Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe said Bitcoin’s consolidation has not yet turned into a real breakout, while broader market sentiment still depends heavily on Strategy’s STRC preferred shares amid weakness in stock markets. He believes a break above $66,000 could become the trigger needed for markets to rally again.
Van de Poppe emphasized that as long as Bitcoin remains below that level, it is too early to speak about sustained upside. In his view, if BTC moves lower, sweeps new lows, and quickly reclaims the lost level, that could become a strong signal for a potential long position.
What Is Wrong With Strategy’s Model?
The analyst described the intermediate zones between the key levels as unfavorable for trading. According to Van de Poppe, the main objective this week is for Bitcoin to hold the 200-week moving average, a level that has acted as a market bottom in several previous cycles.
The dependence on STRC highlighted by Van de Poppe was also explained by another analyst writing under the pseudonym WilcosX. He argued that STRC’s decline below $100 is not just a story about preferred shares weakening, but “a direct blow to Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation machine.”
According to him, the previous mechanism was simple: Strategy issued STRC near $100, paid high dividends, used the proceeds to buy BTC, and Bitcoin’s price growth helped support the entire structure.
Why This Could Hurt Bitcoin Buying
According to WilcosX, the consequences could be cascading. Strategy’s cost of capital rises, making new issuance less attractive. If the company sells STRC below par, it raises less capital while still paying dividends based on the full $100 stated value. That weakens the “issue preferred shares, buy BTC” engine.
As a result, cryptocurrency purchases could slow. WilcosX argued that if STRC stops being an efficient funding channel, Strategy will have fewer easy ways to increase its BTC holdings without relying on common stock, debt, cash reserves, or even small Bitcoin sales.
Some of those concerns have already materialized. The company suspended new share issuance through its at-the-market program and, for the first time, sold a portion of its BTC to pay dividends.
WilcosX stressed that he does not yet see this as a complete collapse of Strategy’s model. However, he believes STRC’s decline below par exposes a weakness in the structure: the Bitcoin treasury flywheel works well when capital is cheap, but becomes much more fragile when the market demands more than 13% for funding.
