$2.7 trillion banking giant Citi has cut its 12-month Bitcoin price forecast to $82,000 from $112,000 after crypto ETF flows turned negative and investor demand weakened.
According to Reuters, Citi also lowered its Ether forecast to $2,240 from $3,175. The bank said crypto markets have come under pressure from persistent ETF outflows, weak investor appetite, slow U.S. crypto legislation, and concerns over possible Bitcoin selling by digital asset treasury firms.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading near $58,864, its weakest level since September 2024. Ethereum was also trading bearishly near $1,586, its lowest level since April 2025.
Citi Cuts Bitcoin and Ether Forecasts
Citi said its revised outlook assumes no new Bitcoin ETF inflows over the next 12 months. The bank cut its expected net ETF inflow estimate to zero from $10 billion.
“ETF flows, an important driver of prices, have turned negative recently,” Citi said, according to Reuters. The bank added that Bitcoin ETF flows were down about $3.3 billion so far this year.
Citi said its previous targets relied on rising interest from investors and financial advisers. The bank now expects broader adoption from traditional finance to remain paused until a new catalyst appears.
The bank’s bear-case scenario values Bitcoin at $53,000 and Ethereum at $1,094 over the next year. That case assumes recessionary macro conditions and continued ETF outflows.
Legislation Delay Adds to Market Pressure
Citi said slow progress on U.S. digital asset legislation (CLARITY Act) has hurt sentiment across the crypto market. It said legislation could act as a catalyst but now appears unlikely before the November U.S. midterm elections.
The bank also said the average Bitcoin ETF holder is now underwater. It noted that crypto prices are below their levels before the 2024 U.S. election.
Citi said crypto markets remain volatile and sentiment-driven. It said price action, ETF flows, on-chain activity, and off-chain activity can change quickly when sentiment shifts.
The bank also pointed to a rotation into AI-related assets. Investor attention around major expected IPOs and AI-linked trades has reduced demand for crypto assets, according to Citi.
Citi Cuts Strategy (MSTR) Target to $136
Citi also lowered its price target on Strategy to $136 from $260 while keeping a Buy rating. Strategy remains one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders, so its valuation is closely linked to Bitcoin price assumptions.
According to reports, Citi cut the Strategy target after reducing its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to about $81,800. Citi said, “Strategy’s updated capital plan strengthens liquidity and should provide more time for the company to stabilize.”
Source: X
As we reported, Strategy recently announced a new capital framework that includes a Bitcoin Monetization Program. The plan allows the company to sell over $1.25B in Bitcoin for reserves, dividends, interest payments, or buybacks when management considers it more useful than issuing equity.
Other firms have also revised Bitcoin-linked forecasts. TD Cowen reportedly cut its 2026 Bitcoin target to $100,000 from $140,000 and lowered its Strategy price target to $260 from $400, while keeping a Buy rating.
Polymarket Odds Show Downside Focus
Prediction market data shows traders assigning higher odds to lower Bitcoin targets than stronger upside moves. Polymarket odds showed a 79% chance of Bitcoin touching $55,000 and a 63% chance of BTC falling to $50,000.
Source: Polymarket
The odds also showed a 45% chance of Bitcoin reaching $45,000 and a 29% chance of BTC falling to $40,000. On the upside, traders assigned a 57% chance to Bitcoin moving above $70,000.
The chance of Bitcoin rising above $80,000 stood at 34%, while the chance of BTC moving above $65,000 was 74%. These odds show traders remain cautious as Bitcoin trades below $60,000.
Citi’s base case still places Bitcoin above current levels. However, the bank now expects a slower recovery unless ETF flows improve, U.S. legislation advances, or investor demand returns.
