Key takeaways
- EIA expects Brent near $100 through December
- Oil futures remain sharply below October highs
- Shipping disruptions and low inventories support prices
Oil prices could remain close to $100 per barrel through the end of 2026 despite Brent's dramatic November selloff, according to the latest forecast from the US Energy Information Administration.
In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, released November 10, the EIA projected Brent crude would average $104 per barrel in November and $99 in December, citing persistent Middle Eastern supply disruptions and unusually low global inventories.
The forecast contrasts with the recent 23% oil price collapse, which pushed Brent below $90 on Tuesday.
Brent futures subsequently rebounded to approximately $92.81 on November 11, remaining roughly 21% below their October 30 peak near $118.
EIA Forecasts $104 Brent Despite November Oil Crash
The EIA expects oil prices to remain elevated because production disruptions and shipping bottlenecks continue restricting supplies.
Its November outlook shows Brent averaging $97 per barrel across 2026 before declining to $86 in 2027.
However, the agency expects prices to fall further toward $77 during the fourth quarter of 2027 as Middle Eastern production recovers and inventories rebuild.
One important distinction is that the EIA finalized its forecast assumptions on November 5, before the latest acceleration in oil's selloff.
That timing explains some of the difference between its projections and current market prices, although the agency continues emphasizing significant supply risks.
The forecasts also differ from earlier bank estimates of oil's fundamental value, which suggested a substantial geopolitical premium was embedded in crude prices.
Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Keep Oil Supply Tight
The EIA estimates that Middle Eastern crude production disruptions averaged 2.5 million barrels per day in October, down from a peak of 10.9 million barrels per day in May.
Although that represents a significant improvement, continued tanker attacks and shipping delays have prevented the oil market from returning to normal conditions.
The agency estimated global inventories fell by 1.2 million barrels per day during the third quarter.
Meanwhile, the recovery in Strait of Hormuz oil flows has depended partly on alternative shipping routes and ship-to-ship transfers near Oman.
These arrangements have increased transportation costs and reduced the efficiency of global tanker operations.
US commercial crude inventories also finished October at 410 million barrels, their lowest end-of-October level since 2014.
That inventory weakness provides another reason the EIA expects oil prices to remain relatively elevated despite the recent correction.
Could Brent Return Above $100 Before 2027?
The immediate outlook depends heavily on developments involving Iran and the security of Middle Eastern shipping.
Brent's recent historic weekly decline followed expectations that Washington could reduce military pressure on Tehran.
However, renewed tanker attacks and uncertainty surrounding nuclear negotiations have complicated hopes for a rapid normalization of exports.
Earlier oil price forecasts warned that another escalation could drive Brent substantially higher.
Conversely, improving shipping conditions and recovering production could accelerate the decline projected for 2027.
