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Bitcoin exchange inflows have declined since early August, despite the initial concerns about potential sell-offs from Mt.Gox and the U.S. government. Large transfers of BTC to exchanges happened in early August, but inflows have since decreased, suggesting reduced selling pressure. Meanwhile, some people like Michael Saylor are still bullish on Bitcoin, while others, including Peter Brandt, warn of potential delays in reaching a new all-time high.
Bitcoin Exchange Inflows Plummet
Bitcoin (BTC) exchange inflows have declined a lot since early August, despite concerns about potential sell-offs from the Mt. Gox bankruptcy estate and the United States government. According to data from CryptoQuant, large transfers happened in early August.
Almost 94,000 BTC was sent to exchanges on Aug. 4, followed by 49,000 BTC on Aug. 5, and around 51,000 BTC on Aug. 6. However, inflows started to trend downward throughout the month, and only 31,000 BTC was sent to exchanges on Aug. 20, suggesting a reduction in selling pressure.
Bitcoin exchange inflow (Source: CryptoQuant)
A key factor that did contribute to some market anxiety about selling pressure was the movement of 12,000 BTC by Mt. Gox on Aug. 20. This was the first time in over three weeks that the defunct exchange shifted funds, and it moved the equivalent of $709 million to unknown wallets.
While Mt. Gox wallets still hold approximately 44,899 BTC, which is valued at $2.7 billion, analysts have been closely monitoring the situation, and speculating on the potential market impact of a mass sell-off by Mt. Gox creditors. However, recent data suggests that creditors are actually holding onto their assets, and a widespread sell-off has not materialized just yet.
Rumors of a US government sell-off also surfaced after the transfer of 10,000 BTC to an unmarked wallet on Aug. 14. This very high-profile transfer led to speculation about a possible liquidation. However, some analysts, including Bitget Research's chief analyst Ryan Lee, believe that the transfer could be related to custody rather than an imminent sale.
Overall, the reduction in exchange inflows and the lack of any major sell-offs from both Mt. Gox creditors and the US government have helped ease some concerns about increased selling pressure in the Bitcoin market.
Saylor Calls Bitcoin "The Answer"
It seems like some big shots in the crypto space are also a bit more bullish on Bitcoin at the moment. Michael Saylor, who is known for being a Bitcoin supporter and the cofounder of MicroStrategy, recently shared a very philosophical message about Bitcoin with his millions of followers on X. Saylor shared the message after BTC’s price was able to climb above the $61K mark over the past 24 hours.
Saylor reacted to Bitcoin's recovery by stating, "If Bitcoin isn’t the answer, you’re asking the wrong question."
Over the past few days of trading, BTC was able to reclaim the $61,000 level twice, but the price of the crypto king has been pushed down slightly by bears since then. The first surge happened between Wednesday and Thursday, when Bitcoin rose from $59,374 to $61,830, before dropping back to $60,174. A second price increase followed when Bitcoin reached the $61,300 zone. However, the cryptocurrency is currently trading at $60,644.42, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin 7d chart (Source: CoinMarketCap)
Peter Brandt Warns of Possible Bitcoin ATH Delay
Veteran commodities trader Peter Brandt recently shared his own thoughts about Bitcoin in an X post, and speculated on the possibility of the crypto reaching a new all-time high (ATH). According to Brandt, the current bull market cycle might become the longest period post-halving in Bitcoin's history before reaching a new ATH.
He referenced past cycles, and pointed out that the 2015-2017 bull market took 24 weeks to achieve a new high, while the 2018-2021 cycle took 25 weeks. The current cycle, spanning from 2022-2025, has already lasted 23 weeks. This suggests that it may take even longer for Bitcoin to hit a new peak. Brandt also warned that it is possible a new ATH may not even happen at all in this cycle.
Responses to his tweet were mixed. Some agreed that the ATH might be delayed, while others pointed out that Bitcoin already reached a new high of $73,750 on Mar. 14, ahead of the halving that took place on April 20. This breaks the pattern of previous cycles where ATHs were typically reached post-halving.
Bitcoin Faces Potential Downturn
Brandt is not alone in his opinion that BTC’s price may not see a net ATH very soon. Since November of 2022, Bitcoin's price surged by close to 300% from lows around $15,470, but this strong uptrend is now facing some challenges. Technical analysis from Fairlead Strategies indicates a potential "stochastics overbought downturn" signal, which could indicate the beginning of a price decline.
The stochastics oscillator is a momentum indicator that is used to compare a security's market rate to its range of prices over a certain period. Bitcoin's 14-month stochastic crossed below 80. If this trend persists through the end of August, it could confirm the downturn and signal a weakening of the uptrend.
Bitcoin’s Ichimoku cloud, stochastics, and MACD (Source: Fairlead Strategies)
Fairlead Strategies analysts pointed out that this potential downturn, if confirmed, could suggest that the recent trading range might have marked the end of Bitcoin's cyclical uptrend from the 2022 low. Since March, Bitcoin's uptrend has stalled, and bulls have been unable to break through the $70,000 resistance level on the monthly chart.
In addition to the stochastics signal, other indicators like the MACD histogram and the Ichimoku cloud are showing signs of a challenging environment ahead. The MACD histogram measures trend strength, and is displaying shallower bars, while the Ichimoku cloud, another momentum indicator, appears flat.
These signs could suggest that Bitcoin may face some difficulties in maintaining its current upward momentum.
Dormant Bitcoin Wallet Awakens After 10.8 Years
Meanwhile, a Bitcoin address that has been dormant for 10.8 years suddenly became active. According to on-chain data tracker Whale Alert, the address, which holds 142 BTC that is valued at $8,457,465, was last active in 2013 when the Bitcoin was worth just $78,150. This means that the BTC saw an eye watering 11,454% increase in value.
Dormant addresses are typically associated with early Bitcoin adopters or miners, and their reactivation often leads to speculation about the owner's next intentions. While the identity of the address owner is still unknown, there are several possible reasons for the sudden activity.
It is very likely that the owner may be looking to cash in on the huge profit that accumulated over the years. Alternatively, they might be moving the funds to a more secure wallet or it could be a case of a long-lost wallet being rediscovered.
