One of China’s most prominent Bitcoin miners has calculated where the current Bitcoin bear market could bottom. According to his model, BTC may reach its cycle low between October and December 2026, with the price potentially falling to around $42,000-$44,000.
The main reason behind the bearish forecast is the sharp decline in Strategy’s mNAV ratio to 0.72. This level is now close to the absolute low recorded during the previous market cycle.
For this scenario to play out, Bitcoin would need to fall by another 30% from current levels.
Why mNAV May Signal A Coming Reversal
Jiang Zhuo’er, a major Chinese Bitcoin miner, shared his observations on X. He noted that Strategy’s key mNAV ratio had dropped to 0.72, nearly matching the historical low of 0.70 recorded on May 11, 2022. That period marked the crypto market’s painful shift from a rapid growth phase into a prolonged downturn.
| Comparison Parameter | Current Value | Historical Low, May 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Strategy mNAV Ratio | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| Approximate Bitcoin Price | Still forming | $31,017 |
The mNAV ratio compares the market value of Strategy shares with the net value of the company’s Bitcoin holdings per share. In other words, it shows how major U.S. investors are pricing MSTR relative to the Bitcoin it holds.
A value above 1 usually signals a premium and possible market overheating. A value below 1 suggests deep pessimism and potential undervaluation.
According to Jiang, the current level may mark the lowest mNAV reading of this four-year cycle. He also pointed to a significant divergence with the STRC indicator as another important signal.
In his view, this setup could create an arbitrage opportunity for large investors. The strategy would involve going long MSTR shares while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin.
Why The Bitcoin Price Bottom May Come Later
Jiang’s key point is that an mNAV bottom does not usually coincide with the Bitcoin price bottom. In the previous cycle, the two events were separated by roughly six months.
The mNAV ratio fell to 0.70 in May 2022, when Bitcoin was trading near $31,017. However, BTC did not reach its true bear-market low until November 21, 2022, when the price fell to $15,476. By that time, the mNAV ratio had already recovered to around 1.2.
A Four-Year Cycle Model Points To Late 2026
To estimate the timing of the next bottom, Jiang used a traditional four-year halving cycle model. Based on this framework, he identified October 31, 2026, as a possible date for a bearish cycle low near $44,016.
The model is based on the idea of a ball bouncing on the ground. With each bounce, the rebound becomes smaller. Jiang applies the same logic to Bitcoin, arguing that BTC volatility gradually decreases as its market capitalization grows.
Under this scenario, Bitcoin could still face a deeper correction before the next major cycle bottom forms. However, the forecast depends on historical cycle behavior repeating, which is never guaranteed in crypto markets.
