prospects.
