Benjamin Cowen argues that if Bitcoin is already in a bear market, Ethereum is unlikely to sustain a breakout to new all-time highs, even if it briefly revisits previous peaks. He warns that a rally toward the $4,878 level could turn into a bull trap, followed by a sharp reversal back toward $2,000.
Ethereum Upside Limited
Ethereum is unlikely to reach new all-time highs over the coming year if Bitcoin remains under pressure. This is according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, who shared his outlook during a recent appearance on the Bankless podcast.
Cowen said that if Bitcoin is indeed in what feels like a broader bear market, it would be difficult for Ethereum to sustain a meaningful breakout. In his view, the macro conditions that typically allow Ethereum to surge to new highs are closely tied to Bitcoin’s market structure, and without a strong foundation from BTC, upside momentum for ETH may be limited.
The comments also follow a bearish projection from veteran trader Peter Brandt, who warned in mid-December that Bitcoin could fall as low as $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026. That outlook added to growing caution among analysts who believe the market may be transitioning into a longer consolidation or downturn phase rather than a renewed bull cycle. Cowen suggested that even if Ethereum were to reclaim its previous all-time high close to $4,878, such a move could ultimately prove to be a bull trap rather than the start of a sustained rally.
Ethereum briefly pushed back to its 2021 peak in late August before entering a prolonged decline that dragged the price below $3,000 by November. At current levels, a return to that all-time high would require a gain of more than 40%, based on pricing data from CoinCodex.
ETH’s price action over the past 6 months (Source: CoinCodex)
While Cowen acknowledged that such a move is technically possible, he still warned that it will likely be followed by a sharp reversal, potentially sending Ethereum back toward the $2,000 level. He also explained that even a renewed ETH rally will probably not spill over into a broader altcoin resurgence.
According to Cowen, Ethereum is the only major altcoin that still appears capable of revisiting previous highs this cycle, while many others may already be past their peak. This view aligns with warnings from Fundstrat Global Advisors, which reportedly told investors to prepare for a “meaningful drawdown” in 2026 that could push Ethereum into the $1,800 to $2,000 range.
