The growing intersection of cryptocurrency and government policy is becoming increasingly evident, with recent developments at both the state and federal levels. In Texas, the Senate Banking Committee has advanced a bill that could establish a Bitcoin and cryptocurrency strategic reserve, positioning the state as a leader in digital asset adoption. Meanwhile, at the national level, Standard Chartered has projected that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 this year and potentially $500,000 before the end of President Donald Trump’s second term, citing increasing institutional adoption and evolving regulatory clarity.
Bitcoin’s Path to $500K? Standard Chartered Sees Trump’s Presidency as a Net Positive for BTC
The first month of Donald Trump’s presidency has been anything but stable for risk assets, but his administration could prove to be a long-term boon for Bitcoin, according to Standard Chartered. Despite recent volatility, the bank sees significant upside for the leading cryptocurrency, predicting a price surge to $200,000 this year and an eventual climb to $500,000 before the end of Trump’s second term.
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, made the bold projection in a recent interview with CNBC. He attributed the potential rally to growing institutional adoption and an increasingly favorable regulatory environment, both of which could propel Bitcoin to unprecedented heights.
“It’s institutions like ours that now offer custody businesses that are much more secure than the hacks,” Kendrick noted.
This sentiment reflects a broader trend where traditional financial institutions are playing a more active role in crypto markets. The approval and launch of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have driven institutional demand, reinforcing the narrative that Bitcoin is becoming a mainstream financial asset.
While the long-term outlook appears optimistic, Bitcoin’s short-term price action has been far from smooth. After reaching an all-time high of $109,000 in January, BTC has since retraced to around $80,000, weighed down by macroeconomic concerns and geopolitical tensions. President Trump’s aggressive trade policies—particularly his renewed tariff threats against China, Canada, and Mexico—have rattled global markets, contributing to Bitcoin’s recent correction.
The Kobeissi Letter, a well-regarded market commentary platform, pointed out that Bitcoin’s sharp reaction to tariff threats shows its growing correlation with equities and broader liquidity conditions. Historically viewed as a hedge against traditional markets, Bitcoin now appears more intertwined with macroeconomic events than ever before.
Despite the short-term turbulence, industry experts believe Bitcoin remains in a strong bull cycle. Global Macro Investor analyst Julien Bittel emphasized that corrections are normal in bull markets, particularly following a sharp run-up in price after the US presidential election.
Meanwhile, Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, highlighted that two out of three key liquidity indicators have turned bullish despite the recent downturn. Expanding central bank balance sheets and increasing global money supply typically create a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin’s price appreciation. The final piece of the puzzle, according to Coutts, is the US dollar’s trajectory—if the greenback weakens, Bitcoin’s upward momentum could accelerate.
Security Concerns Remain a Challenge
While institutional players are bringing credibility and legitimacy to the crypto sector, security risks remain a major concern. The recent $1.4-billion hack of crypto exchange Bybit is a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities still present in digital asset markets.
Standard Chartered’s prediction of a $500,000 Bitcoin hinges on a combination of factors, including regulatory clarity, institutional investment, and macroeconomic shifts. If Trump’s policies lead to greater financial uncertainty or currency devaluation, Bitcoin could benefit as investors seek non-traditional stores of value.
As the crypto market continues to evolve, Bitcoin’s ability to weather volatility and attract mainstream adoption will be critical in determining whether it can reach—and sustain—these ambitious price targets.
Texas Moves Forward With Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Bill, Setting Precedent for US States
In related news, the Texas Senate Banking Committee unanimously approved Senate Bill 21 (SB-21), which proposes the establishment of a Bitcoin and cryptocurrency strategic reserve. The 9–0 vote on Feb. 27 clears the path for the bill to advance to the Texas Senate floor for further deliberation, where it could become one of the most significant state-level cryptocurrency policies in the US.
If passed, the bill would authorize the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts to acquire, sell, and trade digital assets as part of the state’s financial reserves. Advocates argue that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies offer a hedge against inflation and economic volatility, providing Texans with enhanced financial security.
The passage of SB-21 in the committee follows growing interest among US states in adopting Bitcoin as a financial safeguard. Oklahoma, Arizona, and Utah are also considering similar legislation to diversify their state reserves, reflecting broader concerns over the declining purchasing power of the US dollar and rising inflation.
The bill originally focused exclusively on Bitcoin when it was first introduced by Texas State Senator Charles Schwertner in January 2025. However, following US President Donald Trump’s executive order on Jan. 23, which directed a commission to study the feasibility of a "digital asset stockpile," the bill was revised to include other digital assets in February.
This shift aligns with Trump’s broader crypto-friendly stance, reinforcing his administration’s push to integrate digital assets into state and national economic strategies.
While the move has been widely celebrated among Bitcoin supporters, some analysts remain cautious. Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at crypto platform Nexo, noted that the Feb. 18 public hearing for SB-21 was more symbolic than an immediate Bitcoin adoption or price catalyst.
However, Pierre Rochard, vice president of research at Riot Platforms, a major Bitcoin mining company, provided testimony in support of the bill. He highlighted that while Texas currently enjoys a strong economy, it must prepare for future economic downturns and fiscal uncertainty.
"Public trust in financial institutions has eroded due to a lack of transparency, but Bitcoin is unique because it is fully auditable," Rochard emphasized.
His testimony echoed growing concerns that traditional financial systems are becoming increasingly fragile, with government overspending, debt accumulation, and inflation threatening long-term economic stability.
Texas: A Crypto and Bitcoin Mining Hub
Texas has long been a pro-crypto state, hosting some of the largest Bitcoin mining operations in the US due to its low electricity costs and deregulated energy market. The state has also enacted pro-mining legislation and has positioned itself as a leader in blockchain innovation.
The introduction of a Bitcoin-backed reserve fund would further cement Texas’ status as a Bitcoin-friendly jurisdiction, potentially attracting even more investment and crypto businesses.
However, challenges remain. If passed, the bill would require Texas to develop a framework for securely managing digital assets, including issues related to custody, price volatility, and regulatory oversight.
Texas’ move to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve could set a precedent for other US states to follow. If successful, it may lead to wider state-level Bitcoin adoption and force federal regulators to reassess their stance on Bitcoin and crypto-backed reserves.
The potential expansion of state-level Bitcoin adoption also signals a shift in how policymakers view digital assets—not just as speculative investments but as legitimate financial instruments capable of hedging against inflation and financial instability.
If Bitcoin is increasingly recognized as a strategic reserve asset, it could pave the way for broader government adoption, including federal reserves or even sovereign Bitcoin holdings in the future.
The unanimous approval of SB-21 by the Texas Senate Banking Committee is a historic milestone in Bitcoin's integration into traditional financial systems. While some analysts remain skeptical about its immediate impact, the bill represents a growing recognition of Bitcoin’s role in financial security.
With Trump’s executive order pushing for further digital asset integration, Texas may be at the forefront of a new era of Bitcoin adoption at the state level. If passed into law, SB-21 could mark the beginning of Bitcoin’s formal role in state financial reserves, setting the stage for broader institutional and governmental acceptance in the years ahead.
