Key takeaways
- OPEC+ production rebounds to 97% of prewar levels
- Saudi Arabia drives October's two-million-barrel supply increase
- Brent falls below $93 despite persistent Hormuz disruptions
Oil prices declined on November 12 as OPEC+ crude production recovered to nearly prewar levels, easing concerns about global supply shortages despite continuing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures traded around $92.39 per barrel, down 0.4%, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 0.43% to $86.16.
According to OPEC's November Monthly Oil Market Report, the producer alliance pumped approximately 41.23 million barrels per day in October, an increase of 2.04 million from September. That represents roughly 97% of February's prewar production of 42.72 million barrels daily.
The recovery follows an earlier period when Gulf oil exports had reached only 81% of their prewar volumes, highlighting how quickly regional supply conditions have changed.
Saudi Arabia Drives OPEC+ Production Recovery
Saudi Arabia accounted for much of October's production rebound, reporting output of 10.563 million barrels per day, compared with 8.372 million in September.
The increase of approximately 2.19 million barrels daily represents a 26% monthly jump and places Saudi production near February's 10.882 million-barrel level.
Russia also increased output by approximately 41,000 barrels per day to 8.668 million.
The recovery has occurred even though OPEC+ maintained production targets for December, reflecting the distinction between production quotas and actual barrels reaching the market.
The alliance's improving output has added downward pressure to crude prices, reinforcing earlier analysis explaining why oil can fall even without an increase in official production targets.
Why Are Oil Prices Falling Despite the Iran Conflict?
The production rebound has coincided with growing expectations that diplomatic negotiations could reduce tensions involving Iran and Russia.
However, physical oil transportation remains vulnerable to attacks and interruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Previous Hormuz shipping disruptions demonstrated that recovering oil flows do not necessarily mean maritime security has normalized.
Gulf producers have increasingly relied on alternative pipelines, tanker transfers and modified shipping routes to restore exports.
These arrangements can support production and deliveries but often increase transportation costs, limiting the financial benefits of the recovery.
Crucially, the 97% figure measures OPEC+ crude production, not the proportion of shipping traffic restored through Hormuz.
Could Brent Crude Fall Below $90 Again?
Brent remains substantially below its late-October highs after a sharp correction linked to easing geopolitical fears.
Earlier this week, oil prices briefly dropped below $90, extending the retreat from the October peak near $118.
However, the latest production figures complicate the outlook presented by the EIA's November forecast, which anticipates Brent averaging $104 in November and $99 in December.
Those projections reflect continuing supply disruptions and low inventories, although the agency finalized its assumptions before the latest acceleration in oil's decline.
