This sideways dance has been going on since the start of 2025 with a wait-and-see approach taking center stage.
XRP’s Bullish Symmetrical Triangle Plays Out
According to Vlad Hryniv, XRP is coiling within a large symmetrical triangle, signaling growing pressure for a major move. With $2 serving as strong structural support, the setup favors a bullish breakout once consolidation tightens.
The market analyst added, “XRP’s caught between the 50-day MA ($2.22) and 200-day MA resistance ($2.36). Bulls and bears are playing a waiting game — neither wants to push it too far. RSI confirms: no overbought or oversold extremes, just calm before the storm.”
Hryniv believes that the next major catalyst for XRP could be a favorable outcome in the Ripple vs. SEC case, paving the way for relisting on U.S. exchanges.
Combined with rising institutional demand through RippleNet’s On-Demand Liquidity and continuous XRP Ledger enhancements, such as the recent XRPL EVM Sidechain, are poised to renew XRP’s momentum and broader utility.
Could XRP reach $5 in 2025? Hryniv pointed out that it’s a stretch, but a breakout above the $3.50–$4.00 range would signal strong momentum and open the door to new all-time highs, especially if regulatory clarity and adoption trends align.
Meanwhile, XRP’s journey to $10 might be taking shape since Ripple Labs seeks to step deeper into traditional finance by seeking a national bank charter from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), an ambitious move that could position the company as a regulated U.S. banking entity and expand its influence in cross-border payments.
XRP’s Futures Open Interest Skyrockets
XRP’s futures open interest (OI) surged to its highest level in five months, signaling renewed trader enthusiasm.
Data from Velo shows that cumulative open interest across major exchanges, such as Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Hyperliquid briefly reached 800 million XRP, the strongest since January 19 this year.
Although it has since settled around 743 million XRP, this still marks a 33 % increase from the late June low of 555 million XRP.
Why It Matters
Open interest represents the total number of active futures contracts. A rising OI, especially when paired with stable or rising spot prices, indicates fresh capital flowing into the market and growing conviction.
In this case, the bullish tilt is even more pronounced, as reflected by consistently positive funding rates, occasionally annualizing above 10 %, and a long/short ratio near 1.9:1 on Binance.
Technical analysts have flagged a breakout from a weekly bullish pennant, a classic chart formation often followed by sharp moves.
This mirrors earlier patterns witnessed between April and May 2025 where a similar OI jump preceded a 65 % price rally. The current pennant breakout targets $3.20–$3.40, estimating upside potential of 40%.
Catalysts Ahead:
Key events that could trigger the transition from futures optimism to real gains include:
Regulatory Clarity: Ripple’s applications for a U.S. banking license and progress on potential ETF approvals remain pivotal.
Institutional Inflows: Sustained positive funding rates and an increasing long bias suggest that large investors are positioning for a breakout.
Technical Breakout: A decisive close above the pennant’s upper trendline (near $2.40–$2.45) would likely catalyze the next leg toward the psychological price.
Conclusion
With XRP open interest in perpetual futures hitting a five-month high, backed by strong funding rates and bullish sentiment, technical patterns suggest a breakout toward the $3.20–$3.40 range, with triggers coming from regulatory developments and institutional flows.
Therefore, this remains a bullish setup on watch with both significant upside potential and attendant risks.
