XRP Hits Worst Average Returns in 12 Years as On-Chain Data Signals Potential Rebound
XRP holders are enduring some of the steepest unrealized losses in the token's history, but fresh on-chain data suggests the capitulation could be laying the groundwork for a strong rebound.
According to blockchain analytics platform Santiment, XRP's average trading returns have plunged to their lowest levels in nearly 12 years. The token's 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has dropped to -45%, while its 365-day MVRV stands at -47%, indicating that both short-term and long-term holders are, on average, deeply underwater.
The MVRV metric compares an asset's current market value with the average price investors paid for their holdings. Deeply negative readings typically signal widespread capitulation, with most holders sitting on unrealized losses.
What makes the current setup especially significant is that, for the first time in XRP's history, both short-term and long-term MVRV ratios have simultaneously reached such extreme lows. According to Santiment, this reflects an unprecedented level of investor pessimism and market exhaustion with the monthly RSI recently hitting record oversold levels.
XRP Shows Signs of a Major Reversal as On-Chain Metrics Hit Extremes
Historically, similar periods of extreme fear have often preceded major market reversals. As selling pressure eases and weak hands exit, even modest buying demand can trigger powerful relief rallies.
As a result, Santiment notes that comparable MVRV extremes have frequently marked attractive accumulation opportunities across the crypto market.
Nevertheless, caution should not be thrown to the wind since XRP could still face additional downside if broader market weakness persists. However, from a risk-reward perspective, current conditions appear considerably more favorable than periods when holders are sitting on significant unrealized profits.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.10, according to CoinCodex, placing the asset firmly within what many analysts consider a historically oversold range.
Supporting the bullish outlook, XRP continues to consolidate within a triangle formation while printing higher lows, a pattern often associated with strengthening momentum.
Furthermore, hundreds of millions of XRP have flowed off major cryptocurrency exchanges in recent weeks, a trend widely viewed as a sign of accumulation as investors move tokens into private wallets instead of leaving them available for sale.
Although short-term volatility remains likely, Santiment's latest on-chain data points to one of XRP's strongest accumulation zones on record. If broader market sentiment improves, the combination of record-low MVRV readings, sustained exchange outflows, and a strengthening technical structure could set the stage for a meaningful recovery.
