Key takeaways
- Bitcoin trades below $80,000 as bearish pressure persists
- Bitfinex analysts identify $77,000 as crucial downside support
- Fresh ETF inflows complicate the bearish outlook before Fed
Bitcoin remained below $80,000 on Tuesday, October 27, as analysts warned that another decline could expose support near $77,000, potentially extending the cryptocurrency's latest correction ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision.
BTC failed to close above its 50-day exponential moving average near $80,765 on Monday, reinforcing concerns that the former support region has become resistance. Bitcoin had already fallen toward $79,250 over the weekend after retreating from September's $87,392 high.
The weakness follows approximately $773.5 million in Bitcoin ETF withdrawals across two sessions, although fund flows improved on Monday.
Bitfinex Warns Bitcoin Could Test $77,000
In its latest Alpha report, Bitfinex analysts identified the $77,000-$77,765 region as Bitcoin's next significant support area.
The cryptocurrency has declined approximately 9.3% from its September 21 high, marking its deepest correction since July's cycle low. Meanwhile, Bitcoin futures open interest climbed to approximately 669,253 BTC on October 25 despite falling prices.
That combination suggests traders remain heavily positioned in derivatives even as the underlying market weakens, potentially amplifying volatility if leveraged positions are liquidated.
QCP Capital offered a somewhat more constructive outlook in its October 26 market commentary, identifying $78,000 support and $86,000 resistance.
Its base case anticipates Bitcoin trading within that range as investors assess technology earnings, oil prices and Federal Reserve guidance.
The outlook represents a shift from QCP's earlier $80,000-$82,000 buying zone, which has come under pressure following the latest selloff.
A sustained breakdown below $77,000 could therefore weaken both analysts' near-term recovery scenarios.
Bitcoin ETFs Return to Inflows as Fed Decision Approaches
Despite the weak price action, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $110.34 million in net inflows on October 26, according to market data cited by FXStreet.
That improvement follows the sharp withdrawals reported last week, highlighting how institutional Bitcoin demand can fluctuate even when the broader market remains under pressure.
Corporate treasury activity was similarly mixed. Strive acquired 6,182 BTC last week, while Strategy made no additional purchases during the same period.
The Federal Reserve announces its decision Wednesday, October 28, with policymakers widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
However, the possibility of tighter policy in December remains an important risk as elevated energy prices sustain inflation concerns.
Those risks previously complicated Bitcoin's recovery toward $85,000, even when ETF demand temporarily improved.
QCP also identifies earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon as potential catalysts because Bitcoin has recently moved alongside technology-sector risk appetite.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: $77K or $86K Next?
For the bearish scenario, $78,000 represents the first important support identified by QCP. Losing that level could expose Bitfinex's $77,000–$77,765 zone, while a deeper correction would bring approximately $75,000 into focus.
Peter Schiff recently identified $75,000 as a possible downside target, although that remains his forecast rather than a confirmed destination.
For bulls, reclaiming the 50-day EMA near $80,765 would be an initial improvement. Sustained buying above $81,500 could then reopen a move toward $86,000, with QCP identifying $88,000–$90,000 as a more optimistic extension.
Earlier bullish institutional forecasts, including Citi's $113,000 target, remain substantially above current prices but operate over longer investment horizons.
Similarly, Fidelity's long-term Bitcoin outlook does not eliminate the possibility of another short-term decline.
