The company’s bullish momentum propelled its market cap past $118 billion. At the same time, Bitcoin’s social media dominance recently surged to 43%, which is historically seen as a sign of short-term cooling, though analysts are still very divided on what BTC’s next move will be. Meanwhile, macro voices like Tim Draper argue that a declining US dollar—not halving cycles—will drive Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
Strategy Gearing Up for More Bitcoin
Michael Saylor, the co-founder of Strategy, hinted at another major Bitcoin (BTC) purchase after the company’s holdings surpassed $71 billion. On July 14, Strategy bought 4,225 BTC for $472.5 million, pushing its total stash to 601,550 BTC. This trove is now valued at over $71.4 billion,and generated around $28.5 billion in unrealized gains. This is according to data from SaylorTracker. Strategy continues to be a dominant force in the current Bitcoin bull cycle, alongside institutional investors, ETFs, and crypto exchanges.
The company's bullish stance paid off in equity markets as well. Strategy’s stock climbed 15.2% over the past month, which helped push its total market valuation past $118 billion.
Strategy stock price over the past month (Source: Google Finance)
The surge coincides with the broader market momentum, including the overall crypto market capitalization almost breaching the $4 trillion mark in July and Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. Strategy's growing prominence was rewarded in December of 2024, when it was added to the Nasdaq 100 index, thanks to increased institutional interest.
Many institutional investors seek Bitcoin exposure but are restricted by mandates that prevent direct crypto purchases. Instead, they turn to Bitcoin-focused public companies or corporate debt products as proxies. Macro strategist Lyn Alden explained that several fund managers are bound by rules that limit their portfolios to equities only, barring them from holding bonds, ETFs, or commodities—including Bitcoin itself.
A prime example of this workaround is Vanguard. Despite its longstanding opposition to Bitcoin, Vanguard now owns 20 million shares of Strategy, which accounts for 8% of the company’s outstanding stock. This indirect investment strategy means that Bitcoin is getting integrated deeper into traditional finance, as even conservative legacy firms look for exposure through compliant, publicly traded vehicles.
Social Buzz Signals Bitcoin Cooldown?
Bitcoin’s new all-time high of close to $123,100 captured almost half of all crypto-related social media discussions and triggered debate about whether retail investors are driving the rally or still sitting on the sidelines. According to sentiment analysis platform Santiment, Bitcoin mentions made up 43.06% of all crypto chatter as its price peaked. This is an unusually high level of dominance that historically preceded short-term pullbacks.
Analyst Brian Quinlivan pointed out that the sudden rise in discussion signals a potential wave of retail FOMO, which often coincides with local tops in the market. This contrasts with other industry views, like Bitwise’s André Dragosch. He believes retail interest is still limited despite Bitcoin’s record highs.
Bitcoin social dominance (Source: Santiment)
Just days after the peak, Bitcoin retraced to around $117,011, reinforcing the pattern Santiment warned about. Quinlivan advised that waiting for sentiment to cool could provide a better entry point, and specifically pointed out similar optimism spikes on June 11 and July 7 that led to price dips. Despite these cautionary signals, not all analysts agree that the rally is nearing its end.
BTC’s price action over the past week (Source: CoinMarketCap)
CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler Jr mentioned that Bitcoin has not yet triggered its “peak signal” metric, which typically indicates market overheating. Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital’s Michael Harvey suggested the asset might enter a brief consolidation phase but still has room to climb higher by the end of the month.
Bitcoin’s Future Driven by Dollar Decline
Tim Draper, founding partner of Draper Associates, believes that macroeconomic forces, particularly the weakening of the US dollar, will play a larger role in Bitcoin’s future than the halving cycles that have traditionally driven its boom-and-bust patterns.
In an interview, Draper predicted that the dollar could become extinct within the next 10 to 20 years, and described the current transition as an “anthropological leap forward.” He sees Bitcoin as a global “escape valve” from inflation, institutional distrust, and geopolitical instability, arguing that these larger forces are accelerating adoption of the supply-limited cryptocurrency.
Tim Draper
While Draper acknowledged that Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle will continue to influence its price, he suggested that its impact may weaken over time in the face of dominant macroeconomic trends. He expats that a broader macro driver will shape Bitcoin’s trajectory more in the future.
This view is very different from those who still believe the halving cycle remains intact, including Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca. However, Bitwise analyst Jeff Park agreed with Draper’s broader view earlier this year, and pointed to Bitcoin’s potential growth amid geopolitical tensions, inflation, and a fading US dollar.
Meanwhile, the US government emphasized the role of dollar-backed stablecoins in preserving the dollar’s reserve currency status, particularly by leveraging blockchain infrastructure to expand global access. On the other hand, Bitcoin advocates like Max Keiser argue that dollar-pegged stablecoins are only a short-term fix. He believes alternatives like gold-backed tokens and Bitcoin itself are better positioned to replace the dollar.
