While bullish sentiments persist from some key industry figures, altcoins continue to struggle. Most altcoins are also projected to experience a downtrend through early 2025. Bitcoin is also still volatile, but analysts predict possible short squeezes and upward moves in Q1 of 2025. Meanwhile, Bitwise's 2025 predictions were revealed earlier today, and suggest that Bitcoin could surpass $200,000. Bitwise also thinks it is possible for Ethereum to reach $7,000 next year, while the stablecoin market could expand to $400 billion.
Ethereum's Path to $5000 Faces Uncertainty
Ethereum's potential to reach the very anticipated $5,000 milestone by the end of 2024 seems very slim, according to data from on-chain options protocol Derive. Despite decent inflows into spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which hint at a looming “supply-side crisis,” the likelihood of ETH hitting the target dropped significantly.
Sean Dawson, Derive’s head of research, revealed in a Dec. 10 market report that the probability of ETH reaching $5,000 by Dec. 27 peaked at 16% but has since declined to just over 8%. CoinMarketCap data shows ETH will need a 37% surge from its current price to achieve this target.
ETH’s probability of hitting $5K before the end of 2024 (Source: Derive)
However, not everyone shares this cautious outlook. Pseudonymous crypto trader CoinMamba shared in a Dec. 10 post on X that they are still optimistic that ETH could hit $5,000 by year-end.
Adding to the bullish sentiment, Ethereum contributor Eric Conner pointed out the $305 million in daily inflows into Ether ETFs on Dec. 10, and believes this is evidence of an impending supply shortage. Ethereum educator Anthony Sassano agreed with this, and shared that traditional finance institutions are “gobbling up the cheap ETH.” The Fidelity Ethereum Fund accounted for $202.2 million of these inflows, according to data from Farside.
The conversation around Ethereum’s price potential also drew some attention from more well known voices in the crypto community. Bankless podcast host Ryan Adams suggested on Dec. 9 that ETH could hit a new all-time high within a week. The current ETH high was set in November of 2021, and stands at $4,878.
Meanwhile, crypto trader Pentoshi shared ETH's structural changes in a Dec. 9 post. They also revealed that ETH recently achieved its highest weekly close of the year and predicted that a retest of its all-time high could happen sooner than expected.
Overall, the outlook for ETH is uncertain. While bullish traders foresee a potential breakout, the data-driven perspective suggests a more tempered trajectory for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.
Altcoins Face Prolonged Downtrend
Not just Ethereum, but the altcoin market in general appears to be facing continued downward pressure. In fact, the majority of tokens will very likely remain in a downtrend until the end of January of 2025, according to Felix Hartmann, the founder of Hartmann Capital.
In a Dec. 10 X post, Hartmann stated that while some altcoins might experience brief upward movements, the overall trend for most will involve slow bleeding or consolidation over the next two to six weeks. Hartmann advised traders against chasing recent altcoin gains, as many already peaked after dramatic 2–3x surges in a week.
Despite the bearish outlook for altcoins, Hartmann is still cautiously optimistic about the broader market. He suggested that it might be a reasonable time to reintroduce a long bias, as waiting for further ideal levels might result in missed opportunities. His comments were made after a huge decline in the altcoin market, which saw approximately $481.6 million in long positions liquidated over 24 hours, according to data from CoinGlass.
Crypto trader Mister Crypto suggested that the latest market dip could be the “final shakeout” before exponential breakouts. Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, some of the largest declines hit tokens like Ethena (ENA), Pepe (PEPE), and Bonk (BONK) , according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin also saw some heightened volatility. At press time, BTC was trading hands at $97,996.69 after its price managed a slight 0.65% climb over the past 24 hours. The crypto has also stayed below the $100,000 psychological threshold since Dec. 9, despite reaching six figures for the first time on Dec. 5.
Hartmann believes that Bitcoin has a “fair chance” of retesting $99,000, mainly due to the potential for short squeezes. If Bitcoin were to climb the 2+% above the $99,000 level, around $1.53 billion in short positions could face liquidation.
Market participants are, however, still divided on the path forward. CryptoSea co-founder Daan de Rover hinted that major developments could be around the corner for the Bitcoin market, and stated, “We all know what’s next.” Meanwhile, Daan Crypto Trades pointed out Bitcoin’s historical patterns of moving 30–50% after long periods of consolidation. He suggested that the next consolidation phase could be shorter than usual, and could also set the stage for a new upward leg in Q1.
For now, it seems like traders adopted a short-term mindset during this cycle, according to Syncracy Capital co-founder Daniel Cheung. Crypto analysis firm Santiment also warned that retail traders reacting fearfully and selling off their crypto too quickly could paradoxically trigger a sharp recovery.
Bitwise Reveals Its Crypto Predictions for 2025
Bitwise released its 2025 crypto predictions, and projected some groundbreaking milestones for Bitcoin, tokenized assets, and regulatory advancements. The report forecasts that Bitcoin’s price could surpass $200,000 in 2025, and even has the potential to exceed $500,000 if the U.S. government establishes a strategic reserve of 1 million Bitcoins. Ethereum and Solana are also expected to see impressive growth, with projections of Ethereum reaching $7,000 and Solana (SOL) climbing to $750.
As the market matures, Bitcoin ETFs are expected to experience record-breaking inflows, surpassing even the high 2024 levels. These inflows will likely be driven by increased regulatory clarity and institutional interest.
Sovereign adoption of Bitcoin is also expected to rise, with the number of countries holding the cryptocurrency predicted to double. The report suggests that the U.S.’s consideration of a strategic Bitcoin reserve could spark a global race among governments to accumulate Bitcoin before scarcity drives prices even higher.
In the broader industry, Bitwise projects that Coinbase’s stock will soar above $700 per share, fueled by widespread crypto adoption and its growing dominance in the market. The company is expected to surpass Charles Schwab as the most valuable brokerage and join the S&P 500. MicroStrategy is also predicted to enter the Nasdaq-100 by 2025. Bitwise anticipates at least five crypto unicorns going public in the U.S. as well, and named Circle, Figure, Kraken, Anchorage, and Chainalysis as top IPO candidates.
The stablecoin market is expected to expand a lot, too, and could reach $400 billion in assets, supported by anticipated U.S. legislation offering a clearer regulatory framework. Looking further ahead, Bitwise predicts Bitcoin will surpass gold’s $18 trillion market cap by 2029, trading above $1 million per coin.
