Analysts are divided on Bitcoin’s price outlook, with some predicting a final dip before further gains, while others consider the rising open interest in Bitcoin as a more bullish signal. Meanwhile, Italy is considering a Bitcoin capital gains tax hike from 26% to 42% as part of its 2025 budget plan.
Stacked Unveils Bitcoin and Gold ETF
Stacked, which is also known as STKD, introduced a new exchange-traded fund (ETF) that provides leveraged exposure to both Bitcoin (BTC) and gold. This move was made as investors increasingly focus on assets that are considered as protection against inflation and currency debasement ahead of the upcoming United States presidential elections in November.
The STKD Bitcoin & Gold ETF (BTGD) will offer investors the chance to invest in two scarcity assets, Bitcoin and gold, and its main goal is to help safeguard against future inflation. For every dollar invested in the fund, it gives $1 of exposure to BTC and $1 to a portfolio of gold through a combination of ETFs and futures tied to the prices of these assets.
(Source: JP Morgan)
Futures contracts are standardized agreements to buy or sell an asset at a future date, and are a central part of the ETF's structure. According to JPMorgan, geopolitical tensions and the upcoming US election are very likely to boost demand for both Bitcoin and gold as investors brace for a potential "catastrophic scenario." The bank’s report revealed that rising geopolitical uncertainty since 2022, concerns about long-term inflation, and persistently high government deficits are fueling the so-called “debasement trade,” which traditionally favors gold and, more recently, Bitcoin.
STKD addressed the ongoing debate between Bitcoin and gold, and shared that focusing on the two as competing assets misses the bigger picture completely. Instead, both can play important roles for investors who are looking for a mix of capital appreciation and portfolio hedging.
This launch also adds to a growing number of crypto-related ETFs being proposed ahead of the US elections. Canary Capital has plans to launch a XRP and Litecoin ETF, and Bitwise is also exploring an XRP ETF.
Leveraged ETFs gained some traction as well, with MicroStrategy-related ETFs crossing $400 million in net assets. However, leveraged ETFs carry higher risks and usually underperform because of the costs that are associated with daily rebalancing to maintain their leveraged targets.
Analysts Split on Bitcoin’s Path
Bitcoin’s recent move beyond the $68,000 mark fueled optimism among traders, and some believe it could lead to a retest of its all-time high. However, not all analysts are completely convinced that this rally will be as straightforward as most people think.
Hyblock Capital CEO Shubh Varma said in an Oct. 16 report, that a final dip may occur before the market takes another leg up. He pointed to data from Binance showing that less than 40% of retail traders are holding long positions, which could indicate a potential reversal. Varma also warned that if large amounts of retail traders start to go long, it might be a bearish signal.
Varma went on to point out that Bitcoin's open interest (OI) reached its historical resistance level, which could signal the potential for a corrective move to flush out long positions. On Oct. 16, Bitcoin’s OI hit a new year-to-date high of $39.36 billion, surpassing the previous peak of $38.8 billion that was set in April, according to CoinGlass data. A price dip followed by a decline in OI could confirm this correction.
Exchange BTC Futures Open Interest (Source: Coinglass)
Despite this, some analysts still believe the rise in open interest could actually signal a bullish trend. Crypto investor Lark Davis argued that the spike in OI suggests an influx of attention and liquidity entering the crypto market, which often precedes positive price movements.
Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x Research, suggested on Aug. 7 that Bitcoin falling into the low $40,000 range could present an ideal buying opportunity for those who are looking to time the next bull market. While some analysts are optimistic, the future direction of Bitcoin is still very uncertain.
Bitcoin is "in the Window"
Veteran commodities trader Peter L. Brandt recently took to social media to share an important message with the global crypto community about Bitcoin. Brandt often comments on various cryptos including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, but recently reiterated his belief in Bitcoin's potential. Despite his preference for Bitcoin, Brandt has also traded Ethereum when he saw profitable opportunities, though it is not his preferred asset.
In his latest post, Brandt revisited a Bitcoin chart that he had originally shared on Oct. 15, stating that the price is “in the window.” He explained that Bitcoin’s current position could lead to either a breakout, where the asset "escapes through the window," or a decline, with "the window slammed on its head," implying a potential drop in price.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price managed a small 0.74% price increase for it to trade hands at $67,584.60 at press time, according to CoinMarketCap. Since Sunday, Bitcoin has risen by more than 10%.
Bitcoin’s 7d price chart (Source: CoinMarketCap)
Italian Government Proposes Bitcoin Tax Hike
The Italian government is considering raising the capital gains tax on Bitcoin investments from 26% to 42%, according to Deputy Economy Minister Maurizio Leo. He spoke at a news conference on Oct. 16, and explained that this proposal is part of the new budget bill, which has already been approved by the Council of Ministers. The increase in the withholding tax on Bitcoin capital gains is one of the bigger changes that is included in the bill.
Additionally, Italy plans to remove the minimum revenue threshold for its Digital Services Tax (DST), which currently applies to companies with at least 750 million euros in global revenue and 5.5 million euros in digital services revenue in Italy. By eliminating these thresholds, the government wants to expand the scope of the tax to more businesses operating digital services in the country.
Maurizio Leo speaking at the news conference (Source: YouTube)
The government also approved a 30 billion euro budget for 2025, which will partly be funded by a levy on banks and insurers. This budget is still pending parliamentary approval, and is expected to raise 3.5 billion euros to improve public services and help vulnerable citizens. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni stated that there will be no new taxes for individuals, with the additional revenue being directed toward healthcare and essential services.
Italy previously raised the capital gains tax on crypto trading over 2,000 euros to 26% as part of the 2023 budget.
