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Bitcoin's price is once more at a crossroads and this time, the catalyst could not be hype or halving cycles, but a supply contraction the market has never seen.
Sygnum's June 2025 outlook sounds an alarm that the liquid supply of Bitcoin has decreased by 30% over the past 18 months, as ETFs, corporate treasuries, and long-term holders continue draining coins from exchanges.
The Numbers: Where Did All the Bitcoin Go?
Sygnum analysts note a dismal trend: more than 1 million BTC have departed exchanges since the end of 2023. The perpetrators? Spot Bitcoin ETFs—now the "marginal buyer" of BTC — corporate purchasers, and new government appetite for Bitcoin reserves.
The report states ETF inflows have topped $375 million on one day in this June, led by funds such as ARKB and FBTC. This hoarding is reducing the tradable float, making it more difficult for traders to get liquidity and simpler for price to shoot up on new demand.
"Bitcoin's rapidly diminishing liquid supply is building the foundations for demand shocks and upside volatility," Sygnum said in its monthly outlook.
ETFs, States, and the Halving Lag
What's different this time? First, institutional demand is incessant. Bitcoin ETFs have had only four days of withdrawals since April, and U.S. states like New Hampshire and Texas are making laws in order to allow Bitcoin reserves.
Outside of the U.S., Pakistan and even a ruling U.K. party are inquiring about official BTC allotments.
While these government purchases remain largely symbolic as of yet, Sygnum warns that "when these commence, they could become a leading driver of price motion higher, both because of the demand it injects and because of the signaling factor.".
Second, the latest halving cut new supply in half, exactly when demand is building up. Miners' inventories are low, and with fewer coins to sell, any purchasing urge will drive BTC prices dramatically higher.
Lessons from Past Supply Shocks
History also shows that when the liquid supply of Bitcoin dries up, price action can be very spectacular. In past cycles, gigantic rallies have followed gigantic accumulation by institutionals and long-term players.
Sygnum's analysis suggests the current setup even more so, with the "whale ratio" of large holders at record lows — a traditional sign of bullish activity.
"Substantial demand will have a large multiplier effect, i.e., each $1 of demand causing, for example, $20-30 of added market capitalization," says Sygnum's research head, Katalin Tischhauser.
What Could Push BTC Over $110K?
- ETF inflows: As pensions and funds increasingly invest in Bitcoin, even modest amounts could trigger out-of-proportion price action.
- Government reserves: Governments or states stepping in to buy, the signaling effect alone may cause FOMO.
- Safe-haven demand: With dollar vulnerability and U.S. Treasury unsafety, investors are seeking refuge: gold and Bitcoin are the go-to.
- Halving lag: It will likely not be until several months from now before the full impact of April's halving is even realized, but as new supply declines, the potential for a demand shock multiplier remains elevated.
Social Buzz
Crypto Twitter is filled with speculation of a fresh "ETF-driven supercycle." Specialists point to the insatiable flows of ETFs and the drying-up of exchange balances as a recipe for supply shock.
"If this keeps going, BTC at $110K or even $130K isn't crazy," wrote @BTCMacro.
Other experts warn of volatility: with so little liquidity, even small sell-offs could trigger sudden dives, but the bias, for the time being, is firmly to the upside.
With Bitcoin supply at multi-year lows and demand on the rise only, Sygnum's warning is clear: the next breakout may be closer—and more severe—than anyone can imagine.
