Key takeaways
- Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer targets $300,000 Bitcoin by 2029
- Bitcoin needs stronger momentum above $86,000 resistance
- Weak ETF demand threatens the bullish recovery scenario
Bitcoin could reach $100,000 in the next phase of its recovery and potentially $300,000 by 2029, according to Fidelity Investments' director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, whose long-term valuation model suggests a new cryptocurrency bull cycle may already be underway.
The forecast has gained renewed relevance as Bitcoin recovered toward $82,000 on October 16 after briefly dropping below $80,000. At the current reference price, Timmer's intermediate target implies approximately 22% upside, while his 2029 projection represents a potential 266% advance.
Fidelity Analyst Sees Bitcoin Reaching $300,000 by 2029
Timmer outlined his bullish assessment in late September, reversing an earlier view that 2026 could be a relatively quiet year for Bitcoin.
His analysis combines a long-term power-law valuation model with Bitcoin's performance relative to gold, seeking to identify when the cryptocurrency moves between periods of undervaluation and excessive speculation.
Timmer considers Bitcoin's ability to maintain support around $60,000 earlier this year an important sign that its prolonged correction may have ended.
The model suggests Bitcoin could eventually reach $300,000 by 2029 if its historical growth trajectory continues. However, that outcome is conditional rather than a guaranteed forecast.
| Bitcoin Price Scenario | Price | Upside From $82,000 |
|---|---|---|
| Current reference | $82,000 | — |
| Intermediate objective | $100,000 | +22% |
| Long-term 2029 target | $300,000 | +266% |
| Important downside reference | $60,000 | −27% |
Bitcoin Must Reclaim $86,000 to Strengthen Bullish Outlook
Bitcoin's recent weakness has made the first part of Timmer's forecast particularly important.
The cryptocurrency briefly fell below $80,000 before recovering above $82,000, extending a volatile period marked by inflation surprises and shifting Federal Reserve expectations.
Its latest price recovery followed several sessions of selling pressure, with investors watching whether the $80,000 region can continue attracting buyers.
Timmer's technical framework identifies resistance near $86,000 as an important obstacle. A sustained move above that level could strengthen the case for a recovery toward $100,000.
Conversely, failure to hold $80,000 would weaken the near-term setup, even if it did not immediately invalidate the longer-term forecast.
The $60,000 region remains particularly important because it anchors the analyst's broader cycle interpretation.
ETF Demand and Fed Policy Could Determine Bitcoin's Next Move
Institutional investment flows remain another important variable.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $261.4 million in net withdrawals on October 14, before returning to modest inflows of $5.1 million the following session.
The latest ETF recovery suggests selling pressure has moderated, although the relatively small inflow provides limited evidence of renewed institutional accumulation.
Macroeconomic conditions also remain challenging. September's US inflation figures strengthened concerns about further interest-rate increases, while elevated Treasury yields continue competing with riskier investments.
The Federal Reserve's policy outlook has already contributed to substantial Bitcoin volatility, complicating attempts to establish a sustained recovery.
Timmer's forecast therefore presents two distinct scenarios: a possible intermediate recovery toward $100,000 and a much more ambitious multiyear advance toward $300,000.
For now, Bitcoin must demonstrate that demand is strong enough to overcome $86,000 resistance before investors can meaningfully assess the next stage of that bullish outlook.
