Bitcoin briefly fell below $81,000 as the latest crypto selloff deepened, but QCP Capital sees the decline bringing BTC directly into a potential buying zone.
The Singapore-based trading firm identifies $80,000–$82,000 as an area where it would look to buy Bitcoin during the fourth quarter. Its base case keeps BTC between $80,000 and $90,000, according to QCP’s Q4 market outlook.
Bitcoin traded as low as roughly $80,900 before attempting to recover above $82,000, extending the BTC selloff that began after the cryptocurrency failed to sustain last week’s move above $87,000.
QCP Sees $80K-$82K as a Buying Zone
QCP describes the current Bitcoin market as a stalemate between structural crypto demand and an increasingly difficult macro environment.
Under its base case, the firm would accumulate around $80,000–$82,000 and consider reducing exposure around $88,000–$90,000 if institutional flows fail to improve.
That makes Bitcoin’s latest move particularly important. BTC is now trading almost exactly at the bottom of QCP’s expected Q4 range.
The firm’s bullish scenario would require a different combination of catalysts: sustained ETF inflows, expanding stablecoin supply, lower real yields, a softer dollar and progress on U.S. crypto legislation. Under those conditions, QCP sees Bitcoin potentially breaking above $100,000.
ETF Outflows Are the Biggest Immediate Risk
Institutional demand has moved in the opposite direction this week.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $485 million in net outflows on Oct. 7, with BlackRock, Fidelity and ARK among the biggest contributors. The latest ETF outflows erased the previous session’s inflows and removed an important source of marginal demand.
QCP specifically identifies ETF flows as one of the variables determining whether Bitcoin remains inside its $80,000–$90,000 range.
The macro backdrop remains difficult as well. Elevated Treasury yields, expensive oil and a strong dollar have all pressured speculative assets during the latest decline.
