Key takeaways
- Brent crude falls 23% from its October peak
- Trump signals no further Iran strikes for now
- Growing oil surplus raises possibility of $80 Brent
Oil prices extended their sharp retreat on Tuesday after President Donald Trump signaled that the United States would hold off on further strikes against Iran, easing fears of a deeper supply shock in the Middle East.
According to November 10 market reporting, Brent crude fell 3.15% to $89.65 a barrel by 13:34 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined 2.68% to $84.52. Brent dropped below $90 for the first time since August 31.
The benchmark has now lost approximately 23% from its October 30 peak near $118, reversing much of the geopolitical premium that developed during the Iran oil conflict.
Why Are Oil Prices Falling Despite Middle East Supply Risks?
The immediate catalyst is Washington's changing approach toward Iran.
Trump said additional military strikes were unnecessary for now following appeals from regional leaders, including Qatar's prime minister.
Although attacks on commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz continue, investors increasingly believe that a broader escalation may be avoided.
That shift has weakened the geopolitical premium that previously supported oil prices even as concerns about the global energy market continued.
However, the decline is not driven by geopolitics alone.
JPMorgan estimated that global crude supply exceeded demand by approximately 1.4 million barrels per day in October, suggesting the market may be moving toward oversupply.
OPEC production also increased during October, led by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, adding pressure as higher energy prices weakened consumption.
Oil Price Forecast: Could Brent Fall to $80?
The breakdown below $90 has shifted attention toward the next potential downside levels.
If Brent remains below $90–$92 and oversupply concerns continue strengthening, the $85 region could become the next major psychological milestone.
A further deterioration in demand or additional easing of geopolitical tensions could eventually expose $80.
From approximately $89.65, a decline to $80 would represent another 10.8% drop.
The possibility aligns with expectations for weaker oil prices in 2027.
The US Energy Information Administration projected in its October outlook that Brent would average approximately $84 per barrel next year, assuming Middle Eastern production and exports gradually recover.
However, that forecast predates the latest developments and does not establish $80 as a guaranteed target.
Strait of Hormuz and Russian Supply Remain Major Risks
Despite the latest selloff, significant supply uncertainties remain.
Shipping disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue, and the United States has not announced a complete end to its military pressure on Iran.
Meanwhile, renewed Ukrainian drone attacks have reportedly reduced Russian refining capacity by approximately 30%, creating further uncertainty across global fuel markets.
These disruptions could limit the downside if physical supply conditions tighten again.
The wider oil market outlook therefore depends on whether increased OPEC production and weakening demand outweigh persistent geopolitical risks.
