Bitcoin price's recent rebound above the $79,000 area has not yet confirmed a durable bottom, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt, who warned that BTC remains inside a broader corrective structure rather than a verified reversal pattern.
Brandt said Bitcoin has “NOT NOT NOT” completed a recognizable bottom, pointing to a daily chart structure that resembles a bear channel developing from the February low. In his view, the latest rise should be treated as a rally within that channel until price delivers a decisive daily close above the upper boundary.
Bitcoin was trading near $79,660 after testing resistance close to the upper side of the channel. The level has become important because the recent rally from April lows has pushed price directly into a zone where sellers previously regained control.
Brandt identified $79,145 as the key level to watch. He said an ATR close below $79,145 would suggest that the recent advance is losing momentum and that rejection from the channel resistance is becoming more relevant.
Peter Brandt Says Bitcoin Bulls Need Clean Breakout
Brandt’s technical view centers on whether Bitcoin can break above the upper boundary of the current channel. Without that move, the market remains inside a structure that can still favor lower levels.
If Bitcoin closes below $79,145 on an ATR basis, the next area to watch would be the midpoint of the channel. That level could act as the next support zone if buyers try to defend the broader recovery.
Source: X
If the midpoint fails, the lower boundary of the channel would become the next downside objective. In that scenario, Bitcoin could revisit lower price zones before a stronger base forms.
Brandt’s warning comes as Bitcoin tests its 200-day moving average near $82,400. On-chain analysts have compared the current setup with March 2022, when BTC rallied 43% before hitting the 200-day moving average and then resumed a broader downtrend.
Bitcoin has gained about 37% from its April lows, but resistance near the 200-day moving average has limited follow-through so far. Traders are watching whether the level becomes a breakout point or another rejection zone.
Profit-Taking Adds Pressure Near Resistance
On-chain data shows that short-term traders are holding elevated unrealized profits after Bitcoin’s rebound. Trader unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, the highest reading since June 2025.
Higher unrealized profit levels can raise the chance of selling because holders who bought lower may decide to lock in gains as the price reaches resistance. Similar profit margin levels appeared in March 2022 when Bitcoin tested the 200-day moving average before moving lower.
Source: CryptoQuant
Daily realized profits also increased sharply. Realized profits reached 14.6K BTC on May 4, the highest level since December 10, 2025. That shows more holders have started selling into strength after the recent recovery.
The Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium also turned negative in late April and stayed below zero as Bitcoin moved toward $80,000. A negative Coinbase premium can show weaker U.S. spot demand compared with other markets.
Spot apparent demand has improved from a contraction of 91K BTC in April to about 11K BTC, but it remains negative. At the same time, part of the recent demand has come from perpetual futures activity rather than stronger spot accumulation.
Inflation Data Supports Cautious Market View
Brandt’s warning also comes as U.S. inflation data adds pressure to risk assets. Producer inflation reportedly came in hotter than expected, with PPI year over year rising to 6% compared with a 4.8% forecast. Core PPI year over year rose to 5.2%.
Higher inflation can reduce the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts and keep liquidity conditions tighter for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Markets have already become more cautious after recent CPI data showed inflation at a three-year high.
Source: Santiment
Despite the short-term warning, Bitcoin has outperformed several major assets over the past three months. BTC has gained about 20%, compared with an 8% gain for the S&P 500 and a 6% decline in gold over the same period.
