Polymarket Bets 86% on Spot XRP ETF Approval
Polymarket, a top crypto prediction platform, now pegs the odds of SEC approval for a spot XRP ETF at 86%.
What explains this high confidence level?
1. Legal Clarity Surrounding Ripple
In March 2025, the SEC formally dropped its longstanding lawsuit against Ripple, removing a major overhang for ETF issuers. This legal resolution reduced regulatory uncertainty and significantly bolstered confidence in XRP-based investment vehicles.
2. Growing Number of Institutional Filings
Leading asset managers, including Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, CoinShares, ProShares, and more, have all submitted spot XRP ETF proposals to the SEC.
The sheer volume and caliber of these filings suggest sustained institutional conviction in XRP’s long-term viability.
3. Futures ETFs Demonstrate Market Maturity
CME Group launched XRP futures ETFs in mid-May this year, drawing more than $542 million in the first month
More recently, ProShares introduced the Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP), a leveraged product on NYSE Arca, which surged on debut and re‑energized the narrative for spot approval. These developments signal demand and infrastructure maturity that regulators often seek.
4. Policy Developments and Framework Shifts
Regulatory momentum has also shifted in favor of crypto ETFs. New legislation, such as the GENIUS Act and SEC commentary from commissioners, especially Hester Peirce, suggest an evolving framework that reduces operational complexity for altcoin ETF issuers through in‑kind creation and redemption mechanisms.
5. Market Behavior and Prediction Dynamics
Polymarket’s 86% figure is underpinned by real money bets with total wagered volumes recently exceeding $114,000, reflecting serious investor conviction.
Historically, Polymarket’s prediction accuracy has exceeded 90% in betting markets shortly before resolution dates. The high odds also reflect growing sentiment that the SEC will complete the approval process before the December 31, 2025 resolution deadline.
Market implications
An 86% approval probability indicates widespread optimism. If a spot XRP ETF is approved:
Institutional capital may flow into XRP as showcased by Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which saw tens of billions in inflows post‑approval.
Liquidity and accessibility are set to improve because retail investors will gain regulated exposure to XRP via traditional brokerage accounts, without managing crypto wallets.
Price upside could be significant with some analysts anticipating XRP might rise toward the $20–$27 zone, driven by ETF approval momentum, though volatility remains high.
Ripple Officially Files Bank Charter Application with OCC
Ripple Labs has formally submitted its application to the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) seeking to establish Ripple National Trust Bank, a limited-purpose national trust bank fully owned by the company.
Consequently, Ripple has made Volume 1 of its interagency charter application publicly available, offering stakeholders an initial window into the entity’s proposed structure and intended operations.
This first volume outlines foundational details, such as the proposed headquarters in New York City, contact information, and a public notice announcing the filing.
Volume 1 makes clear that Ripple is pursuing a national trust bank charter, which would empower the entity to undertake fiduciary duties, stablecoin reserve management, and institutional custody services, rather than traditional deposit-taking or consumer lending activities.
Strategic Goals & Broader Context
Ripple aims to secure a Federal Reserve Master Account, which would allow it to directly settle payments, hold reserves for its stablecoin RLUSD at the Federal Reserve, and bypass traditional intermediary banks, resulting in faster, more cost-effective settlement systems.
Reactions & Implications
The American Bankers Association and other banking groups, including the Independent Community Bankers of America, have formally opposed Ripple’s charter bid, citing concerns that a crypto-affiliated trust bank might erode consumer protections and destabilize traditional banking structures.
However, industry observers note that under Comptroller Rodney Hood, the OCC has adopted a more crypto-friendly posture, rescinding prior restrictive guidance and historically rarely denying new charter applications.
As majors like Circle and BitGo pursue similar charters, Ripple’s bid puts it at the forefront of a broader effort by crypto firms to bridge into regulated finance.
Conclusion
With Volume 1 public and the charter filing formalized, Ripple is set to redefine how stablecoins operate under U.S. federal oversight, turning ambition into architecture and innovation into institutional integration.
Meanwhile, Polymarket’s 86% approval probability for a spot XRP ETF reflects a convergence of legal progress, institutional filings, market infrastructure maturity, and evolving regulatory sentiment.
Therefore, this probability underscores a broad expectation that a US-based spot XRP ETF is increasingly viewed not as a question of if, but when.
