NVIDIA shares closed at $192.85, up 0.68%, and ticked higher to $194.30 in pre-market trading as Wall Street prepared for the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release at Wednesday’s close. Futures pointed modestly higher before the bell, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each up 0.2%.
The chipmaker stands out in 2026. While most trillion-dollar tech peers have posted losses this year, Nvidia has gained about 3% YTD. In contrast, the Nasdaq has dropped more than 2.5%. That divergence is all about Nvidia’s central role in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Yet it also raises a question: can expectations climb any higher?
Wall Street Expects $66B in Revenue
Analysts expect Nvidia to report fourth-quarter revenue of roughly $66 billion, a 68% jump from a year earlier. For the April quarter, forecasts call for $72 billion in revenue, representing 63% annual growth. Adjusted earnings per share are projected at $1.53, up 72%, while gross margins may reach 75%.
The data center segment remains the engine. Wall Street expects $61 billion in data center revenue, up 70% year over year. NVIDIA now generates about 90% of its revenue from this business, which powers training and deployment of large language models.
Major hyperscalers continue to expand aggressively. Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon plan to spend nearly $700 billion combined this year on AI-related infrastructure. Analysts note that capital expenditures for 2026 may exceed prior projections, with servers and AI systems representing the bulk of forward spending. That dynamic supports Nvidia’s sales trajectory.
However, some investors question whether the industry risks overbuilding. If CapEx peaks sooner than expected, Nvidia could feel the impact disproportionately. The debate adds tension heading into the results.
Product Roadmap And Blackwell Momentum
Investors will also focus on Nvidia’s next-generation platforms. CEO Jensen Huang previously said the company shipped 6 million Blackwell GPUs over the past four quarters. Nvidia expects $500 billion in GPU sales tied to the Blackwell generation and the forthcoming Vera Rubin rack-scale systems.
Excitement surrounds the Vera Rubin launch later this year. Market participants will listen closely for details about demand trends and production timelines. Strong guidance could reinforce confidence in sustained AI spending. On the other hand, cautious commentary may amplify skepticism.
Wedbush analysts maintain a $230 price target, roughly 20% above recent levels. They argue that hyperscale investment trends support continued expansion. Over 90% of analysts tracked by FactSet recommend buying the stock, reflecting broad institutional support.
Groq Deal Could Add a Huge Strategic Layer
Another focal point involves Nvidia’s acquisition of assets from AI chip startup Groq for about $20 billion. The transaction strengthens Nvidia’s position in inference, which focuses on real-time decision-making using trained models.
Groq’s leadership team joined Nvidia following the deal, and analysts seek clarity on integration plans. Investors want to understand how Nvidia will leverage the technology to compete with custom ASIC providers. Could this acquisition ease concerns about rising competition?
NVIDIA prepares to report, and markets face a simple yet complex reality. Demand for AI computing power appears robust. At the same time, valuation sensitivity and capex fears linger.
The earnings call may offer the clearest signal yet on whether Nvidia’s growth story accelerates further or encounters resistance.
