Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart went through the filings for spot crypto ETFs to weigh the approval odds for each cryptocurrency in the list. The strongest candidate for the next string of ETF approvals is, apparently, Litecoin—the experts note its favorable regulatory standing, which CFTC cleared out in its KuCoin lawsuit. The commodity status distinguishes the fork of Bitcoin (often referred to as the "silver" to Bitcoin's “gold”) from assets that could be potentially considered unregistered securities.
Meanwhile, much to the dismay of its ironclad fanbase, XRP has the lowest chance (65%) of approval, according to analysts, trailing behind Litecoin (90%), Dogecoin (75%), and Solana (70%). Balchunas noted that for their predictions, they only considered ETF filings structured similarly to BlackRock’s Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which operates under the '33 Act framework. However, should the SEC greenlight the initial applications, the alternative ETF formats—such as those based on futures contracts or Cayman Islands subsidiaries regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940—could also have a path to approval.
“Keep in mind all of this stuff (except Litecoin which was always high) was <5% prior to election. So these are really good odds relatively speaking, and will likely grow the more we see these go through the typical process,” the analyst added.
True to their name, some members of XRPArmy chimed in to defend their favorite coin against FUD, arguing against the “NO” put for XRP under the header “Does SEC currently view as commodity?”. A Twitter/X user @OnChainMayo pointed out that while the SEC appealed the decision in favor of Ripple, it didn’t contest the XRP status as a commodity.
In response, Seyffart clarified that until all litigation between SEC and Ripple is settled, the prospect of XRP ETF will remain a far-off goal. Although the 19b-4 filings for DOGE and XRP will likely be acknowledged already this week, any meaningful development would have to wait until the end of 2025, when the SEC and Commissioner Heaster Peirce's Crypto task force are expected to start clearing the backlog of security vs commodity lawsuits left by previous leadership.
On Monday, NASDAQ formally filed 19b-4 forms for Coinshares’ XRP and Litecoin ETFs, following the same filing from Cboe last week for spot XRP exchange-traded funds managed by WisdomTree, Bitwise, 21Shares, and Canary.
For a crypto ETF to launch in the US, two key approvals are typically required: S-1 and 19b-4. The S-1 is a registration statement filed by the ETF issuer to register the fund with the SEC, while the 19b-4 is submitted by the exchange seeking permission to list and trade the product.
Once the 19b-4 is submitted, the SEC must formally acknowledge the filing and publish it in the Federal Register. This marks the start of a public comment period, during which industry stakeholders and the public can provide feedback. After the comment period, the SEC has up to 240 days to review the application and decide whether to approve or reject it.
