Trader Oliver Velez and Cane Island’s Timothy Peterson both pointed out that historically, the second half of October tends to be more bullish for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the IMF once again urged El Salvador to scale back its Bitcoin policies, and believes there is a need for stricter regulations. On a positive note, Bermuda-based Relm Insurance introduced the first Bitcoin-denominated business interruption insurance for miners. Additionally, filmmaker Cullen Hoback's upcoming documentary, "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery," is set to explore the identity of Bitcoin's creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.
Bitcoin's Slow October Start May Set Up Bullish Surge
October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, and is even often referred to as “Uptober” due to its bullish tendencies. However, trader Oliver Velez argues that placing too much emphasis on the entire month is a mistake. In a post on X, Velez pointed out that it’s typically the second half of October that has more bullish trends, not the first half. He also encouraged traders to take a broader view, and focus on the period from October through May, rather than isolating one month.
Supporting this view, Cane Island Alternative Advisors founder Timothy Peterson also pointed out that most of “Uptober” doesn’t actually begin until after Oct. 19. He advised that traders should be more patient in an Oct. 2 post on X.
Velez further explained that the current weakness in the market could set the stage for a strong rally later in the month. He compared this period to the market "squatting" before leaping into a more sustained bullish phase in the coming months.
Both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have seen price declines since the beginning of October, which made this the worst start to October for Bitcoin in at least ten years, according to Peterson. Despite the slow start, Velez believes this downturn is part of the setup for a bullish aftermath. He is still confident that October typically kicks off one of the most bullish parts of Bitcoin’s cycle.
Meanwhile, pseudonymous trader Titan of Crypto also shared that September performed better than expected after closing with a green candle despite market fears. They believe that although the beginning of October has seen some negative sentiment, the market could still surprise traders as the month progresses.
Overall, despite the gloomy start, most people seem optimistic that Bitcoin could still see major gains in the latter part of the month.
IMF Urges Shift on Bitcoin in El Salvador
During an Oct. 3 press conference, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) renewed its pressure on El Salvador to scale back its Bitcoin policies and adjust its regulatory framework around the digital asset. Julie Kozack, the IMF’s communications director, did not specify the exact details but placed a lot of emphasis on the need to narrow the scope of the Bitcoin Law, enhance regulatory oversight of the Bitcoin ecosystem, and limit the public sector’s exposure to Bitcoin.
IMF press briefing transcript (Source: IMF)
This is not the first time the IMF urged El Salvador to step away from Bitcoin since the country legalized it as legal tender in 2021. In August of 2024, the IMF reiterated similar demands but acknowledged that many of the anticipated risks associated with Bitcoin adoption did not materialize just yet.
The IMF’s opposition to Bitcoin is very well-known, especially as global fiat currencies continue to devalue. While people and some nation-states are slowly moving away from traditional debt-based fiat systems toward Bitcoin’s sound monetary principles, the IMF has consistently advised against these shifts.
In 2023, the IMF helped Andorra monitor Bitcoin transactions and also suggested that Pakistan impose a capital gains tax on crypto to qualify for a $3 billion loan. More recently, the IMF proposed taxing the energy used in crypto mining to reduce carbon emissions, which could increase energy costs for miners by 85%. This will just add even more strain to an industry that is already grappling with post-halving challenges and rising mining difficulty.
While the IMF is still very opposed to Bitcoin and non-state-controlled cryptocurrencies, it has been actively working on the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) worldwide. In September, the IMF introduced its “REDI” framework for CBDC development, focusing on regulation, education, design, and incentives to assist central banks in making CBDC adoption more appealing to the public.
First Bitcoin Business Interruption Insurance
Although the IMF has Bitcoin firmly in its crosshairs, it is not stopping the rest of the world from taking advantage of the crypto king’s potential. Bermuda-registered Relm Insurance introduced a business interruption policy specifically designed for bitcoin miners. It also became the first to offer this coverage denominated in Bitcoin.
The policy was announced on Thursday, and it aims to provide financial protection to bitcoin miners in the event of operational interruptions caused by physical damage to equipment or facilities. This comes at a time when bitcoin mining companies are facing some serious challenges, including the halving of block rewards for producing new BTC and price pressures due to selling and geopolitical factors. These issues are exacerbated even more by potential operational losses from equipment wear and tear or power outages.
Relm’s ability to offer indemnification in bitcoin is made possible through its Class Innovative Insurer General Business (IIGB) license from the Bermuda Monetary Authority, which makes it possible for the company to provide coverage in the same currency miners are producing.
New Film Explores Bitcoin Mystery
In other Bitcoin-related news, documentary filmmaker Cullen Hoback and HBO announced the upcoming release of their film “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery.” The announcement hinted at the potential revelation of the true identity of Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto.
Hoback is known for his HBO miniseries “Q: Into the Storm,” where he investigated the origins of the QAnon conspiracy theory, and has now turned his attention to uncovering the mysterious engineer behind Bitcoin. While the filmmaker did not explicitly state that Nakamoto’s identity has been definitively uncovered, he teased the possibility and also called the film a “rollercoaster.”
The documentary is set to air on Oct. 8, and explores the longstanding mystery surrounding Satoshi Nakamoto, who has been under the radar since December of 2010. Hoback’s investigation delves into whether Nakamoto was an individual, a group, or someone previously overlooked. Although the film’s trailer and Hoback’s statements imply a potential revelation, no confirmation has been made about any person’s identification.
The search for Nakamoto’s identity has intrigued the cryptocurrency community for years now. Many candidates have been suggested, including computer scientist Craig Wright, who at one point claimed to be Nakamoto but later rescinded his statements. Even the FBI has neither confirmed nor denied having information on Nakamoto.
Naturally, the film’s release has already generated a lot of speculation, and many people are eager to see if Hoback truly uncovered Bitcoin’s elusive creator. If this actually happens, it could have massive implications for the financial world.
