Bitcoin’s on-chain indicators still point to a bear market, even as price moves toward the $65,000-$66,000 liquidity zone. A failed breakout there could turn the rally into a liquidity sweep and send BTC back toward $59,000-$61,000.
Bitcoin’s On-Chain Signals Still Point to a Bear Market
Bitcoin remains under pressure as three major on-chain indicators continue to trade below their neutral levels, according to Ali Charts. The readings suggest capitulation and accumulation are still shaping the market, even after recent price rebounds.
BTC on-chain indicators chart. Source: Ali Charts/X
The chart tracks adjusted spent output profit ratio, or aSOPR, alongside the Puell Multiple and Reserve Risk. All three remain below the zero line after being indexed against their neutral thresholds, showing that market participants, miners and long-term holders have not yet shifted into a clearly bullish position.
The aSOPR reading is the first level to watch because it measures whether spent Bitcoin is moving at an average profit or loss. A sustained move above zero would suggest coins are again being sold at a profit, which could mark an early improvement in market confidence.
The Puell Multiple remains negative, pointing to weaker miner revenue compared with its longer-term average. Meanwhile, the depressed Reserve Risk reading suggests confidence among long-term holders remains cautious despite Bitcoin trading near $64,200.
Together, the indicators support the view that Bitcoin is still moving through an accumulation phase rather than a confirmed bull market. A recovery in aSOPR, followed by breakouts in the Puell Multiple and Reserve Risk, would offer stronger evidence that the broader trend is changing.
However, these metrics do not provide an exact reversal date or guarantee that prices have reached a final bottom. Until the indicators reclaim their neutral levels, any rally may remain vulnerable to another pullback.
Bitcoin Liquidity Map Signals a Trap Near $66,000
Bitcoin is slowly moving toward the $65,000-$66,000 liquidity zone, but the chart suggests the rally could set up a reversal rather than a clean breakout. Analyst Kaz expects price to form a lower high near that area before targeting the heavy liquidity stacked below the market.
BTC liquidity heatmap. Source: Kaz/X
The heatmap shows a concentrated liquidity cluster above price near $65,600, making it a likely short-term target. Markets often move toward these areas because they contain stop orders and leveraged positions that can fuel a sharp move.
However, the larger liquidity pools remain below, particularly around $60,500-$61,500 and near $58,000. If Bitcoin sweeps the upper cluster and fails to hold above $66,000, traders may treat the move as a liquidity grab rather than the start of a stronger rally.
Kaz is watching July 14 as a possible turning point because the date aligns with the CPI release and the middle of the month. A rejection around $65,000-$66,000 could therefore open the way toward the $59,000-$61,000 region.
The bearish setup depends on Bitcoin forming a lower high and losing nearby support after the sweep. A sustained breakout above $66,000 would weaken the reversal case and suggest buyers have absorbed the liquidity overhead.
