Bitcoin’s long-term model points to major upside, with an investor-top target near $437,000. In the short term, however, BTC could sweep $64,700-$65,200 before reversing toward the $59,000-$61,000 zone.
Bitcoin Model Points to $437,000 as Next Cycle Target
Bitcoin could have far more room to rise if its next market cycle reaches the historical upper band of the two-year moving average model. The chart places that investor-top level near $437,000, while Michaël van de Poppe argues that a move above $500,000 remains possible.
BTC two-year SMA chart. Source: Checkonchain via Michaël van de Poppe/X.
The model uses Bitcoin’s two-year simple moving average as a long-term valuation guide. Its lower band has historically tracked broad accumulation areas, while the upper band, calculated at five times the moving average, has marked overheated phases near major cycle peaks.
Bitcoin is currently trading close to the lower investor band near $64,000, according to the chart. That position suggests the market remains far from the model’s projected upper boundary, although it does not mean price must reach that level during this cycle.
Van de Poppe expects the next bull market to extend further than the previous cycle, which produced a shallower advance than many traders expected. His argument is that investors may use the last cycle as their main reference and sell too early if momentum later accelerates.
The $437,000 level would require a major expansion in demand, liquidity and investor risk appetite. Bitcoin would also need to reclaim previous highs, establish a sustained long-term uptrend and avoid a breakdown below the model’s lower band.
The chart supports an ambitious long-term target, but it does not provide a clear timeline or guarantee a move above $400,000. The projection should therefore be treated as a cycle model rather than a confirmed price forecast.
Bitcoin Could Sweep $64,700 Before a Sharp Reversal
Bitcoin may first push above the equal highs near $64,664 as traders position ahead of the CPI release. The chart then projects a rejection from the $64,700-$65,200 area, followed by a deeper move toward $59,000-$61,000.
BTC intraday chart. Source: Kaz/X.
The equal highs create a visible liquidity pool above the current range, where short stops and breakout orders may be concentrated. A brief move through that level could collect liquidity without confirming a sustainable breakout.
The CPI release could provide the volatility needed for that sweep. However, price would need to fall back below $64,664 after the move to support the idea that the breakout was a trap rather than genuine strength.
Initial downside support sits near $62,100, followed by the $61,000 area. If sellers maintain control below those levels, the larger liquidity target near $59,700-$60,100 could come into play.
The bearish scenario would weaken if Bitcoin clears $65,200 and holds above the former highs. That would suggest buyers absorbed the overhead liquidity and could support further upside instead of the projected reversal.
