Key takeaways
- Bitcoin faces another $80,000 test before October's Fed decision
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs attract $526.7 million in inflows
- Economists expect a Fed pause despite persistent inflation
Bitcoin could revisit $80,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 28 interest-rate decision, even after a rebound toward $83,000 and a sharp recovery in institutional ETF demand.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted $526.7 million on October 19, according to Farside Investors, reversing an $82.4 million withdrawal recorded during the previous session. BlackRock's IBIT led with $665.2 million in inflows, partially offset by withdrawals from Fidelity and Grayscale.
The recovery followed Bitcoin's October 19 climb to approximately $82,830, a five-day high. However, the cryptocurrency remains below its early-October peak near $87,300, leaving investors focused on whether improving institutional demand can withstand another potentially restrictive Fed announcement.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Rebound $526.7 Million Before Fed Decision
The ETF recovery represents a significant shift following several weeks of uneven institutional buying.
Between October 5 and 9, Bitcoin funds recorded approximately $679 million in weekly outflows. Withdrawals subsequently reached $729 million across October 7–8 alone, with BlackRock and Fidelity among the leading contributors.
The latest $526.7 million inflow offsets a substantial portion of that selling, but one positive session does not establish a sustained demand recovery.
Bitcoin's earlier October decline also coincided with rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and a broader reduction in risk exposure.
More recently, a liquidation wave pushed Bitcoin below $82,000, demonstrating how leveraged positions can amplify relatively modest price movements.
Fed Expected to Hold Rates as December Hike Looms
The Federal Reserve will announce its next policy decision on October 28, following a two-day meeting.
A Reuters survey of 100 economists published October 20 found that 94 expect rates to remain unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%. However, economists surveyed anticipate another quarter-point increase in December.
Persistent inflation explains the uncertainty.
US consumer prices rose 3.7% annually in September, up from 3.4% in August. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5%, increasing the appeal of interest-bearing assets relative to speculative investments.
Bitcoin benefited when expectations of an immediate hike diminished, but its latest rebound has not eliminated the macroeconomic pressures that drove previous declines.
Even if policymakers leave rates unchanged, commentary suggesting additional tightening in December could influence bond yields and cryptocurrency valuations.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: $80K Support or $85K Recovery?
Bitcoin's short-term outlook depends on whether buyers can maintain support around $80,000–$82,000.
QCP Capital previously identified that region as a potential buying zone, while October's decline briefly pushed BTC below $80,000 before buyers returned.
A renewed move below $82,000 would expose the $80,000 psychological level. If that support fails, the $78,500–$80,000 region becomes a possible downside scenario rather than a confirmed target.
Alternatively, reclaiming $83,000 could open another test of $84,400–$85,000. Sustained buying above that region would strengthen the case for an eventual return toward October's $87,300 high.
An earlier short-term forecast also identified the $80,000 area as important, although its modeled probabilities are not reliable indicators of what will happen after the Fed announcement.
