Bitcoin price continues to hold near the $87 000 mark, protecting itself from further declines despite the lack of sufficient catalysts for growth.
Services and Manufacturing PMI Indices
S&P Global's U.S. Manufacturing Business Activity Index (PMI) data due on Monday, March 24 will gauge the health of these crucial sectors of the economy. Recent trends show manufacturing holding steady at 52.7 and services following with a reading of 51.0.
Strong PMI readings could increase risk appetite, potentially lifting bitcoin as investors look for high-yielding assets. Conversely, readings below 50 signal economic contraction, stoking fears of recession and diverting capital flows away from cryptocurrencies.
With Trump's economic policies gaining momentum, any positive surprise could boost bullish sentiment, though sustained weakness could temper it.
"A busy week as we come to the end of Q1 2025. How will the markets close out the first quarter of Trumps new term?" - asked analyst Mark Cullen of AlphaBTC.
Consumer Confidence
The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board, due Tuesday, March 25, at 5 p.m. MSC, will reflect attitudes toward spending amid economic uncertainty. Despite strong job growth, February's drop to 98.3 - the sharpest since 2021 - hints at concern.
A return to the median forecast of 95.0 could signal a weakening in retail optimism, a key driver for the bitcoin market with a large share of retail investors, which could push prices up.
However, if confidence falls further, expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing could rise, leading to mixed results. Liquidity hopes could support the BTC price, but moves from risk assets could dominate.
Jobless claims
The unemployment claims report, due out Thursday, March 27, at 3:30 p.m. MSC, tracks labor market strength by showing the number of U.S. citizens filing for unemployment insurance.
The reading of 223 000 for the week ended March 15, slightly below the 224 000 expected, pointed to a cooling economy, a key point for Fed policy. It extended positive sentiment from the week ended March 8, when U.S. initial jobless claims totaled 220 000 compared with an expected 225 000.
This time, however, the median forecast is for a slight increase in initial jobless claims to 226 000 for the week ended March 22.
Higher rates could raise recession fears, pushing investors toward bitcoin as a hedge against volatility. On the other hand, lower readings could bolster traditional markets, diverting capital away from cryptocurrencies. With the Trump administration aiming to stimulate the labor market, this data could dramatically change sentiment.
GDP
Revised GDP Data for the fourth quarter of 2024, which will also be released on Thursday, March 27, at 15:30 MSC, is forecast at 2.3%. A stronger growth figure could reduce bitcoin's appeal as a risk asset if investors prefer equities, especially with the revised 2024 data showing annualized growth of 3%.
A weaker figure could increase speculation of rate cuts, increasing the attractiveness of BTC as a store of value. Crypto traders are watching to see how this aligns with recent updates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) signaling strong consumer spending.
Meanwhile, bitcoin veteran and economist George Selgin disputes claims that bitcoin's strategic reserve will boost GDP. The financial expert argues that the rising price of bitcoin does not directly or significantly affect the country's economic performance.
"...However, this price [of bitcoin] does not have a definite and significant impact on GDP, so by accumulating bitcoin, the government is not increasing GDP," he explained.
This point was made in reference to Trump's March order to create a strategic bitcoin reserve using confiscated assets.
PCE Index
Meanwhile, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE (Personal Consumer Expenditures) index, is due on Friday, March 28 (15:30 MSC). February's index will follow January's 2.5% annualized increase.
A higher-than-expected baseline PCE (excluding food and energy) could delay rate cuts, putting pressure on bitcoin as policy tightens. A softer reading could spark a rally, bolstering hopes for monetary easing. Given the continued resilience of inflation, this release could determine the short-term trajectory of BTC.
Cryptocurrency markets remain jittery, and these events could determine bitcoin's path amid shifting U.S. economic narratives.
