Bitcoin consolidated around $100,000–$110,000 after the "Trump pump," and analysts predict that BTC’s next market move will hinge on the upcoming FOMC meeting and potential quantitative easing. Despite reduced liquidity and profit-taking activity, some experts are still bullish, and predict Bitcoin could reach $150,000. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is optimistic that Bitcoin might surge to $700,000 due to inflation concerns and increasing institutional adoption, though he stopped short of endorsing it.
Bitcoin No Threat to the US Dollar
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon dismissed concerns that Bitcoin poses a threat to the dominance of the US dollar. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Solomon described Bitcoin as an "interesting speculative asset" while holding onto his belief in the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
He acknowledged that Bitcoin's foundational blockchain technology is an area of active research at Goldman Sachs as the firm is exploring ways it could reduce friction in the financial system. Despite the potential benefits, Solomon pointed out that regulatory restrictions prevent banks from directly owning or engaging in Bitcoin transactions, and stated, "We can’t principal, we can’t be involved with Bitcoin at all."
Solomon’s opinions are very similar to the views of Lee Bratcher, president of the Texas Blockchain Council. He argued that dollar-pegged stablecoins could reinforce the dollar's global dominance. According to Bratcher, stablecoins enable broader access to the dollar, particularly in regions where traditional banking systems are less accessible, and placed a lot of emphasis on their importance when it comes to maintaining the US dollar’s position as the world’s leading reserve currency.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen by 0.14% over the past 30 days, currently standing at 108.310, according to TradingView. During the same period, Bitcoin surged by 8+% to trade at $102,110.
Goldman Sachs is in the process of spinning out its cryptocurrency platform into a standalone company. This initiative is being led by Mathew McDermott, the firm’s global head of digital assets. The spinout is expected to be completed in the next 12 to 18 months, subject to regulatory approvals.
Analysts Predict Bitcoin Consolidation Ahead of FOMC Meeting
For now, Bitcoin’s price settled into a range between $100,000 and $110,000 after the recent "Trump pump" rally that was spurred by the newly elected US president. After a brief 3+% jump on Jan. 21, the cryptocurrency's price action consolidated over the past 24 hours, and some analysts now predict this sideways trend could extend until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Jan. 28–29.
Crypto trader Krillin suggested that the price may stay in this range unless an unexpected event disrupts the market. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 99.5% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged, which could lead to continued consolidation in the short term. However, any signals of possible quantitative easing (QE) during the FOMC meeting could trigger the next rally for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
The US national debt surpassed the $36.1 trillion ceiling after reaching $36.21 trillion, which historically led Congress to raise the limit. Analysts speculate that this situation might push the Federal Reserve to engage in QE by injecting liquidity into the markets through large-scale asset purchases. A move like this could reverse the ongoing quantitative tightening, which reduced the Fed’s balance sheet from close to $9 trillion in April of 2022 to $6.8 trillion as of Jan. 15. The potential return of QE could be a key driver for Bitcoin’s next leg upward, but more clarity is expected after the FOMC meeting.
Although Bitcoin was able to cross the $100,000 milestone, capital inflows have not kept pace. Glassnode data shows a large drop in BTC’s realized cap net position change, from 12.5% to below 5% since November of 2024. This means that there is reduced activity at higher price levels.
Additionally, net realized profit-taking, which peaked at $4.5 billion in December 2024, declined by 93% to $316.7 million. This reduction in sell-side pressure indicates that the market is resetting to a balance of supply and demand, but liquidity is still thin.
Despite the current lack of momentum, some analysts are still very bullish on Bitcoin’s longer-term prospects. Bitcoindata21 predicted that the total crypto market cap could double in the next six to eight weeks, with Bitcoin potentially reaching $150,000. By referring to historical patterns, the analyst pointed out that Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is rebounding from the bottom of its trend channel, which resembles past bull market signals from 2017 and 2020. As long as Bitcoin stays in this trend channel, the broader bull market seems to be intact for now.
Traders Predict Bitcoin Volatility
Other traders are now focusing on potential price movements below $100,000, with some analysts eyeing levels in the mid-to-high $90,000s. Crypto Chase suggested a potential long position around $99,500 but warned that prolonged trading below $96,000–$97,000 could invalidate a bullish outlook. Another trader, XO, identified the December price range, with lows near $90,000 and highs at $108,000, as the key zone for market movement. Acceptance beyond either boundary could establish a clear trend.
The 10-day simple moving average (SMA), is also a critical level to watch in the near term. Analyst Matthew Hyland recently noticed Bitcoin’s daily price action testing the SMA, indicating that a breakout or breakdown could occur by the end of the week.
Additionally, the Choppiness Index, which is a tool used to measure market volatility, is signaling an imminent end to Bitcoin’s recent consolidation phase. On-chain analyst James Check pointed out that the indicator is now primed for a breakout, which signals the conclusion of a period of “chopsolidation” near the $100,000 level.
BlackRock CEO Shares His Own Bitcoin Prediction
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink also spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos, and discussed Bitcoin's potential to surge to $700,000 per coin due to the growing concerns over currency debasement. He stated that small allocations of 2%–5% from asset managers could drive such a price increase. However, Fink made sure to clarify that his statements were not an endorsement of Bitcoin.
Larry Fink in Davos
Fink also shared his concerns about persistent inflation, and warned people against assuming that peak inflation levels already passed. While the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2024 came is slightly lower than expected at 3.2%, critics argued that CPI underestimates real inflation.
Shareholder proposals that were submitted to Meta and Amazon advocated for adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset by claiming that the true inflation rate could be nearly double the reported CPI figures. The National Center for Public Policy Research revealed that inflation averaged 4.95% over the past four years, with a peak of 9.1% in June of 2022.
