Brent crude fell back below $100 per barrel Tuesday as Gulf oil exports continued recovering from the disruption caused by the war with Iran.
December Brent futures dropped about 2.6% to $97.73, while WTI fell to roughly $86.64. The decline followed new shipping data showing that combined crude, condensate and refined-product exports from Gulf producers excluding Iran averaged 19.2 million barrels per day in September, equivalent to more than 81% of pre-war levels.
That is a major improvement from earlier in the conflict, but the recovery is highly uneven.
Saudi Arabia Is Driving the Export Recovery
Saudi Arabia accounted for much of September’s improvement.
Its crude exports jumped by roughly 4.2 million barrels per day from August to 6.6 million bpd, helping offset weaker flows from Iran, Kuwait and Qatar. Across the Gulf, crude and condensate exports recovered to about 91% of pre-war levels.
Producers have adapted by rerouting barrels through alternative pipelines, using different terminals and relying more heavily on ship-to-ship transfers.
That adaptation has already changed the market narrative. Just days ago, oil flows were estimated at roughly 98% of pre-war crude levels despite renewed tanker attacks around Hormuz.
The improvement is also helping reverse some of the oil-price pressure that recently pushed Brent above $100 and intensified inflation concerns across global markets.
Diesel Is Still the Bigger Problem
The headline recovery masks a major weakness.
Refined-product exports are running at only about 60% of pre-war levels, according to Vortexa. That means diesel, jet fuel and other products remain considerably tighter than crude.
That helps explain why Saudi Aramco still describes global inventories as “scarily thin", even as more barrels reach international markets.
Governments are responding as well. The G7 has agreed to release 100 million barrels of emergency crude and diesel, adding another source of supply pressure on prices. The reserve release is specifically designed to ease shortages in refined products as well as crude.
