Peter Brandt predicts a 400% rise in the BTC/GLD ratio by 2025, while other analysts like Titan of Crypto believe it is very possible for Bitcoin to reach $85,000 by the end of 2024. However, Jeff Part recently talked about his concerns with regards to Bitcoin’s volatility. Meanwhile, Coinbase clarified terms around its wrapped Bitcoin product, cbBTC, after concerns were voiced about user protections.
Bitcoin Could Outpace Gold
Bitcoin’s market capitalization has surged by an eye watering amount since its inception, and compared to its traditional safe-haven rival, gold. Recent indicators suggest that Bitcoin may be on the verge of yet another extended price rally, which could signal some renewed momentum against the precious metal.
One key metric to watch is the BTC/GLD ratio, which tracks the performance of Bitcoin against gold. According to veteran market analyst Peter Brandt, this ratio could climb by over 400% in 2025.
Brandt bases his prediction on a classic inverse head-and-shoulders (IH&S) technical pattern, which is considered a very strong bullish signal. This pattern forms when a price chart creates three consecutive troughs, with the middle one, which is called the head, being deeper than the other two shoulders. When the price breaks above the neckline, the market typically sees a big rally. Applying this principle to the BTC/GLD ratio suggests that one Bitcoin could equal 123 ounces of gold by 2025. This is a huge increase from its current value of 24 ounces.
A lot of Bitcoin’s rapid growth has been driven by institutional adoption and the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Since January of 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows of more than $17.69 billion. Projections suggest the Bitcoin ETF market could expand to as much as $220 billion by 2027, using gold ETFs as a benchmark.
Other industry experts like Anthony Scaramucci and Anthony Pompliano also believe that Bitcoin's market cap could surpass gold in the next decade due to its scarcity and portability.
More Analysts Predict a Bitcoin Surge
Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto also believes Bitcoin is poised for an "explosive move" by the end of 2024, with a target of $85,000. In a recent post on X, he predicted a 35% gain for BTC/USD, and suggested that the momentum is building for a breakout. Bitcoin has held steady around $62,000, and analysts are increasingly optimistic about the potential for more gains.
Titan of Crypto pointed to the weekly relative strength index (RSI) as a key indicator of the building momentum. The RSI is a popular tool that is used by traders to identify potential tops and bottoms. BTC’s RSI has broken a downtrend and currently sits above the key 50/100 mark, signaling strength.
He added that if September closes with a green candle, it could set the stage for a bullish Q4. Historically, green September closes have very often been followed by strong gains in the final quarter of the year. Even if September ends in the red, previous years like 2017 and 2020 still saw bullish Q4 rallies.
Bitcoin monthly returns (Source: X)
Another popular trader called Skew believes that $61,000 is a critical level to watch. He pointed out that a series of higher highs and higher lows on daily charts will confirm Bitcoin’s strength and that holding above $61,000 will provide a clear line in the sand for the market moving forward.
The combination of these factors has led many traders to believe that Bitcoin could be in for a very promising close to the year.
Bitcoin ETF Options Won't Tame Volatility
On the other hand, not all analysts are optimistic about BTC’s future. Jeff Park, the head of alpha strategies at Bitwise Asset Management, believes that Bitcoin ETF options will not reduce the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency. He explains that while traditional money balances price and quantity, Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million coins means holders have to accept price volatility.
It was a big development when the SEC approved options trading for BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). Park even described the move as a monumental advancement for the crypto market.
This was the first instance of regulated leverage being applied to a perpetual supply-constrained commodity like Bitcoin. The approval allows synthetic notional exposure to grow exponentially, which improves the utility of ETFs and makes it possible for options traders to capture more delta while paying the same premium, giving them more value for their trades.
Park shared that Bitcoin’s implied volatility rises with its spot price because of its negative Vanna, meaning that a gamma squeeze could result in a sharp price rally. Contrary to the views of on-chain analyst Willy Woo, who argues that synthetic exposure has removed the supply constraint and allowed dollar holders to sell Bitcoin, Park believes that options do not create fake supply. Instead, they help Bitcoin reach its neutral price faster, which he believes is higher.
Coinbase Clarifies cbBTC Terms
In other Bitcoin news, Coinbase’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, recently addressed some concerns surrounding the terms of service for Coinbase’s newly launched wrapped Bitcoin product, cbBTC. He confirmed that Coinbase will fully reimburse clients in the event that the underlying Bitcoin is lost.
This clarification came after users voiced worries about a clause suggesting that Coinbase will only provide a proportional share of any remaining Bitcoin in case of a loss due to malicious activity or unforeseen events.
In response to these concerns, Grewal stated that the policy limits Coinbase’s liability with regards to external losses from complex trades and leveraged positions. For example, if a trader uses cbBTC as collateral for a loan and loses Bitcoin because of malicious activity, Coinbase will reimburse the Bitcoin loss but not cover fees or monetary losses from the loan liquidation.
Coinbase launched cbBTC on Sept. 12. It allows residents in the UK, Australia, Singapore, and most US states to access a tokenized version of Bitcoin.
The launch happened amid controversy surrounding BitGo's Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) and concerns about Tron founder Justin Sun’s involvement in that project. Despite many reassurances from BitGo that Sun would not have control over the funds, the crypto community is still very cautious.
As a result of this, the Sky community voted to drop WBTC from its platform. Coinbase’s cbBTC quickly gained traction, and became the third-largest wrapped Bitcoin token within a week of its launch.
