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Cole Garner predicted that Bitcoin could dip below $50,000 before resuming a bullish trend, while Peter Brandt predicted BTC could reach $135,000 by 2025. Additionally, the anticipated launch of Bitcoin ETF options by 2025 could also boost market growth. Despite the uncertainties about the crypto market’s next move, retail interest in crypto assets is still strong, and crypto ownership among younger investors surged.
Bitcoin Faces Potential Dip Before Bull Market
Bitcoin’s price action could hit a big dip before resuming a bullish trend, according to the latest analysis from Cole Garner. In a post that was shared on X on Oct. 10, Garner hinted that Bitcoin markets might face "capitulation" in the near term, and suggested that long-term range lows could be revisited before the onset of a full bull market.
Garner's analysis specifically pointed towards tightening on-chain liquidity as a key factor in the short-term decline of BTC's price. He noted that global liquidity trends are still favorable for Bitcoin in the long term, but near-term developments may shock traders.
According to Garner, the current liquidity decline could lead to Bitcoin revisiting range lows, and the crypto king’s charts indicate a potential dip below $50,000. He believes this will create a “full bull” setup, as liquidity is likely to surge once central banks take action.
Garner's analysis also mentioned declining supplies of major stablecoins like Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), which also supports his argument for short-term downward pressure on BTC. Despite the potential for a dip, he still has an overall bullish outlook as the market structure remains positive with a higher high already in place.
Bitcoin 7d price chart (Source: CoinMarketCap)
While Bitcoin is currently trading around $61,000, some people are still hopeful for a strong finish to October, especially if China’s recent economic stimulus plans are revised to attract more capital inflows.
Bitcoin Could Targe $135K by 2025, But There is a Catch…
Bitcoin could reach $135,000 in the next year, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt, but a 25% price drop could threaten this forecast. In an update on X, Brandt shared his outlook for Bitcoin through 2025, and predicted that the crypto’s strongest gains are still to come as it progresses through its four-year halving cycle.
According to Brandt, the last half of this cycle typically delivers the largest price increases. He now believes Bitcoin could hit his $135,000 target by August or September of 2025, which he called a conservative estimate. However, there is still something very important to consider. If Bitcoin’s price falls below $48,000, the outlook could be completely changed.
Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, is cautiously optimistic about Brandt's prediction as it aligns with his own expectations for a target between $125,000 and $130,000, although he was unsure about the precise timing.
Other analysts are also bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, and 2025 is widely regarded as the next potential macro top. While predictions for Bitcoin's all-time high vary, one recent model even suggests that BTC could hit $275,000 per coin by the end of next year. In August, popular analyst CryptoCon also pointed to 2025 as a key year for Bitcoin, though he found this year’s rally to $73,800 somewhat confusing.
Despite the fact that there are so many optimistic projections for Bitcoin’s next move, new highs in September did not materialize even though BTC saw uncharacteristically high returns during the historically problematic month.
Bitcoin monthly returns (Source: Cloinglass)
Bitcoin Options Could Also Spark Market Growth by 2025
Bitcoin’s price could also receive a nice boost as options on Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are expected to launch in the United States by the first quarter of 2025, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s ETF analyst James Seyffart. He spoke at the Permissionless conference on Oct. 9, and suggested that options might launch by the end of this year but are more likely to come in early 2025.
James Seyffart speaking at Permissionless (Source: X)
Seyffart made his prediction after the US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) approval for Nasdaq to list options tied to BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust. However, the final approval is still pending from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC), which could delay the process a bit more as these agencies do not operate under strict deadlines like the SEC.
Jeff Park, the head of alpha strategies at Bitwise Invest, described the introduction of regulated Bitcoin options as a monumental step forward for crypto markets. He believes that the protection provided by the OCC will encourage more people to participate in the market as it reduces concerns over default risks.
Financial advisers very often use options to mitigate market volatility. According to a 2023 survey by The Journal of Financial Planning, more than 10% of advisers actively used options in their clients’ portfolios. Seyffart also pointed out that options could help advisers become a lot more comfortable with Bitcoin, particularly by managing the asset's volatility.
What are Options?
Options are financial instruments tied to the value of underlying assets like stocks, indexes, and ETFs. An options contract provides the buyer with the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price. This differs from futures contracts, where the holder has to complete the transaction. The ability to choose whether or not to exercise the option adds a lot of flexibility for investors.
Each options contract comes with an expiration date by which the buyer has to decide whether to exercise their right. The price at which the transaction can occur, which is known as the strike price, is a key aspect of the contract. Options are commonly traded through online or retail brokers and are used in a variety of strategies, making them versatile tools in financial markets.
There are two types of options: call options and put options. Call options give the buyer the right to purchase the underlying asset at the strike price in a specific time period, while put options allow the buyer to sell the asset at a stated price. In the case of call options, the buyer is typically bullish on the asset's future price, while the seller is bearish. For put options, the buyer anticipates a price decline, and the seller is more optimistic about the asset’s stability or future increase.
Retail Crypto Ownership Surges
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the crypto market’s next move, crypto ownership among retail investors has surged since 2020, according to a report by the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO). The report found that up to 30% of retail investors in some regions owned crypto assets in 2022. This is a big jump from just 1% to 5% that was estimated to hold crypto in 2020.
Crypto ownership increase (Source: IOSCO)
Despite the market volatility during the 2022 crypto winter, and the downturns that followed, retail interest in crypto assets is still high across both advanced economies and emerging markets.
The IOSCO report also pointed out a number of ongoing concerns in the crypto market, including volatility, limited understanding among investors, lack of regulation, and the risks of scams and fraud. These concerns mirror those from a previous report in 2020, but have intensified due to high-profile failures, bankruptcies, a prolonged bear market, and a surge in scams over the past four years.
Despite this, retail investors, and particularly younger males under the age of 40, still seem to be drawn to crypto assets. In the United States, almost three in five investors under 35 years old considered investing in crypto, and over half had already done so.
Gen Z investors, especially those aged 18 to 25, are also increasingly starting their investment journeys with crypto. The report also revealed that newer investors are more inclined to enter the crypto market compared to established investors. This is mostly due to the fear of missing out (FOMO), speculative gains, low costs of entry, and recommendations from friends or social media.
