WTI crude oil prices traded below $74 per barrel on Tuesday, while Brent crude held below $78 as traders evaluated developments in negotiations between the United States and Iran and the implications for global energy supplies.
The market has already undergone a dramatic shift in recent weeks. Oil prices have fallen roughly 40% from their conflict-driven highs after the two countries reached an interim peace agreement aimed at reducing tensions and restoring trade flows through the Persian Gulf.
Investors are now focusing on whether recent diplomatic progress can translate into a lasting resolution that supports stable energy exports from the region.
US Waiver Boosts Expectations for Iranian Exports
A major development came with the introduction of a 60-day US waiver that allows global buyers, including American refiners, to purchase Iranian crude oil and refined fuels.
The move has fueled expectations that Iranian exports could continue increasing in the near term. According to recent reports, Iran exported more than 30 million barrels of crude and petroleum products during the past week alone.
Meanwhile, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have developed alternative shipping arrangements that are helping restore supply flows across the region.
The prospect of rising exports from multiple Persian Gulf producers has helped keep downward pressure on crude prices despite lingering geopolitical risks.
Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to recover
Market participants are also closely monitoring shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy chokepoints.
Data from maritime tracking firm Kpler showed that 35 commercial vessels crossed the strait on Monday, making it the busiest day since the conflict began.
While that represents a significant improvement, traffic remains well below historical levels. Current transit volumes are estimated at roughly one-third of pre-war activity, though actual numbers could be higher because some vessels continue operating with tracking transponders disabled.
Iran's chief negotiator cautioned that the Strait of Hormuz would "never return to its pre-war conditions," signaling that Tehran intends to maintain substantial influence over the strategic waterway.
Dispute emerges over nuclear inspections
Despite signs of progress, differences between Washington and Tehran remain evident.
President Donald Trump stated Tuesday that Iran had "fully and completely agreed" to allow extensive nuclear inspections as part of the ongoing negotiations. Vice President JD Vance also suggested that inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency could return to Iranian facilities as early as this week.
Source: Donald J Trump via X
However, Iranian officials publicly disputed those claims.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei said there were currently no plans for inspectors to revisit several sensitive nuclear sites damaged during previous US and Israeli military operations.
The disagreement highlights the challenges negotiators still face as they work toward a comprehensive agreement.
Oil market remains focused on long-term stability
Although crude prices have stabilized, traders remain cautious about the longer-term outlook.
The future direction of the market will likely depend on several unresolved issues, including Iran's nuclear program, implementation of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon, and the full restoration of commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
For now, rising exports and improving shipping conditions are helping offset geopolitical concerns. However, any setbacks in negotiations could quickly alter sentiment and reignite volatility across global energy markets.
As talks continue, oil traders appear content to keep WTI near $74 and Brent around $78 while waiting for greater clarity on the next phase of US-Iran relations.
