SpaceX shares closed at a record low Friday as investors looked past a major defense contract and focused on the company’s first public earnings report and an approaching wave of unlocked stock.
SPCX ended July 31 at $108.37 after touching $107.67 during the session. The stock now trades about 19.7% below its $135 initial public offering price, less than two months after its June 12 Nasdaq debut.
SpaceX Stock Remains Trapped in a Downtrend
The one-hour SpaceX chart shows a steady series of lower highs and lower lows. SPCX sits below its 50-period exponential moving average at $114.62, leaving sellers in control of the short-term trend.
The relative strength index stands near 38, below its signal line but above the commonly watched oversold level of 30. That reading shows weak momentum without confirming that the sell-off has run its course.
The $107-$108 area now provides immediate support. A break below that range could bring the psychological $100 level into view. On the upside, SPCX must first recover $112.82 and then close above the $114.62 moving average. A stronger move through $120 would improve the chances of a challenge to the $135 IPO price.
SpaceX Stock Tests Support Near $108. Source: TradingView
Bearish Chart Points to a Deeper SPCX Pullback
Market Wave Investor said SPCX had moved below its first downside target at $112.82. The accompanying daily chart identifies a broad potential buying area between $48.29 and $86.19, with $86.19 marking the upper boundary.
That projection represents a bearish technical scenario rather than a confirmed destination. The chart does not provide a timetable, while its wide target range leaves room for sharp volatility.
For now, $86.19 becomes relevant only if SPCX loses $107 and fails to attract buyers near $100. Holding the current low and reclaiming $114.62 would weaken the case for an immediate slide into the chart’s white zone.
SpaceX Stock Falls Below $112.82. Source: Market Wave Investor
Earnings and IPO Lockup Could Drive the Next Move
SpaceX will release its second-quarter results after the market closes Aug. 4. The report will mark its first earnings announcement since the IPO, giving investors fresh information on Starlink growth, launch revenue, spending and the company’s AI operations.
The report will also start the countdown to an important increase in tradable shares. About 911.5 million shares held by employees and some early investors are expected to become eligible for sale on the second trading day after earnings. Eligibility does not guarantee selling, but the additional supply could increase volatility in a stock already under pressure.
Meanwhile, SpaceX secured a $1.6 billion U.S. Space Force order for 18 Falcon 9 launches through 2027. The stock’s muted response suggests investors remain more concerned about valuation, earnings and post-IPO supply than new contract wins.
