This pattern could mirror one seen in late 2022, which preceded a period of weakness before Bitcoin's eventual breakout. While some traders consider the current market conditions as bearish, institutions are showing growing interest through Bitcoin ETFs, and analysts predict a bullish fourth quarter, with the potential for Bitcoin to reach between $85,000 and $100,000 by year-end. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin community in North Carolina is mobilizing relief efforts for areas that were affected by Hurricane Helene.
Peter Brandt Hints at Bitcoin Slump
Trader Peter Brandt pointed out that Bitcoin (BTC) may be forming a “three blind mice” pattern, which some analysts interpret as a sign that the asset could experience more declines in the coming days. In an Oct. 2 post on X, Brandt shared with his followers that Bitcoin is showing signs of this “infamous Three Blind Mice and a Piece of Cheese” trading pattern.
According to technical analysis data from Morpher, this pattern is typically considered a continuation pattern. This means that the direction in which the “three blind mice” are pointing will likely indicate the future trajectory of the price.
Brandt previously noticed the same pattern forming in December of 2022 when Bitcoin was trading at around $17,000. After that, Bitcoin entered a period of weakness before breaking out to the upside in early 2023.
In his Oct. 2 update, Brandt also shared that Bitcoin’s recent rally has not disrupted its ongoing downtrend of lower highs and lower lows which has persisted for about seven months. He warned that only a move above $71,000 and a new all-time high will confirm that the uptrend from November 2022 is still intact.
Some traders believe Brandt’s reference to the “three blind mice” pattern is a light-hearted take on the traditional “three black crows” pattern, which is often used to signal a reversal of an uptrend. The name may also be inspired by the nursery rhyme that repeats “three blind mice, see how they run.”
The sudden downturn in BTC’s price over the past few days can be attributed to a combination of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, concerns about the strength of the US economy, as well as the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US election.
Whales Hold Off on Selling
On the other hand, an analysis of Bitcoin's unrealized profit ratio comparing new and old whales indicates that large holders have not yet realized enough profits to justify selling off their holdings. In an Oct. 2 post, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young explained that newer Bitcoin whales, who are those holding BTC for five months or less, will only see a 1% profit if they sold at current market prices.
Older whales, who have held their positions for more than five months, are faring slightly better as their unrealized profit ratio reached 1.27 as of Sept. 30. Despite this, these more established whales have not experienced any major returns during the current cycle, and Ju believes they are very unlikely to offload their Bitcoin until liquidity from retail investors pushes prices higher to give them a better exit opportunity.
Bitcoin’s price has been under more pressure because of escalating tensions in the Middle East between Iran and Israel. On Oct. 1, US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw outflows of close to $243 million. This was their largest drawdown in nearly a month and reversed eight consecutive days of inflows.
Naturally, this uncertainty has led some investors to predict that Bitcoin could fall to $54,000 or lower as geopolitical concerns and macroeconomic risks drive investors away from risk-on assets like BTC.
Veteran analyst Willy Woo still has a long-term bullish view on Bitcoin but also warned that the asset may take time to reach its previous all-time high of $74,000. Woo expects prices to trade sideways through October, with more movement possibly starting in November or December of 2024.
CryptoQuant Predicts Bullish Q4 for Bitcoin
CryptoQuant analysts also noticed that Bitcoin is entering a period of positive seasonality, but a big increase in demand is necessary for the price to reach $100,000 in the fourth quarter. Historically, Bitcoin performed well in October during bull cycles, especially in halving years like 2024. In previous halving years like 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin's price rose by 9%, 59%, and 171%, respectively. CryptoQuant's report revealed that Bitcoin's performance in 2024 up to September has been comparable to 2016 and 2020.
The report also shared that while Bitcoin was in a bull phase between March and August, the price entered a bear phase for three weeks between August and September. Going into the last quarter, the crypto king is now positioned between the bull and bear phases. This was not the case in 2020, when it entered Q4 in a clear bull phase.
Comparison between 2020 and 2024 Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator (Source: CryptoQuant)
Additionally, the report pointed out that Bitcoin's demand stalled since July, fluctuating between -23,000 and +69,000 BTC on a monthly basis, compared to much higher demand growth in April. This slowdown indicates that demand still has room to rise in the coming months to support a higher price.
Institutional demand, particularly through US-based Bitcoin ETFs, is seen as key to driving further price increases. From Sept. 2 to Sept. 30, ETF demand shifted from net selling to net buying. SoSoValue data also showed that spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $1.8 billion in net inflows between Sept. 13 and Sept. 30, which indicated growing institutional interest in anticipation of higher prices.
CoinShares, a London-based asset manager, reported more than $1 billion in inflows into Bitcoin investment products between Sept. 23 and Sept. 27, driven by the approval of options for certain US investment products.
CryptoQuant analysts suggest that if demand continues to grow, Bitcoin could reach prices between $85,000 and $100,000 by the end of December.
Bitcoin Community Mobilizes Aid Convoy
Although there is still some uncertainty about exactly what Bitcoin’s next move will be, Bitcoiners are not letting it stop them from making a difference. North Carolina’s Bitcoin community is organizing a convoy of emergency personnel, including physicians, volunteers, and retired military members, to provide crucial aid in the state’s mountain region after the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene.
The initiative will start on Oct. 4, and the 12-person team will depart from the Greensboro area, equipped with six trucks, utility vehicles, trailers, and even a horse and a mule, according to Dan Spuller of the North Carolina Blockchain Association. The convoy will also carry chainsaws and medical supplies to help with clearing paths and searching for missing people.
The effort is coordinated by the North Carolina Blockchain Initiative, Bitcoin Mining Museum, and HM Tech, and will focus on the western part of the state. There will also be specific focus on the Appalachian Mountains and Ashe County, which was one of the most severely impacted areas. The team will prioritize “overlooked” communities that have received minimal state or federal support and those which are still cut off from vital supplies. The Bitcoin community is accepting donations in both Bitcoin and fiat currencies to support the mission.
Hurricane Helene was a category 4 storm, and has claimed at least 189 lives and caused widespread damage across seven US states, including North Carolina, where severe flooding and road closures have left many areas inaccessible. There are, however, still hundreds of people missing, and the death toll is expected to rise.
